314
FXUS61 KOKX 291142
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
742 AM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches from the west today and passes through late
tonight into early Wednesday morning. High pressure then returns for
much of Wednesday and Thursday. A warm front approaches Thursday
night and lifts through the region on Friday, with an attendant
cold front following during Saturday. Thereafter, high pressure
attempts to build in from the west into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SW-S winds for today with high pressure centered off the Mid-
Atlantic coast. With mostly sunny conditions and mixing up to 900-
850mb for western portions of the forecast area unaffected by an
onshore flow, went a few degrees above deterministic NBM, which has
been consistently below its 25th percentile for the past several
runs. Highs ranging from the low-mid 80s in the urban corridor of NE
NJ to the upper 60s for the south-facing shores of LI and SE CT.
Given the deep mixing expected through the day for the warmest
areas, dew points are expected to remain mostly 40-45 despite a
persistent SW flow. This deeper mixing and warm temperatures will
cause RH values to drop to 25-35% this afternoon. This dry air
combined with wind gusts 25-30 mph may allow for the elevated risk
of fire spread. As such, a collaborated SPS for Northeast NJ, the
Lower Hudson Valley and CT is posted to address this potential this
afternoon into early evening.
Weakening convection ahead of an approaching cold front brings
chances (20-40%) of residual showers pushing into the forecast area
tonight. A rumble of thunder still cannot be ruled out over the
Lower Hudson Valley and vicinity during the earlier evening hours.
Any convection that survives will likely be below severe thresholds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front is expected to be in the vicinity of eastern LI at
sunrise Wednesday. Building surface high pressure follows through
the day and remains in control through Thursday as ridging continues
aloft. Dry weather through at least Thursday afternoon. For highs on
Wednesday, went closer to the warmer 50th percentile NBM given the
progged temps at the top of the mixed layer and a NW flow.
Deterministic NBM looked good for Thursday with an onshore flow and
more clouds around vs Weds.
Surface low pressure shifts NE through the eastern Great Lakes
Region during Thursday night. A leading warm front is progged to
reach part of the forecast area by daybreak Friday. Increased
moisture with 850mb theta-e advection and isentropic lift bring
chances (40-50%) of light rain or showers mainly after midnight.
Can`t rule out an isolated rumble of thunder with some elevated
instability, but it appears that any rainfall will more likely be
relatively on the lighter side as guidance has consistently shown
modest qpf totals for several days now.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Digging trough into the Great Lakes region with a couple embedded
shortwaves sends a frontal system toward the region late this week.
Associated warm front lifts thru locally Friday morning, with
scattered showers possible to start before drying for the bulk of
the afternoon. Attendant cold front then approaches late in the day,
instigating another round of showers and perhaps tstorms as well
ahead of the boundary Friday evening and night. Guidance is also
converging on a frontal wave of low pressure developing along the
boundary as it moves east, producing additional wet weather
Saturday. The probability for severe weather is low. QPF outside any
convective maxima thru this time should largely remain under an
inch, though the slower progression of the entire system could
enhance totals just a bit further.
Considerable uncertainty in the forecast moving into early next
week, hinging on whether the associated upper low is able to
sufficiently pass east, or cut off from the flow and meander nearby
for several days. EPS and GEPS lean toward a cutoff solution,
leading to a much more dreary outlook. Meanwhile, the bulk of 00Z
GEFS members keep the system moving east, with high pressure quickly
building in behind it early next week. Associated Pac energy remains
offshore, and better sampling should help resolve the solution over
the next day or two as it moves into British Columbia.
The region lies in the warm sector of the system on Friday and sets
up the mildest day of the period. Temperatures away from maritime
influence, generally west of the Hudson River, likely climb into the
upper 70s and lower 80s, with potential for mid 80s. Cooler along
the immediate coast with onshore southerly flow, closer to 70. The
region should fall back to more typical conditions behind the system
early next week as high pressure attempts to return, though
temperatures could be cooler should a meandering upper low remain
nearby.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains centered offshore today ahead of an
approaching cold front. The front moves through early Wednesday.
VFR thru the day.
General S/SW flow today, speeds increase to start with gusts 20
to 25 kt developing by late morning, and a sea breeze likely
contributing a few additional knots to coastal terminals into
the afternoon. Gusts persist this evening and into tonight, and
LLWS is possible for a period at KISP and KGON with winds at
2kft above 40 kt. An approaching cold front introduces the
chance for a few rain showers, mainly north and west of NYC
terminals after 3Z. Conditions dry behind the front, with flow
veering NW into mid Wed AM.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Isolated gusts 30 to 35 kt possible late this afternoon into early
evening.
Brief MVFR conds possible tonight with a slight chance of rain
showers.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Late tonight: A chance of rain showers north and west of NYC
terminals with brief MVFR possible. A slight chance of showers for
other terminals. A slight chance of thunderstorms, mainly in the
evening north and west of NYC terminals. SW wind gusts near 20 kt,
becoming more westerly late. LLWS east of NYC terminals with SW
winds at 2kft near 40-45 kt.
Wednesday: VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt during the day.
Thursday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible at night with a chance
of showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.
Friday: MVFR or lower possible. A chance of showers. A chance of
thunderstorms during the day. A slight chance of thunderstorms at
night. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into evening.
Saturday: MVFR or lower possible. A chance of showers. A slight
chance of thunderstorms. NW winds gusts 15-20 kt during the day.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Late tonight: A chance of rain showers north and west of NYC
terminals with brief MVFR possible. A slight chance of showers
for other terminals. A slight chance of thunderstorms, mainly in
the evening north and west of NYC terminals. SW wind gusts near
20 kt, becoming more westerly late. LLWS east of NYC terminals
with SW winds at 2kft near 45-50 kt.
Wednesday: VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt during the day.
Thursday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible at night with a chance
of showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.
Friday: MVFR or lower possible. A chance of showers. A chance of
thunderstorms during the day. A slight chance of thunderstorms at
night. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into evening.
Saturday: MVFR or lower possible. A chance of showers. A slight
chance of thunderstorms. NW winds gusts 15-20 kt during the day.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
South to SW winds increase today with SCA conditions developing on
all waters this afternoon. A cold front then passes through late
tonight into Wednesday morning with gusts still above 25 kt and
elevated seas on the ocean. SCA has been extended to parts of
Wednesday on the ocean. Only other adjustment to the SCA was to
extend it through the entire night for most of the non-ocean waters.
A period of sub-advisory conditions then follows for all waters for
much of Weds afternoon through Thursday night as a high pressure
ridge shifts through the region.
Strengthening southerly flow associated with an approaching frontal
system could introduce a period of SCA conditions on the ocean
beginning Friday, with wind gusts up to 25 kt and seas 5 to 6 ft.
Winds lighten Friday night, but elevated seas may linger into the
weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions with the combination of low relative humidity values
between mostly 25 and 35 percent and frequent wind gusts of 25 to 30
mph will create an elevated risk for fire spread this afternoon into
early evening. Special Weather statements are out for portions of
the area.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomically high tides will couple with a modest S/SW flow to
allow water levels to approach or just touch minor flood
thresholds in the most vulnerable locales of coastal Nassau,
Queens, and Fairfield during this evening`s high tide cycle.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for
ANZ331-332-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for
ANZ335-338.
Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for
ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 11 AM EDT Wednesday
for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DR
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JC/DR
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...