682
FXUS61 KOKX 031458
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1058 AM EDT Sat May 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will approach this afternoon and
evening, then lift back north tonight as a warm front. A large
sprawling low pressure system over the Ohio Valley and high
pressure out over the Atlantic will then combine to bring
unsettled conditions beginning this weekend. The low will move
across Tuesday night into early Wednesday, then pass to the
northeast later next week, with associated frontal boundary
remaining not too far away.

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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Minor adjustments with this morning update to account for some scattered thunderstorm development over the ocean waters. Otherwise, forecast remains on track. Today is starting off partly to mostly sunny with a canopy of thin high clouds and some patches of mid level clouds mainly inland. Sunshine should allow temps to quickly climb to the lower 80s across a good deal of the interior and into the 70s across Long Island and southern CT. As the front to the west begins to approach showers/tstms will become numerous north/west of NYC. A corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE 1500 J/kg will be in place across the Hudson Valley and NW NJ, with low level SW flow increasing to 25 kt and mid level flow up to 45 kt, providing ample ingredients for strong to severe thunderstorms inland NW of NYC this afternoon mainly after 18Z. SPC forecasts a slight risk for areas along/NW of I-287, with damaging winds and some large hail the primary concerns. A marginal tornado risk also exists given the stronger low level SW flow, but think this would be isolated/conditional at best, depending on channeled S low level flow up the river valleys to help increase low level helicity. A marginal flash flood threat also exists in this corridor, as training of cells may also occur as the low to mid level flow aligns with the frontal boundary. Localized rainfall amounts of 1-2+ inches look possible per 00Z HREF PMM QPF. Even though chances for tstms increase late today into this evening down into the NYC metro area, western Long Island and southern CT as the front sags SE, the threat for svr wx is more marginal there as fcst soundings do not look as unstable, and more of a marine influence will exist due to S flow along the coast. In fact, southerly sea breezes should gust to 25-30 mph during mid to late afternoon along the south shore of Long Island, and to 20-25 mph across southern CT. Convection should wane during the late evening and overnight, and the frontal boundary should retreat back to the north as a warm front overnight. Some patchy fog may be possible where earlier heavier rainfall occurred. Low temps will fall to the lower 60s in NYC and NE NJ, and into the 50s elsewhere.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... On Sunday look for clouds to linger with a S-SE onshore flow ahead of the low to the west. Rain chances increase especially during the afternoon/evening as an Atlantic moisture feed sets up between the low to the west and offshore high pressure, with the best chances for heavier rain late Sunday night into Monday. With onshore flow and thicker cloud cover temps will not be as warm, with highs both days in the 60s to lower 70s, and lows Sunday night in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The region remains in a rainy weather pattern overall during the long term. Rain is not expected the entire timeframe but at least chances for rain appear for each time period Monday night through Friday. Instability and forcing make for chances of thunderstorms as well within the Monday night through midweek timeframe. Relatively highest chances of thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday into early Tuesday evening. Cutoff upper level low continues to approach the region Monday night through Tuesday night. This upper level low eventually exits east of the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. However, another upper level trough moves into the region behind the low going into late week. At the surface, a frontal boundary remains within the region Monday night into Tuesday. Low pressure center associated with this frontal boundary will be approaching the area as well. Would expect a greater amount of vertical forcing as a result. The low pressure center itself moves across Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The low then moves northeast of the region towards late week. Vertical forcing will decrease Tuesday night into Wednesday. However, synoptic lift becomes favorable once again with another front moving into the region. Temperatures average above normal during the long term period. Relatively warmest day is on Wednesday and Thursday when forecast high temperatures reach the upper 60s to lower 70s for much of the region. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Stalled frontal boundary will reside in close proximity to the Lower Hudson Valley with a thermal trough closer to the coast. Each of these features will be areas to focus convection on this afternoon into this evening. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions are expected with the chance of sub-VFR conditions with any showers and/or thunderstorms. A greater overall chance of MVFR is forecast early Sunday. Winds are forecast to generally remain southerly through the TAF period, increasing to 10-15kt with gusts 20-25 kts this afternoon into early this evening. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments are likely to refine the timing of showers and thunderstorms. Start and end time of gusts could be a few hours off from TAF. IFR possible early Sunday. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Sunday: Mainly MVFR early, possible IFR. Otherwise, mainly VFR with chance of MVFR or lower in showers. Best chance will be in the afternoon and nighttime hours. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Monday: Showers likely with MVFR or lower expected. A slight chance of tstms. E winds G15-20kt. Tuesday: Showers with MVFR or lower expected. A chance of thunderstorms. SE winds G15-20kt day into early eve possible. Wednesday: Chance of MVFR or lower with a chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE...
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SCA conditions expected for the ocean from mid afternoon into tonight, with seas building to 5-6 ft on a long fetch S flow increasing to 20 kt. A period of SCA cond also expected on the south shore bays of Long Island due to an enhanced sea breeze with gusts up to 25 kt. A brief window of SCA cond is also possible for the ocean W of Fire Island Inlet late Mon afternoon into Mon evening, with E flow gusting up to 25 kt and seas building to 5 ft.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... A marginal flash flood risk exists for this afternoon/evening for inland areas NW of NYC, as tstms there will be capable of producing 1-2+ inches of rain in a short period of time. Most of the impacts should be at nuisance level, but cannot rule out an isolated flash flood event. Rain could also be heavy at times from late Sunday night through early Wednesday. With parallel flow from lower to upper levels, training of showers and thunderstorms could occur. Minor flooding will be possible for excessive runoff in low lying, urban, and poor drainage areas. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ345. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$