944
FXUS61 KOKX 021511
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1111 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front moves north of the area this afternoon. A cold
front approaches tonight. This cold front eventually moves
within the region this weekend but will stall. A large cut-off
low pressure system will allow for continued unsettled
conditions to the area through at least mid week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front gets north of the region this afternoon after
lingering a little longer than expected across northern and
northeastern most portions of the area. Otherwise, the region
gets completely into the warm sector of an approaching low. The
associated cold front will begin to slowly approach from the
west.
There is a little bit of CAPE in the mid levels, however there
is some capping with what appears to be some subtle warm
advection in the mid levels. This should limit convective
development along the thermal gradient / pre-frontal thermal
trough later this afternoon. Have lowered PoPs a little by about
5 percent on average from the previous forecast. Coverage should
be limited across the region, especially further east. Thus,
have gone more with low coverage / isolated wording. Perhaps
interior locations have a slightly higher chance of having a
storm initiate late this afternoon, but overall convective
coverage looks to be low to non-existent. Latest CAMs from 13
and 14z spin up reinforce this thinking.
Interior locations as well as the NYC / NE NJ metro will be
where the warmest temperatures are expected. High temperatures
here are forecast to reach the lower to middle 80s. Elsewhere
within the area, high temperatures will be mainly near 70 to 80
except more in the 60s along the immediate shoreline
communities.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level cutoff low approaches the region tonight through the
weekend. At the surface, a cold front moves in and eventually
stalls out. The position of the front looks to be generally
within the northern half of the region for the latter half of
this upcoming weekend.
Rain showers and a chance of thunderstorms is the main weather
story this weekend.
Atmospheric flow becomes more southerly through the weekend.
This will help establish a more moist low level environment.
Numerical weather prediction models show instability will be
higher at the surface across the interior during the day, but
also indicate elevated instability at night across a large
portion of the region. Keeping thunderstorms in the forecast but
probabilities range from slight chance to chance.
850mb temperatures are warmer for Saturday and lower for
Sunday. Warmest days of the short term forecast period are
forecast Saturday. Much of the area is in 70s to 80s for high
temperatures Saturday. Sunday`s high temperatures range from
the upper 60s to mid 70s.
As the mid level cutoff low approaches, ahead of it, shortwaves
move across with associated positive vorticity advection. Some
enhancement shower activity and the possibility of stronger to
perhaps even severe thunderstorms due to more shear. SPC has
western parts of the region in a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms for Saturday into Saturday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The extended period will be dominated by a large cut-off low
pressure system which will bring periods of rain, possibly with
embedded thunderstorms, through at least the middle of next
week.
Additionally, a surface high pressure over the Western Atlantic
combined with the surface low pressure to our west will allow for a
continuous S/SE flow through the timeframe. This will advect a
continuous stream of moisture from the sub-tropical Atlantic,
resulting in overcast skies and periods of rain through the period.
When it is not raining, there may be ample enough low level moisture
to produce drizzle and/or fog, especially at night.
With the upper trough just to the west, there may be enough
instability each afternoon and evening for there to be isolated to
embedded thunderstorms, especially in any more organized convection
that forms, mainly for the western portions of the area.
Due to the inherent uncertain nature of a spinning but nearly
stationary cut off low pressure system, it remains especially
difficult to pinpoint any periods of more persistent or heavier
rainfall or thunderstorms. At this time, global models seem to
suggest that the Sunday night - Tuesday night timeframe may have the
best combination of moisture and lift to allow for a more widespread
steadier to locally heavy rainfall, but this may change in future
runs. WPC has the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall
during this timeframe.
Models also suggest that a widespread 2-3 inches of rainfall is
possible for much of the area, especially for western areas which
may be more favorable for convection at any given time. Locally
upwards of 4 inches isn`t ruled out, though this accumulated
rainfall is over the entire extended period, generally from Saturday
night through Wednesday.
The low pressure is expected to move out of the area sometime
Wednesday night through Friday morning. Despite ample cloud cover
and rainfall, temperatures through the timeframe should be fairly
seasonable to slightly below average, with highs each day generally
in the 60s, possibly a bit warmer for the NYC metro. Lows each night
will remain in the 50s, courtesy of the ample amounts of moisture.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front is lifting through the area this morning. A cold
front to the west will then gradually draw closer tonight.
The problem continues to be a stubborn area of low clouds and
fog along the CT coast, primarily impacting KBDR with LIFR
conditions. Expect this to end shortly as it warms and mixes
out. Medium to high confidence of there VFR by 16Z.
Winds shift S-SW 5-10 kt this morning, then coastal sea breezes
are likely this afternoon, with a SW flow gusting either side
of 20 kt inland.
Winds back S and lighten up tonight. Coastal terminals could
see return of IFR/LIFR cond late.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
KLGA may see NE flow continue off the East River through about
16Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday: Showers/tstms likely in the afternoon and at night.
Highest chances across the interior. MVFR or lower cond
expected. S winds G20-25kt in the afternoon at KJFK/KISP and
G15-20kt elsewhere.
Sunday: Showers/tstms with MVFR or lower cond expected.
Monday: Showers/tstms likely with MVFR or lower cond expected.
E-NE winds G20-25kt.
Tuesday: MVFR or lower cond possible with chance of
showers/tstms. S winds G15-20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCAs remain the same as previously forecast. This may be more of
a marginal SCA where gusts and seas will be near but at times
may settle just below SCA thresholds on the ocean. Wavewatch
does have 5 ft seas developing for parts of the ocean tonight.
BUFKIT soundings show around 30-35 kt just above inversion and
think this could be partially mixed down with any rain showers.
Not enough evidence to change the SCA.
More SCA conditions are forecast on Saturday on the ocean.
However, want to see how well conditions verify with forecast
today before changing or potentially extending the marine
headlines.
Non-ocean zones remain below SCA through tonight but may get
pretty close to SCA thresholds for winds on Saturday.
SCA conditions are possible through Saturday night before waves
subside and gusts largely drop below SCA thresholds for Sunday.
Increasingly S/SE flow on Monday may allow for near SCA gusts for
all the waters and wave heights on the ocean nearing 5 feet once
again.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rain this weekend will be higher north and west of NYC and lower
across the eastern sections.
Long duration rainfall this weekend through midweek will likely
result in a widespread 2-3 inches of rainfall, possibly locally
higher in any thunderstorms. WPC has the area in a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall Sunday through Tuesday. While flash flooding
isn`t expected, minor urban or poor drainage flooding is possible at
any point Saturday through Wednesday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT
Saturday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT
tonight for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MW
NEAR TERM...JM/JE
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...BG/DW
MARINE...JM/MW
HYDROLOGY...JM/MW