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FXUS61 KOKX 282055 CCA
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
455 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure overhead will shift offshore tonight. A cold front approaches from the west late Tuesday and passes through Wednesday morning. High pressure then returns for Wednesday and Thursday before another frontal system impacts the area Thursday night through Saturday. High pressure builds in for the end of the weekend into early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... High pressure continues to be in control through tonight as it shifts offshore to the south. A light S/SW flow will develop tonight and increase into Tuesday morning. Dry and clear conditions are expected tonight with low temperatures generally in the upper 40s to low 50s, though the NYC metro may not drop out of the middle 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure remains offshore to the southeast on Tuesday. This will allow for generally clear to mostly clear skies much of the day with dry conditions. A large frontal system over the Great Lakes is poised to move well north of the area, dragging a cold front through the area by the evening. Ahead of this frontal system, the pressure gradient tightens as the frontal system approaches the high pressure offshore. This will allow for an increased SW flow through the day with gusts over the area anywhere from 20-30 mph. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s to middle 80s for the Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, the NYC metro, and portions of extreme SW CT. Elsewhere along the coast, a S/SW flow off the relatively cool ocean will prevent high temperatures from rising past the upper 60s to low 70s. Given the deep mixing expected through the day for the warmest aforementioned areas, dew points are expected to remain in the 40s, despite a persistent SW flow. This deeper mixing and warm temperatures will cause RH values to possible reach 25-40%. This dry air combined with potentially gusty winds may allow for the elevated risk of fire spread. As such, collaborated an SPS for the Lower Hudson Valley and CT to address this potential. Clouds increase from west to east late afternoon with the approach of the frontal system. Any convection well to the west of the area is expected to rapidly diminish in intensity and coverage by the time it reaches the area, though some residual showers or possibly even a thunderstorm remains possible for portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, mainly between 8-11PM. The front moves through overnight Tuesday and into early Wednesday morning, but should be a fairly dry passage. Lows Tuesday night are expected to be in the middle 50s to low 60s, fairly warm for this time of year. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Still seeing some flip flopping in regards to the timing of the frontal system at the end of the week. This is noted in the 12Z operational runs where the cold front slows up on Saturday with the potential for frontal wave development. The faster trend 24h ago for Saturday has now has revered itself. Bottom line, Pac energy is still offshore. The latter of which interacts with an upper low over the Four Corners region at the beginning of the period. Thus, the uncertainty. At the start of the period, surface high pressure builds in behind the departing cold front Wednesday morning. High pressure remains in control through most of Thursday. At the same time, the upper trough begins to amplify over the Mississippi Valley as multiple streams interact with one another. This will allow backing of the upper flow and the warm front to lift north across the area Thursday night. Area will then be in the warm- sectored on Friday. Low pressure tracking across eastern Canada sends the cold front across the area Friday night into Saturday with potential frontal wave development delaying its eastward progression. So there are good chances for showers/possible thunderstorms from Thursday night into Saturday. Right now there is a low probability of severe weather. QPF looks modest, under an inch outside any localized convective maxima. However, with the slowing of the boundary this will have to be watched. Wednesday remains unseasonably warm in the 70s as cold advection lags behind the cold front. Expect seasonable temperatures on Thursday, highs in the 60s and lower 70s. Region then is warm sectored Friday, setting up one of the warmest days this week. Temperatures away from maritime influence, generally west of the Hudson River, likely climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s, with potential for mid 80s. Cooler along the immediate coast with onshore southerly flow, closer to 70. The region falls back to a more typical air mass for the time of year over the weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure settles slides offshore tonight. A warm front approaches late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. VFR thru TAF period. Winds back more to the SW late this evening, especially at immediate coastal terminals, with speeds remaining around or under 10 kt. General light SW flow then continues overnight, before speeds increase into mid to late Tuesday AM, with gusts 20 to 25 kt developing by afternoon. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of wind shift into early this evening for KLGA and KTEB could be 1-2 hours off from TAF. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Tuesday afternoon / night: VFR Tuesday afternoon, and mostly VFR Tuesday night. Slight chance of MVFR with showers later at night. SW wind gusts 20 to 25 kt afternoon and at night. Wednesday: VFR. W-NW wind gusts around 20 kt mainly during the morning and early afternoon, winds lighter later in the afternoon. Thursday: VFR during day. MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms at night. Friday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into early evening. Saturday: MVFR possible in rain / showers. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions are expected through tonight. Wind picks up on Tuesday ahead of a frontal system allowing for gusts to 25-30kt on all waters by the afternoon. SCAs are in effect for all waters through at least Tuesday evening. Winds drop below SCA conditions overnight Tuesday, though SCA conditions due lingering seas may continue into Wednesday morning on the ocean. High pressure then builds across the waters into Thursday with sub-SCA conditions. A strengthening southerly flow ahead of the next frontal system may bring a period of SCA conditions on the ocean Friday into Friday night, with wind gusts up to 25 kt and seas 5 to 6 ft. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions with the combination of low relative humidity values between 25 and 40 percent and frequent wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph will create an elevated risk for fire spread on Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... There are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomically high tides will couple with a modest SW flow to allow water levels to approach or just exceed minor flood thresholds in the more vulnerable locales of coastal Nassau, Queens, and Fairfield during times of high tide early this week. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for this evening`s high tide cycle in the above mentioned areas, with up to a half foot of inundation possible. There is potential for an additional statement once again Tuesday evening. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DW/MW NEAR TERM...MW SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...JE MARINE...DW/MW FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...DW/MW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...