925
FXUS61 KOKX 282055 CCA
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
455 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure overhead will shift offshore tonight. A cold front
approaches from the west late Tuesday and passes through Wednesday
morning. High pressure then returns for Wednesday and Thursday
before another frontal system impacts the area Thursday night
through Saturday. High pressure builds in for the end of the
weekend into early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
High pressure continues to be in control through tonight as it
shifts offshore to the south. A light S/SW flow will develop tonight
and increase into Tuesday morning. Dry and clear conditions are
expected tonight with low temperatures generally in the upper 40s to
low 50s, though the NYC metro may not drop out of the middle 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains offshore to the southeast on Tuesday. This
will allow for generally clear to mostly clear skies much of the day
with dry conditions. A large frontal system over the Great Lakes is
poised to move well north of the area, dragging a cold front through
the area by the evening. Ahead of this frontal system, the pressure
gradient tightens as the frontal system approaches the high pressure
offshore. This will allow for an increased SW flow through the day
with gusts over the area anywhere from 20-30 mph.
High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s to middle 80s
for the Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, the NYC metro, and portions of
extreme SW CT. Elsewhere along the coast, a S/SW flow off the
relatively cool ocean will prevent high temperatures from rising
past the upper 60s to low 70s.
Given the deep mixing expected through the day for the warmest
aforementioned areas, dew points are expected to remain in the 40s,
despite a persistent SW flow. This deeper mixing and warm
temperatures will cause RH values to possible reach 25-40%. This dry
air combined with potentially gusty winds may allow for the elevated
risk of fire spread. As such, collaborated an SPS for the Lower
Hudson Valley and CT to address this potential.
Clouds increase from west to east late afternoon with the approach
of the frontal system. Any convection well to the west of the area
is expected to rapidly diminish in intensity and coverage by the
time it reaches the area, though some residual showers or possibly
even a thunderstorm remains possible for portions of the Lower
Hudson Valley, mainly between 8-11PM. The front moves through
overnight Tuesday and into early Wednesday morning, but should be a
fairly dry passage. Lows Tuesday night are expected to be in the
middle 50s to low 60s, fairly warm for this time of year.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Still seeing some flip flopping in regards to the timing of the
frontal system at the end of the week. This is noted in the 12Z
operational runs where the cold front slows up on Saturday with
the potential for frontal wave development. The faster trend
24h ago for Saturday has now has revered itself. Bottom line,
Pac energy is still offshore. The latter of which interacts
with an upper low over the Four Corners region at the beginning
of the period. Thus, the uncertainty.
At the start of the period, surface high pressure builds in
behind the departing cold front Wednesday morning. High pressure
remains in control through most of Thursday. At the same time,
the upper trough begins to amplify over the Mississippi Valley
as multiple streams interact with one another. This will allow
backing of the upper flow and the warm front to lift north
across the area Thursday night. Area will then be in the warm-
sectored on Friday. Low pressure tracking across eastern Canada
sends the cold front across the area Friday night into Saturday
with potential frontal wave development delaying its eastward
progression. So there are good chances for showers/possible
thunderstorms from Thursday night into Saturday. Right now
there is a low probability of severe weather. QPF looks modest,
under an inch outside any localized convective maxima. However,
with the slowing of the boundary this will have to be watched.
Wednesday remains unseasonably warm in the 70s as cold advection
lags behind the cold front. Expect seasonable temperatures on
Thursday, highs in the 60s and lower 70s. Region then is warm
sectored Friday, setting up one of the warmest days this week.
Temperatures away from maritime influence, generally west of the
Hudson River, likely climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s,
with potential for mid 80s. Cooler along the immediate coast
with onshore southerly flow, closer to 70. The region falls back
to a more typical air mass for the time of year over the
weekend into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure settles slides offshore tonight. A warm front
approaches late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening.
VFR thru TAF period.
Winds back more to the SW late this evening, especially at immediate
coastal terminals, with speeds remaining around or under 10 kt.
General light SW flow then continues overnight, before speeds
increase into mid to late Tuesday AM, with gusts 20 to 25 kt
developing by afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of wind shift into early this evening for KLGA and
KTEB could be 1-2 hours off from TAF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday afternoon / night: VFR Tuesday afternoon, and mostly VFR
Tuesday night. Slight chance of MVFR with showers later at night. SW
wind gusts 20 to 25 kt afternoon and at night.
Wednesday: VFR. W-NW wind gusts around 20 kt mainly during the
morning and early afternoon, winds lighter later in the afternoon.
Thursday: VFR during day. MVFR or lower possible with a chance of
showers and slight chance of thunderstorms at night.
Friday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers. Slight
chance of thunderstorms. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into early
evening.
Saturday: MVFR possible in rain / showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through tonight. Wind picks up on
Tuesday ahead of a frontal system allowing for gusts to 25-30kt on
all waters by the afternoon. SCAs are in effect for all waters
through at least Tuesday evening. Winds drop below SCA conditions
overnight Tuesday, though SCA conditions due lingering seas
may continue into Wednesday morning on the ocean. High pressure
then builds across the waters into Thursday with sub-SCA conditions.
A strengthening southerly flow ahead of the next frontal system
may bring a period of SCA conditions on the ocean Friday into
Friday night, with wind gusts up to 25 kt and seas 5 to 6 ft.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions with the combination of low relative humidity values
between 25 and 40 percent and frequent wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph
will create an elevated risk for fire spread on Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomically high tides will couple with a modest SW flow to
allow water levels to approach or just exceed minor flood
thresholds in the more vulnerable locales of coastal Nassau,
Queens, and Fairfield during times of high tide early this week.
A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for this evening`s high
tide cycle in the above mentioned areas, with up to a half foot
of inundation possible. There is potential for an additional
statement once again Tuesday evening.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday
for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday
for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DW/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...DW/MW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...DW/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...