750
FXUS61 KOKX 041210
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
810 AM EDT Sun May 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Frontal boundary shifts farther north into early today. It is
expected to stay to the north of Long Island through tonight. The
frontal boundary eventually moves farther south within the region
Monday into Tuesday. The system will then pass through on
Wednesday, with a cold front passing through on Thursday. The
area will then remain between high pressure to the west and low
pressure developing east of New England on Friday. The low
should slowly pull away from New England on Saturday.

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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Mainly dry through this morning. Localized low clouds and localized fog for some locations. Higher chance of showers this afternoon. Only weak instability this afternoon so only have a slight chance thunderstorms where the models show this instability, which is within the western half of the region. SE winds stabilize surface layer with cooler temperatures overall. However, noting temperatures a little above MOS initially so went with NBM for the high temperature forecast which seems plausible given sufficient diurnal warming this morning into early afternoon before more showers develop. Upper 60s to lower 70s for the high temperature forecast for most locations but relatively cooler along the southern half of Long Island and NYC, which are more in the low to mid 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Cutoff upper level low continues to approach from the west. Continued southerly lower to upper level flow will be parallel. Omega increases. With synoptic lift increasing and some time periods where there will be more elevated instability, especially Monday night through Tuesday, there will be more coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Tonight showers continue but not expecting too much heavy rainfall. Instability lowering so no thunderstorms tonight. There will be more low clouds and fog. Uncertain how dense or extensive the fog gets. Kept fog with patchy coverage. Less rain than forecast will probably lead to more extent of fog and increase the possibility for some dense fog for some locations. Monday is when the rain showers become more widespread and this is expected to continue Monday night through Tuesday. Combination of highest synoptic forcing and relatively more instability will lead to a greater chance for heavy rain as well especially for any thunderstorms that develop. Parallel flow from lower to upper levels will lead to training of convection allowing for multiple rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms. Synoptic forcing decreases Tuesday night with highest positive vorticity advection areas shifting east of the area as upper level low center moves in. Low levels not expected to be as unstable also, so less heavy rain potential. However, still have rain showers in the forecast. Monday night both winds at 925mb and 250mb increase and are southerly. They both have some easterly component. Tuesday, showers linger and could potentially be heavy as right rear quad of upper level jet moves into the region. Divergence increases Monday into Tuesday with the upper level winds increasing. Regarding temperatures, for tonight used a combination of MAV and MET MOS as well as the NBM. Then blended in more raw data for Monday through Tuesday night as diurnal temperature differences become smaller.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper level low and weak sfc reflection pass through on Wed with chance of showers. An upper trough digging SE from Ontario and Quebec in their wake will send a cold front through on Thu with another chance for showers. The trough is progged to close off over the Northeast Fri into Sat, with a developing weak sfc low SE of Long Island on Fri pivoting to E of New England. With the upper low and associated cold pool aloft/low level cyclonic flow have partly cloudy skies and slight chance for showers for both Fri/Sat. Above normal temps on Wed should return to near normal on Thu and a few deg below normal on Fri. Temps on Sat could moderate to a few deg above normal, but this will depend on how quickly the upper low pulls away on Sat. If slower to exit temps on Sat could be more similar to those fcst for Fri. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Frontal boundary shifts north into early today. A lull in the rain shower activity expected until late this morning. Then more rain showers develop and gradually make their way farther east within the region this afternoon into tonight. Mainly VFR conditions through this morning although there is forecast to be some localized MVFR to LIFR conditions. MVFR chances with increasing chance of rain showers this afternoon. Higher chance of IFR and localized LIFR tonight. Winds remain southerly through today and then become more easterly tonight. Wind speeds vary from near 5 kts to near 15 kts. Some gusts can be expected to near 20 kt at times although this is not expected to be widespread. Wind speeds tonight lower to less than 10 kts. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Possible MVFR to IFR this morning. Amendments possible. Amendments likely to refine timing of showers and thunderstorms. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Monday: Showers likely with MVFR or lower expected. A chance of tstms mainly at night. E winds G15-20kt. Tuesday: Showers with MVFR or lower expected. A chance of thunderstorms. SE winds G15-20kt day into early eve possible. Wednesday: Chance of MVFR or lower with a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms. Thursday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE...
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Expecting all waters to remain below SCA this morning and through Monday morning. Thereafter, SCA potential increases through Tuesday night on the ocean as forecast seas reach near 5 to 6 ft at times. Quiet for Wed/Thu with winds/seas below SCA thresholds.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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Marginal flash flood risk for much of the area through early this week. Hourly rain rates at times could reach near 1 inch in 1 hour. Isolated flash flooding possible. Layer precipitable water reaches near 1.5 inches. Total rainfall forecast from this afternoon through Tuesday evening is near 2 to 3.5 inches. Locally higher amounts will be possible. Current forecast shows enough time period to keep flash flood risk marginal. Would expect a relatively greater chance of minor nuisance flooding in the low lying, urban, and other poor drainage areas. No hydrologic concerns mid to late this week.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BG/JM NEAR TERM...JM SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...BG AVIATION...JM MARINE...BG/JM HYDROLOGY...BG/JM