898
FXUS61 KOKX 060942
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
542 AM EDT Tue May 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary remains near the region today as high pressure
moves across the Canadian Maritimes. At the same time, a broad area
of low pressure over the Ohio Valley will slowly track east. The
front gradually north tonight, while low pressure approaches from
the west. The low will then slide northeast through the area on
Wednesday. A cold front will approach from the northwest on Thursday
and stall nearby Thursday night as low pressure develops along it
over the Mid Atlantic region. Low pressure will track over or just
southeast of the region Friday into early Saturday, before heading
up the New England coast. Another cold front will approach from the
northwest on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Forecast generally on track this morning. A band of showers, some of it moderate to locally heavy continues to stream northward off the ocean, mainly impacting portions of eastern Long Island and eastern CT. Right now, as the precip move northward, it it also slowly shifting eastward, which has prevented any flooding issues across these areas. There has been a gradually weakening of the showers. Patchy fog has also developed across the forecast area. We may get a break in the precipitation this morning as this band slides eastward, however there will continue to be a chance of showers throughout the day. While the forecast calls for mostly cloudy skies, there is a chance that some partial clearing occurs. If it does, there may be a bit more instability this afternoon, especially west of the NYC metro area. There still looks to be enough of a marine influence to keep it more elevated and unlikely to reach severe limits. With the upper low approaching, impulses will move in from the south with additional bands/pockets of rain. Localized amounts up to an inch will be possibly with potential training of cells in a deep-layered southerly flow. Minor nuisance flooding will continue to be possible. Temperatures will climb into the middle and upper 60s to lower 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... The threat of showers and possible thunder continues tonight with the best chances for any storms west of NYC, mainly early in the period where the airmass has its best chance to be unstable. POPs gradually decrease after midnight, but don`t completely go away. As the low lifts north of the region, the trough axis moves over the area. As the trough moves across the area and interacts with a cold pool aloft plus any daytime heating should result in enough instability for at least some showers and thunderstorms from about late Wed morning into the evening. The best chances for any storms right now appear to be N and NW of NYC. Lows tonight fall into the 50s. Daytime highs on Wednesday will be in the 60s and lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... No significant changes in the overall forecast pattern through the long term and stuck fairly close to the previous forecast/NBM. The period starts off Wednesday night with low pressure departing the region with drier conditions working into the area. The drying conditions in the wake of this low will be short lived as the next cold front approaches Thursday afternoon and evening. Good agreement in surface cyclogenesis over the Mid Atlantic region along the cold front Thursday night into Friday as the digging northern stream trough phases with the southern jet and closes off at its base across the Central Appalachians. One change from the previous forecast is the timing, with the latest NBM speeding up the timing of this system. Regardless, Friday appears to be a rather wet day, the question is how quickly does this system depart the region. Will it be Friday later afternoon/evening or does is slow down enough that the does not depart until late Friday night into early Saturday. Either way, expect a period of moderate to locally heavy rain late Thursday night into Friday with deep layered lift and convergence of Gulf/sub-tropical moisture feed over the region as low pressure tracks over or near the region. Conditions improve on Saturday in wake of the low pressure system. Another shortwave likely crosses the area with cold frontal passage Sunday afternoon/evening. Expect dry conditions to start the week as high pressure builds back into the area for Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will be near to slightly above seasonable for Thursday, falling to a few to several degrees below seasonable Friday with low pressure affecting the area. Temperatures then moderate back to normal on Saturday, then above seasonable for Sunday into early next week. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Frontal boundary remains stalled within the region through the TAF period. Mainly IFR or lower with low clouds, few spots of fog, and periods of rain through the morning hours. Improvement to MVFR late in the day to early evening. Showers still anticipated to end or become much more isolated in the evening. Dry and returning to VFR overnight, with possible IFR conditions of low ceilings and fog lingering for eastern terminals, mainly KGON, past 6Z Wed. Winds easterly around 10kt, backing more SE for Tuesday afternoon. Gusts around 20 kt may be occasional at some terminals, but could prevail KISP. KGON, possibly. Winds back south late in the evening, dropping below 10 kt, then outlying terminals may go light and variable overnight, with other terminals near 5 kt, becoming SW. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Vsbys will fluctuate between LIFR and VFR this morning, but cigs should remain mostly IFR/LIFR. Timing of improvement of each category Tue into Tue night could be off by a couple of hours. Can`t rule out an isolated tstm during the day or early evening. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Wednesday: VFR/MVFR in the morning with IFR east of the city terminals, then mainly VFR in the afternoon. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Thursday: MVFR possible with a chance of showers, mainly at night. Friday: MVFR possible with a chance of showers. A slight chance of thunderstorms. Saturday: Mainly VFR, except MVFR or lower possible in slight chance of showers. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Marginal SCA conditions for seas around 5 ft will continue through the day Tuesday in an E/SE flow. Latest NWPS guidance has the 5 ft seas continuing into tonight, so will extend the SCA to cover that time period. With uncertainty with just how long the 5ft seas last, will extend all the ocean zones through tonight, however as seas fall, the SCA may be able to end early. Marginal 4-5 ft ocean seas possible Wed into Wed night in mainly a residual E/SE swell, with sub SCA conditions likely on Thu under a weak pressure gradient. Next potential for SCA conditions Fri/Sat on all waters with coastal low pressure. Low prob for gales on the ocean in E/SE flow ahead of the low if stronger coastal development evolves. && .HYDROLOGY... An additional 0.5-1.50 inches of rainfall will be possible with locally higher amounts possible in any thunderstorms or storm training through tonight. Generally looking at nuisance ponding of water with just an isolated flash flood threat. There is the potential for a period of moderate to locally heavy rain for late Thursday night and Friday time period. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ350-353- 355. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC NEAR TERM...BC SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...BR MARINE...BC HYDROLOGY...BC