431
FXUS61 KOKX 292140
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
540 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through late tonight into early Wednesday
morning. High pressure builds Wednesday and settles over the area
Wednesday night into Thursday. A warm front approaches Thursday
night and lifts through the region on Friday, with an attendant
cold front following during Saturday. Thereafter, high pressure
attempts to build in from the west into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast remains on track this evening, with just some minor
adjustments to temperatures to reflect latest observations.
Otherwise, eyes will be turning off to the west later this
evening and into a portion of the overnight as a cold frontal
boundary approaches from the west. Expect high clouds of the
cirrus variety from time to time throughout this evening across
the eastern half of the area. Further west towards the second
half of the evening and just before midnight a line of
convection forecast by the convective allowing models (CAMs) is
progged to weaken as it get towards and east of Sullivan County
and approaching Orange County / Western portions of the Lower
Hudson Valley. Have capped PoPs below 50 percent for the NW end
of Orange County, with PoPs dropping off sharply heading east
through the remainder of the Lower Hudson Valley and NE NJ
toward the NYC metro. SPC has maintained a marginal risk just
outside western portions of Orange County. Cannot totally rule
out that a thunderstorm sneaks into the Lower Hudson Valley, but
the environment is a lot less favorable for meaningful
convection the further east one goes. Thus have slight chance
thunder wording until 05-06z for interior NW sections which
includes interior NE NJ. At this time it is doubtful that any
convection would be able to achieve severe limits. Further east
slight chance PoPs have been maintained. The frontal boundary
pivot through around 8 to 12z from west to east. A subtle wind
shift to the west should occur just ahead of the boundary, with
a more noticeable wind shift to the NW for Wednesday morning. A
mild night overall is expected due to the late arrival of the
front and some cloud cover. Lows will average above normal with
mainly 50s, and near 60 across the metro.
On Wednesday noticeably drier air rushes in immediately behind the
cold front on a NW wind. Expect plenty of sunshine and NW winds in
the 10 to 15, 10 to 20 mph range throughout the morning with gusts
around 25 mph, perhaps briefly to 30 mph until mid day or
shortly thereafter. For more on the dry conditions see the Fire
Wx. section. Then later in the afternoon the winds diminish as
high pressure continues to draw closer and the pressure gradient
begins to weaken. On a NW wind this time of year it usually
means above normal temperatures as the winds will downslope
across the interior. Most spots should get to around 70, with
some middle 70s across the more metropolitan areas by the
afternoon. Thus, temperatures should get a good 5 to 8 degrees
above normal in most places.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
With a dry cP air mass settling directly over the area Wednesday
night temperatures should cool quite a bit, more so across the non-
urban locations. With mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions
temperatures should cool primarily into the 40s, with lower 50s
across the metro which is right around normal for this time of year.
High pressure begins to get further east during the day Thursday.
Light and variable winds during the morning become more onshore out
of the SE towards late morning and afternoon. Temperatures should
reach their max by the start of the afternoon, especially further
east. Then temperatures should trail off across coastal sections
more so during the afternoon as the onshore flow gets established.
Temperatures should max out around 70 well inland, but lower half of
the 60s and upper 50s further east.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long term period starts off Thursday night with low pressure
moving across the Great Lakes region along with an upper level
trough approaching the region. Its associated cold front will
approach from the south and west, reaching portions of the
forecast area Friday morning. Expect some chance POPs Thursday
night into early Friday morning as moisture increase along with
some lift associated with the front. Generally looking at just
some light rain showers, however can not rule out an isolated
rumble of thunder.
There should be a brief break in the precip Friday morning, however
chances increase once again Friday afternoon into Saturday as the
upper trough and cold front approach and move over the region. This
should bring a better chance of showers, along with a chance of
thunder for much of the region. Some of the forecast guidance is
also showing the potential for a frontal wave of low pressure
developing along the boundary as it moves east, producing additional
rainfall into the late weekend. QPF outside any thunder should
largely remain under an inch, though the slower progression of the
entire system could enhance totals just a bit further.
There continues to be considerable uncertainty in the forecast from
late weekend into early next week with whether or not the associated
upper low is able able to push east or get cut off from the flow and
meander nearby for several days. Will continue to keep at least
chance POPs in the forecast for now through much of the extended,
however it will be possible that part of next week will be dry.
Friday will be the warmest day in the long term with highs in the
upper 70s and middle 80s away from the maritime influence. Closer to
the coast, highs will only be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. With
unsettled conditions possible, expect high temperatures to be in the
60s and lower 70s for the remainder of the long term.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front approaching from the west late this afternoon will
pass through late tonight into early Wednesday morning. High
pressure will then returns for much of Wednesday.
VFR for the most part, though there is a chance that a
weakening line of showers/tstms ahead of the front may make it
as far east as KSWF with MVFR cond and brief gusty winds.
SW-S flow should increase to over 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt.
Winds will be stronger at KJFK/KISP, sustained 20-25 kt with
gusts just over 30 kt from about 20Z-21Z til 24Z. Winds veer SW
ahead of the approaching front, then shift W-NW and become gusty
by daybreak Wed if not sooner with gusts over 20 kt. Think
these gusts will carry into the afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Brief G35kt at KJFK and G30kt at KLGA both possible from about
21Z-24Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday afternoon: VFR. NW winds G20kt.
Wednesday night and Thursday: VFR.
Thursday night: Chance of showers after midnight with MVFR cond
possible.
Friday: Chance showers/tstms with MVFR or lower cond from mid
afternoon into the night. S winds G20kt at the NYC metros and
along the coast.
Saturday: Showers likely and possibly a tstm with MVFR or lower
cond expected.
Sunday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond likely.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
South to SW winds increase into the afternoon with SCA conditions
developing on all waters this afternoon. A cold front then passes
through late tonight into Wednesday morning with gusts still
above 25 kt and elevated seas on the ocean. SCA has been
extended to parts of Wednesday on the ocean. Only other
adjustment to the SCA was to extend it through the entire night
for most of the non-ocean waters. A period of sub-advisory
conditions then follows for all waters for much of Weds
afternoon through Thursday night as a high pressure ridge shifts
through the region.
Strengthening southerly flow associated with an approaching frontal
system could introduce a period of SCA conditions on the ocean
beginning Friday, with wind gusts up to 25 kt and seas 5 to 6 ft.
Winds lighten Friday night, but elevated seas may linger into the
weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions with the combination of low relative humidity values
between mostly 25 and 35 percent and frequent wind gusts of 25 to 30
mph will create an elevated risk for fire spread into early
evening. Special Weather Statements are in effect for most of
the area (excludes NYC and LI).
A wetting rain is unlikely for the vast majority of the area
tonight, despite the fact that a cold front swings through
early in the morning. Behind the front NW winds pick up and will
likely gust to around 25 mph at times throughout the morning.
The winds are then likely to decrease during the afternoon.
Minimum RH levels are expected to be 20 to 30 percent resulting
in another elevated risk of fire spread. Special Weather
Statements have been collaborated with state agencies and will
be required for all off our NY, NJ, and CT zones on Wednesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomically high tides coupled with a S/SW flow allows water
levels to approach minor coastal flood thresholds in the most
vulnerable locales of coastal Nassau, Queens, and Fairfield, CT
during this evening`s high tide cycle. No headlines have been
issued as the expectation is for water levels to fall just
short of coastal flood benchmarks.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ331-332-
340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ335-338.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JE
NEAR TERM...BC/JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BC/JE
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...