725
FXUS61 KOKX 020944
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
544 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front moves across the region this morning. A cold front
approaches tonight. This cold front eventually moves within the
region this weekend but will stall. A large cut-off low
pressure system will allow for continued unsettled conditions
to the area through at least mid-week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Convection has been ongoing during the overnight, but is
restricted now to just extreme eastern sections of the region
before daybreak.

With the approach and eventual passage of the warm front, there
is expected to be advection of warmer and more moist air.
Thinking this will lead to lowering clouds with some fog
development expected as well. Unsure of how much the fog will
extend in the area as well as how dense it could get but do
think localized dense fog will be possible. The fog is forecast
to be patchy throughout the morning along the coastal zones.

Otherwise, the region will be within the warm sector of an
approaching low. The associated cold front will begin to
approach from the west.

There could be some daytime showers and thunderstorms with the
instability increasing especially for more interior locations as
well as NYC Metro which will be where the warmest temperatures
are expected. High temperatures here are forecast to reach the
low to mid 80s. Elsewhere within the area, high temperatures
will be mainly near 70 to 80 except more in the 60s along the
immediate shorelines.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Mid level cutoff low approaches the region tonight through the
weekend. At the surface, a cold front moves in and stalls out.
The position of the front looks to be generally within the
northern half of the region for the latter half of this upcoming
weekend.

Atmospheric flow become more southerly through the weekend. This
will help establish a more moist low level environment.

Numerical weather prediction models show instability will be
higher at the surface across the interior during the day, but
also indicate elevated instability at night across a large
portion of the region. Keeping thunderstorms in the forecast but
probabilities range from slight chance to chance.

850mb temperatures are warmer for both today and Saturday and
lower for Sunday. Warmest days of the forecast period are
forecast today and Saturday. Much of the area is in 70s to 80s
for high temperatures today and Saturday. Sunday`s high
temperature range from the upper 60s to mid 70.

As the mid level cutoff low approaches, ahead of it, shortwaves
move across with associated positive vorticity advection. Some
enhancement shower activity and the possibility of stronger
thunderstorms due to more shear.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The extended period will be dominated by a large cut-off low
pressure system which will bring periods of rain, possibly with
embedded thunderstorms, through at least the middle of next
week.

Additionally, a surface high pressure over the Western Atlantic
combined with the surface low pressure to our west will allow for a
continuous S/SE flow through the timeframe. This will advect a
continuous stream of moisture from the sub-tropical Atlantic,
resulting in overcast skies and periods of rain through the period.
When it is not raining, there may be ample enough low level moisture
to produce drizzle and/or fog, especially at night.

With the upper trough just to the west, there may be enough
instability each afternoon and evening for there to be isolated to
embedded thunderstorms, especially in any more organized convection
that forms, mainly for the western portions of the area.

Due to the inherent uncertain nature of a spinning but nearly
stationary cut off low pressure system, it remains especially
difficult to pinpoint any periods of more persistent or heavier
rainfall or thunderstorms. At this time, global models seem to
suggest that the Sunday night - Tuesday night timeframe may have the
best combination of moisture and lift to allow for a more widespread
steadier to locally heavy rainfall, but this may change in future
runs. WPC has the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall
during this timeframe.

Models also suggest that a widespread 2-3 inches of rainfall is
possible for much of the area, especially for western areas which
may be more favorable for convection at any given time. Locally
upwards of 4 inches isn`t ruled out, though this accumulated
rainfall is over the entire extended period, generally from Saturday
night through Wednesday.

The low pressure is expected to move out of the area sometime
Wednesday night through Friday morning. Despite ample cloud cover
and rainfall, temperatures through the timeframe should be fairly
seasonable to slightly below average, with highs each day generally
in the 60s, possibly a bit warmer for the NYC metro. Lows each night
will remain in the 50s, courtesy of the ample amounts of moisture.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front just south of Long Island will lift through this
morning. A cold front to the west will then gradually draw
closer tonight.

Earlier showers/tstms have moved east. IFR cigs should impact
most if not all terminals, with coastal terminals going LIFR for
a time this morning mostly before 12Z-13Z. Improvement to VFR
expected by 14Z-15Z except at KGON which may take until early to
mid afternoon.

Winds shift S-SW 5-10 kt this morning after fropa. Then coastal
sea breezes are likely this afternoon, with a gusty SW flow
inland as cigs improve.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Unscheduled AMD possible for flight category deviating
from fcst.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Late tonight: VFR.

Saturday: Showers/tstms likely in the afternoon and at night.
MVFR or lower cond expected. S winds G20-25kt in the afternoon
at KJFK/KISP and G15-20kt elsewhere.

Sunday: Showers/tstms with MVFR or lower cond expected.

Monday: Showers/tstms likely with MVFR or lower cond expected.
E-NE winds G20-25kt.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower cond possible with chance of
showers/tstms. S winds G15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SCAs remain the same as previously forecast. This may be more of
a marginal SCA where gusts and seas will be near but at times
may settle just below SCA thresholds on the ocean.

More SCA conditions are forecast on Saturday on the ocean.
However, want to see how well conditions verify with forecast
today before changing or potentially extending the marine
headlines.

Non-ocean zones remain below SCA through tonight but may get
pretty close to SCA thresholds for winds on Saturday.

SCA conditions are possible through Saturday night before waves
subside and gusts largely drop below SCA thresholds for Sunday.
Increasingly S/SE flow on Monday may allow for near SCA gusts for
all the waters and wave heights on the ocean nearing 5 feet once
again.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
Rain this weekend will be higher north and west of NYC and lower
across the eastern sections.

Long duration rainfall this weekend through midweek will likely
result in a widespread 2-3 inches of rainfall, possibly locally
higher in any thunderstorms. WPC has the area in a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall Sunday through Tuesday. While flash flooding
isn`t expected, minor urban or poor drainage flooding is possible at
any point Saturday night through Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT
     tonight for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/MW
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JM/MW
HYDROLOGY...JM/MW