384
FXUS61 KOKX 301946
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
346 PM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will be in control through Thursday. A warm front approaches Thursday night and lifts through the region Friday morning. A cold front approaches late Saturday into Saturday night, with a wave of low pressure developing along it as does so. This frontal system may linger near the area through early next week, as a cutoff upper low develops to the southwest.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Surface high pressure and upper level ridging build over the area tonight and slides off to the east during the day Thursday. Expect dry conditions through Thursday. Low temperatures tonight will fall into the upper 30s and 40s. The exception will be in the NYC metro area where lows fall into the 50s. Highs on Thursday, will be in the 60s and lower 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As the high moves further east Thursday night, low pressure will move into the Great Lakes region. An associated warm front is forecast to move into the region bringing increased cloud cover along with a chance for showers Thursday night into early Friday morning. It appears that the better chances for any rainfall will remain west of NYC, but there will still be a chance across the entire region. It will be a bit more mild with lows in the upper 40s and 50s.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Good agreement in east coast upper ridging sliding east on Friday, with a couple of northern stream shortwaves digging a trough from the Canadian plains into the mid Mississippi River Valley Friday into Saturday. Model spread increases heading through the weekend into next week on the timing and location of the base of this deep trough evolving into a cutoff closed low. Better agreement on the northern portion of the trough pivoting through the NE US Sat Night into Monday. ECMWF/GEPS ensembles and majority of AI models (notably trained on the ECMWF ERA5 dataset) develop/hang the cutoff low to the SW of the region across the Tennessee R/Ohio R valley this weekend thru early next week as an omega blocking pattern develops across the Eastern US into Western Atlantic. The result being a frontal system approaching Friday, with the cold front stalling to the west of the region and strong Canadian maritime high to the NE, resulting in a persistent Atlantic/sub-tropical moisture flow with rounds of shower/embedded tsra activity as waves of low pressure ride up the stalled cold front Sat thru midweek. NBM ensemble 90th percentile signaling 72hr rainfall potential of 3", similar to ECMWF ensemble 50th percentile stormtotal Fri thru Wed. Of course, low predictability on QPF amounts at this point, but a plausible basin averaged outcome if this stalled scenario pans out. Meanwhile, GFS/GEFS ensemble is a more progressive scenario, with a farther SE development of the cutoff upper low off the SE US coast, which allows for the approaching frontal system (warm frontal passage on Friday) and then gradual cold frontal approach/passage Sat/Sat eve with accompanying shra/tsra activity. In its wake surface high pressure builds in as ridging surface/aloft build overhead in the split flow for Sun thru midweek. A much more progressive and drier scenario. So overall, a low confidence forecast for back half of the weekend into early next week at this point based on the model divergence discussed above. Better model agreement and higher confidence in Fri/Sat forecast with warm frontal passage Fri AM bringing a few showers, advecting in a warm/moist airmass on deep SW flow. S/SW flow and deep mixing will likely allow temps west of the Hudson to rise well into the 80s, while southern/eastern coastal areas remain in the 60s to around 70. Have leaned towards a blend of NBM deterministic and NBM 50th for temps west of the Hudson based on above synoptic setup, and close to NBM deterministic for coast with maritime influence. NBM deterministic is running in the 25th quartile of the ensemble distribution. Pre-frontal trough approaches western portions of the area Fri aft/eve. Potential for sct shra/isolated tsra activity for NYC and points N&W in a weakly forced, but marginally unstable/modest shear environment. A more stable airmass along the coast will likely have any convection dissipating as it overspreads the coast and encounters this environment. Conversely, could be dealing with stratus/fog development for southern and eastern coastal areas late Friday into Sat with moist onshore flow over cold waters (lower 50 SSTs). CSU MLP indicating a marginal severe threat, which seem conditionally possible with a more distinct shortwave trigger and resultant stronger shear/instability profile. Better chance for organization of scattered shra/tsra activity ahead of/along cold front late Sat/Sat Eve for NYC and points NW with approach of northern shortwave in a marginally unstable and strong deep layer shear environment. This convective scenario will ultimately will be predicated on evolution of northern trough and cutoff. Although airmass is similar on Friday to Saturday, potential for more in the way of convective debris on Saturday limiting full insolation. Have leaned towards a blend of NBM deterministic and NBM 50th for temps west of the Hudson based on above synoptic setup (upper 70s), and close to NBM deterministic for coast with maritime influence (60s to around 70). NBM deterministic once again is running in the 25th quartile of the ensemble distribution.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure moves across the region tonight and then offshore on Thursday. A warm front approaches late in the TAF period. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds are NW and gusting. The winds become more northerly tonight with gusts diminishing. The winds become more easterly Thursday. Wind speeds near 10-15 kt this afternoon into early this evening. Gusts near 25 kt initially will be closer to 20 kt heading into early this evening. Then wind speeds near 5-10 kt tonight through Thursday with no more gusts expected. Winds are generally SE late Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Wind gust end time could be 1-2 hours off from TAF. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Thursday Afternoon - Thursday Night: VFR initially. MVFR or lower possible at night. A chance of showers. Friday: MVFR or lower possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Southerly wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into evening. Saturday: MVFR or lower possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into evening. Wind direction becomes more westerly into the evening. Sunday: MVFR or lower possible. A chance of showers. Monday: MVFR or lower possible. A chance of showers. NE wind gusts 15-20 kt day into evening. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE...
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Conditions will remain below small craft levels through Thursday night as high pressure remains near the region. Marginal S/SW SCA gusts possible on the ocean Fri aft/eve with approach of pre-frontal trough and then once again Sat aft/eve with approach of cold front. More confidence in SCA ocean seas developing Sat aft/eve and lingering into Sunday based on persistent S/SW flow. Low predictability on SCA conds for Sun thru early next week based on progression of a frontal system through the region.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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An elevated risk of fire spread remains possible this evening with NW winds gusting into the teens and lower 20 mph range along with min RH levels around 20 to 30 percent. Special Weather Statements have been collaborated with state agencies and remain posted for all of our NY, NJ, and CT zones today.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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Low predictability on rainfall amounts and hydrologic concerns Sun thru early next week, dependent on progressiveness of a frontal system thru the area.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/NV NEAR TERM...BC SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...JM MARINE...BC/NV FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...BC/NV