okx-afd on 2025-04-27

932
FXUS61 KOKX 271958
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
358 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure remains in control through Monday and pushes
offshore into Tuesday. A frontal system moves across the area
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. High pressure briefly
returns late Wednesday into Thursday before another frontal
system impacts the area Thursday night into Saturday. High
pressure then builds in for the end of next weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --An upper level trough and associated surface low pressure over the
Canadian Maritimes continues to move to the northeast as
upper level ridging builds overhead tonight. This will allow
the mostly cloudy skies for much of the interior to become
progressively clearer this evening. Surface high pressure over the
Great Lakes region shifts overhead tonight allowing for the gusty
winds to gradually diminish. Lows tonight will be in the middle to
upper 40s for much of the area. The NYC metro may not drop out of
the low 50s with the interior portions of the LHV possibly dropping
into the low 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure shifts overhead Monday and gradually slides south of
the area into the evening. This will allow for light flow under
clear skies. Ample sunshine during the day will promote relatively
deep mixing of the BL. As mid-level heights rise with the upper
level ridging, this deep mixing will allow temperatures to warm into
the low to middle 70s throughout the area. Deeper mixing near
the NYC metro may allow temperatures to rise into the upper 70s.

Given the light flow and deep BL mixing, this will allow for a
drying of the BL through the day, with dewpoints dropping into the
middle to low 30s. This will allow for RH values to fall near 20
percent which is significantly dry, though given the light flow and
recent rainfall, there aren`t any fire weather concerns at this
time.

High pressure slides south of the area by Monday night allowing
for clear skies but a light SW flow. This will increase moisture and
continue to increase mid-level heights setting up for a warmer day
for Tuesday. Lows Monday night will be in the upper 40s to low
50s.-- End Changed Discussion --

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --There is definitely better agreement than 24h ago, specifically with
the timing issues with the end of the week frontal system.
An anomalously strong upper ridge (+1-2SD) over the eastern third of
the country at the start of the period will work east and offshore
by Thursday. Interaction between the northern and southern branches
across the upper Midwest will send a frontal system over top of the
ridge. The associated warm front lifts across the area late Tuesday,
followed by a cold frontal passage Wednesday morning. The latter of
which looks uneventful with weak forcing and little moisture. High
pressure then briefly follows Wednesday night into the first half of
Thursday before the front lifts north as a warm front late Thursday,
followed by a cold frontal passage Friday night. Overall timing is
faster, but not as quick as the GFS was 24h ago. The 12Z operational
globals all pointing to the potential for mainly dry conditions
Saturday barring no changes. However, this is still 5 days out.
The second frontal system remains the stronger of the two with a
good chance of showers/possible thunder with the warm front Thursday
night and then ahead of the cold front Friday night. Friday may
actually dry out in the warm sector and could very well be the
warmest day of the week.

As for temperatures, they will be above normal through the mid week.
Highs will be 75-80 away from the coast, and 60s/70s along the
coast. Temperatures fall back to seasonable on Thursday, with 60s
expected region-wide, with warmer readings expected for Friday ahead
of the next frontal system. NBM box and whisker plots show very
little spread through Tuesday, but then larger spreads Wednesday
with the timing of the cooler air behind the cold front. Friday has
the potential to be the warmest day of the week in the warm sector.
Median temps (50th percentile) are well into the 80s away from the
coast.-- End Changed Discussion --

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the west through tonight.

VFR. Winds will be from the NW around 25kt with gusts to 35kt
for much of the day. Can not rule out a few occasional higher
gusts. The gusts should diminish after sundown, with gusts
ending after midnight.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Peak gusts around 40kt possible until 00z.

Wind direction may be on either side of 310.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday afternoon: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of MVFR with showers at
night. SW gusts 20-25 possible in the afternoon and evening.

Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: VFR during day. MVFR possible with a chance of
showers and slight chance of thunderstorms at night.

Friday: Sub-VFR in showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --SCAs remain in effect for all waters through this evening with
widespread wind gusts of 25-30kt. Some nearshore gale-force gusts
will remain possible through 00Z. Non-ocean waters SCAs drop at 2Z
with the gusts. Wave heights should gradually fall such that SCAs
are able to be dropped by 6-7Z tonight. Sub-SCA conditions then
prevail through at least Monday night.

S flow increases on Tuesday ahead of the next cold front. This will
increase wind gusts to 25 kt, mainly on the ocean, Tuesday evening
into Tuesday night. Ocean seas will also build to around 4 to 7 ft.
Conditions on the ocean fall below advisory thresholds likely by the
end of Wednesday morning, with sub-advisory conditions for the rest
of the forecast period.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS...DW/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DW/MW
HYDROLOGY...DW/MW