386
FXUS61 KOKX 301831
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
231 PM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control through Thursday. A warm front
approaches Thursday night and lifts through the region on
Friday. A cold front then passes through the region Saturday
into Saturday night, with a wave of low pressure developing
along it as does so. High pressure then attempts to build in
from the north and west into early next week, while an upper low
meanders nearby.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will build in from the NW for the rest of the day
and through tonight. NW winds will gradually weaken through
the afternoon and evening. A dry NW flow will promote above-
normal temperatures with some compressional heating via
downsloping, and for south- facing coasts, winds should be
strong enough to prevent sea breezes pushing in during the day.
Leaned more toward the NBM 50th percentile, which is warmer than
the deterministic NBM given the temperatures at the top of the
mixed layer. See the fire weather section below for potential
impacts of the dry and breezy conditions.
The surface ridge axis moves into the forecast area tonight with
winds continuing to weaken. Strong radiational cooling conditions
should therefore develop in the usual spots as winds become calm and
cirrus probably holds off through the night. NBM as usual looks too
warm for these areas, so instead blended MET and MAV MOS. This
results in lows in the mid-upper 30s well NW of city and in parts of
the LI Pine Barrens Region, however no frost concerns at this time.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Surface ridge axis will be over or just to our east through the day
on Thursday with still some slight ridging aloft. This will keep us
dry through the daytime hours. High temperatures near normal.
Surface low pressure shifts NE through the Great Lakes Region during
Thursday night. A leading warm front is progged to reach our
doorstep by daybreak Friday. Increased moisture with 850mb theta-e
advection and isentropic lift bring chances (40-50%) of light
rain/drizzle/showers during the night.
The warm front lifts north through the area on Friday with mainly
afternoon and nighttime showers and thunderstorms possible as a cold
front approaches. While strong thunderstorms will be possible for
roughly the western half of the forecast area based on progged CAPE
and shear profiles in the afternoon and evening, severe storms are
not anticipated at this time. No flooding impacts are expected
either. NBM looked good for high temps, but adjusted downward in
some spots with a southerly flow expected off the waters.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An unsettled start (at least) to the long term as a cold front works
east through the region Saturday. Guidance still indicates frontal
wave development along the nearby boundary, likely enhancing
rainfall and leading to periods of showers much of the day. Can`t
rule out a few thunderstorms as well, though instability appears
relatively low and severe weather is not expected.
Thereafter, wildly diverging solutions amongst global guidance
continues to lead to considerable uncertainty and low confidence
into next week. One camp, which includes the GFS/GEFS, has a less
amplified, more progressive trough that advances far enough east
before closing off into an upper low near the Canadian Maritimes.
This allows high pressure to build in locally and dries the region
out. Meanwhile, EPS and GEPS members largely have a sharper, slower
trough that closes off to our west, meandering within the Eastern
CONUS for several days and leading to a much more dreary and wet
outlook. The 00Z ECM, for example, advertises a washout, producing 4
to 5 inches of rainfall across portions of the local Tri State thru
Monday, with more beyond that as the system lingers thru mid next
week. The same run of the GFS yields barely a half inch, all with
the frontal wave on Saturday. With this large spread, used the
national blend for PoPs, yielding chance (25-40%) Sunday and beyond.
The associated energy is just moving onshore western Canada, and
additional sampling over the next day or so should help resolve the
solution.
Given the potential for these persistent unsettled conditions,
temperatures will be highly dependent on the synoptic outcome and
have stayed close to consensus with this update.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure moves across the region through tonight and then
offshore on Thursday. A warm front approaches late in the TAF
period.
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Winds are NW and gusting. The winds become more northerly
tonight with gusts diminishing. The winds become more easterly
Thursday.
Wind speeds near 10-15 kt this afternoon into early this evening.
Gusts near 25 kt initially will be closer to 20 kt heading into
early this evening. Then wind speeds near 5-10 kt tonight
through Thursday with no more gusts expected. Winds are generally
SE late Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Wind gust end time could be 1-2 hours off from TAF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday Afternoon - Thursday Night: VFR initially. MVFR or
lower possible at night. A chance of showers.
Friday: MVFR or lower possible. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Southerly wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into evening.
Saturday: MVFR or lower possible. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into evening. Wind
direction becomes more westerly into the evening.
Sunday: MVFR or lower possible. A chance of showers.
Monday: MVFR or lower possible. A chance of showers. NE wind gusts
15-20 kt day into evening.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winds and seas have fallen below small craft levels.
Sub-advisory conditions are expected through Friday morning.
With southerly winds increasing Friday afternoon, expecting a
return to SCA conditions at least on the ocean and possibly on
some of the other waters as well.
Ocean seas may linger near 5 ft thru late Saturday before lowering.
Sub SCA conditions then expected on all waters early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NW winds pick up and will likely gust to around 25 mph at times
through early afternoon. Winds then likely to diminish thereafter.
Minimum RH levels are expected to be 20 to 30 percent, resulting in
an elevated risk of fire spread. Special Weather Statements have
been collaborated with state agencies and remain posted for all of
our NY, NJ, and CT zones today.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DR
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BC
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/DR