okx-afd on 2025-04-27

980
FXUS61 KOKX 280025
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
825 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --Low pressure along the New England coast lifts slowly to the
northeast, while high pressure builds in from the west into
Monday. The high then gives way to a frontal system Monday
night into Tuesday that moves across the area Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. High pressure briefly returns late
Wednesday into Thursday before another frontal system impacts
the area Thursday night into Saturday. High pressure then builds
in for the end of next weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --An upper level trough/low and associated surface low pressure
along the New England coast and Canadian Maritimes will
continue to move to the northeast. This will allow for ridging
both aloft and at the surface to build east with clearing skies
and diminishing winds. Lows tonight will be in the middle to
upper 40s for much of the area. The NYC metro may not drop out
of the low 50s with the interior portions of the LHV possibly
dropping into the low 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure shifts overhead Monday and gradually slides south of
the area into the evening. This will allow for light flow under
clear skies. Ample sunshine during the day will promote relatively
deep mixing of the BL. As mid-level heights rise with the upper
level ridging, this deep mixing will allow temperatures to warm into
the low to middle 70s throughout the area. Deeper mixing near
the NYC metro may allow temperatures to rise into the upper 70s.

Given the light flow and deep BL mixing, this will allow for a
drying of the BL through the day, with dewpoints dropping into the
middle to low 30s. This will allow for RH values to fall near 20
percent which is significantly dry, though given the light flow and
recent rainfall, there aren`t any fire weather concerns at this
time.

High pressure slides south of the area by Monday night allowing
for clear skies but a light SW flow. This will increase moisture and
continue to increase mid-level heights setting up for a warmer day
for Tuesday. Lows Monday night will be in the upper 40s to low
50s.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --There is definitely better agreement than 24h ago, specifically with
the timing issues with the end of the week frontal system.
An anomalously strong upper ridge (+1-2SD) over the eastern third of
the country at the start of the period will work east and offshore
by Thursday. Interaction between the northern and southern branches
across the upper Midwest will send a frontal system over top of the
ridge. The associated warm front lifts across the area late Tuesday,
followed by a cold frontal passage Wednesday morning. The latter of
which looks uneventful with weak forcing and little moisture. High
pressure then briefly follows Wednesday night into the first half of
Thursday before the front lifts north as a warm front late Thursday,
followed by a cold frontal passage Friday night. Overall timing is
faster, but not as quick as the GFS was 24h ago. The 12Z operational
globals all pointing to the potential for mainly dry conditions
Saturday barring no changes. However, this is still 5 days out.
The second frontal system remains the stronger of the two with a
good chance of showers/possible thunder with the warm front Thursday
night and then ahead of the cold front Friday night. Friday may
actually dry out in the warm sector and could very well be the
warmest day of the week.

As for temperatures, they will be above normal through the mid week.
Highs will be 75-80 away from the coast, and 60s/70s along the
coast. Temperatures fall back to seasonable on Thursday, with 60s
expected region-wide, with warmer readings expected for Friday ahead
of the next frontal system. NBM box and whisker plots show very
little spread through Tuesday, but then larger spreads Wednesday
with the timing of the cooler air behind the cold front. Friday has
the potential to be the warmest day of the week in the warm sector.
Median temps (50th percentile) are well into the 80s away from the
coast. However, went with the cooler NBM deterministic at this
early juncture.-- End Changed Discussion --

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure builds in through much of the TAF period and eventually
will move offshore Monday night.

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. NW wind gusts
will be on a downward trend tonight, diminishing overnight.

NW winds near 15-20 kt with gusts near 25-30 kt expected this
evening. These winds will lower to near 10-15 kt with gusts
near 20-25 kt late this evening. Winds decrease to near 7-10 kt
overnight with gusts ending.

Winds will become more W-SW Monday afternoon without much
change in speed, still near 10 kt.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gust end time could be 1-3 hours off from TAF.

Timing of more SW flow Monday could be 1-3 hours off from TAF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday night: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of MVFR and showers at night. SW wind
gusts 15-20 kt afternoon and at night.

Wednesday: VFR. W-NW wind gusts 15-20 kt during day.

Thursday: VFR during day. MVFR or lower possible with a chance
of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms at night.

Friday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers. Slight chance
of thunderstorms. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into early
evening.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --SCAs remain in effect for all waters through this evening with
widespread wind gusts of 25-30kt. Non-ocean waters SCAs drop at
2Z with the gusts. Wave heights should gradually fall such that
SCAs are able to be dropped by 6-7Z tonight. Sub-SCA conditions
then prevail through at least Monday night.

S flow increases on Tuesday ahead of the next cold front. This will
increase wind gusts to 25 kt, mainly on the ocean, Tuesday evening
into Tuesday night. Ocean seas will also build to around 4 to 7 ft.
Conditions on the ocean fall below advisory thresholds by early
afternoon Wednesday, with sub-advisory conditions for the rest
of the forecast period.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS...DW/MW
NEAR TERM...DW/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...DW/MW
HYDROLOGY...DW/MW