928
FXUS61 KOKX 271137
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
737 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure slowly moves off the northern New England coast
today as high pressure builds in from the west through tonight.
The high will then remain in control Monday before pushing off
the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday night into Tuesday. A frontal
system moves across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. High pressure briefly returns late Wednesday into
Thursday before another frontal system impacts the area for
the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Closed upper low/trough over the area early this morning will
slide offshore through this evening. The cyclonic flow aloft
will lead to scattered to broken stratocu clouds through the day
with the greatest coverage across the interior. Otherwise, the
main concern for today will be with strong, gusty NW flow.
Forecast soundings show mixing up to around 5 kft where winds
are likely to run between 35-40 kt. The mixing, cold advection,
and subsidence behind the departing upper low/trough will
support sustained winds and gusts just below advisory levels.
NBM deterministic guidance has been running too weak with winds
for the last several months, especially in cold advection and NW
flow regimes. This appears to be no exception today and have
raised sustained winds and wind gusts a bit above the NBM 90th
percentile. Sustained NW winds 20-25 mph are likely with gusts
30-40 mph. Isolated gusts up to 45 mph are possible. Strong cold
advection will lead to below normal temperatures in the middle
to upper 50s inland to around 60 degrees close to the coast.
The pressure gradient begins relaxing tonight as the
aforementioned low pressure pushes further east allowing high
pressure to settle closer to the area. Lingering stratocu clouds
in the evening should clear as the moisture trapped beneath a
subsidence inversion around 5 kft diminishes. Gusty conditions
will continue in the evening, but should begin dropping off
overnight. Winds will likely become light across the western
half of the area early Monday morning as the high builds in, but
could still see breezy conditions hold on further east across
Long Island and southeast Connecticut. Lows will generally be in
the 40s except for the NYC metro where lows will fall to the
low 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Ridging at the surface and aloft will dominate the weather on
Monday. Winds will be much weaker compared to Sunday and
generally shift to a light W or SW flow. The air mass will also
moderate allowing warmer temperatures to return to the region.
High temperatures are expected to reach the lower 70s for much
of the area. The surface high will begin to shift to our south
and move off the Middle Atlantic coast Monday night. Other than
a few high clouds, skies will continue to be mostly clear. Lows
will be a bit milder compared to Sunday night and general in the
upper 40s inland and lower 50s closer to the coast.
The upper ridge axis will remain over the area on Tuesday with
high pressure remaining off the Middle Atlantic and Southeast
coasts. The next shortwave then pushes across the Great Lakes
Tuesday with its associated frontal system starting to approach.
The frontal system nears the area Tuesday evening, but much of
the forcing passes well to our north. Model guidance has
continued to show diminishing QPF fields as the system arrives
Tuesday evening/Tuesday night. Will continue to show a slight
chance for showers Tuesday evening, but would not be surprised
if this time period ends up dry given the overall setup with
this system. Highs on Tuesday will continue above normal with
upper 70s and low 80s in NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley, and NYC
metro. Elsewhere, highs will be in the upper 60s to middle 70s
due to increasing S flow off the colder ocean. Mild lows
expected Tuesday night in the 50s areawide.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Global models and their ensembles are in relatively good
agreement with a flattened h5 ridge axis over us Wednesday
through Thursday, shifting to our east on Friday, then a trough
moving in on Saturday. The greatest potential impacts would
appear to be associated with an attendant surface low pressure
system that passes to our north during Friday and sends a cold
front through the region Friday afternoon or evening. Highest
overall chances (50-60%) of rain appear to be Thursday night
with the advance of a leading warm front, with a slightly lower
probability Friday afternoon into evening with the cold front.
Thunder will be possible Friday afternoon into evening, but too
early to have high confidence in severe wx potential. Given
modeled shear and CAPE, strong wind gusts could be a factor.
NBM looked good for high temps, which will likely be at or
above normal during the long term period. Greatest uncertainty
is on Friday, where even locations away from any potential
onshore flow influence show deterministic numbers below the 25th
percentile, suggesting highs could be warmer than currently
forecast. Rainfall probability and timing during Friday factor
into this uncertainty.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds in from the west through tonight.
VFR. NW winds 20G25-30kt increase 25G35kt later this morning
and last through around sundown. Winds diminish this evening
with gusts ending after midnight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Peak gusts mostly around 35kt through around 14z with around 40kt
possible thereafter until 00z.
Winds likely favor left/south of 310 magnetic until around
14-15z, then right/north of it thereafter.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of MVFR with showers at
night. SW gusts 20-25 possible in the afternoon and evening.
Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: VFR during day. MVFR possible with a chance of
showers and slight chance of thunderstorms at night.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
No changes made to the SCA on the waters. NW winds will
continue to increase through this morning with gusts around 30
kt continuing through this evening. A few gusts close to gale
force are possible nearshore. Winds will start weakening this
evening and should subside below 25 kt by around midnight. Ocean
seas 5-6 ft today will subside below 5 ft tonight. Conditions
will then remain below SCA levels Monday into Monday night with
a weak pressure gradient. S flow increases on Tuesday ahead of
the next cold front. This will increase wind gusts to 25 kt,
mainly on the ocean, Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. Ocean
seas will also build to around 5 ft.
Conditions on the ocean fall below advisory thresholds likely by
the end of Wednesday morning, with sub-advisory conditions for
the rest of the forecast period.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS