656
FXUS61 KOKX 061642
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1242 PM EDT Tue May 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary remains near the region today as high pressure
moves across the Canadian Maritimes. At the same time, a broad area
of low pressure over the Ohio Valley will slowly track east. The
front gradually north tonight, while low pressure approaches from
the west. The low will then slide northeast through the area on
Wednesday. A cold front will approach from the northwest on Thursday
and stall nearby Thursday night as low pressure develops along it
over the Mid Atlantic region. Low pressure will track over or just
southeast of the region Friday into early Saturday, before heading
up the New England coast. Another cold front will approach from the
northwest on Sunday.

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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Updated forecast to lower POPs over western portions of the forecast area, including NYC, northeast NJ, and Lower Hudson Valley for the next couple of hours at least as the line of showers that was stretching from the Great Lakes region to off the Mid-Atlantic coast earlier has pushed east, along the slowly moving cold front. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the aforementioned areas later this afternoon into the early evening hours as the upper low and associated cold pool aloft slowly moves northeast. While the forecast calls for mostly cloudy skies, there is a chance that some partial clearing occurs. If it does, there may be a bit more instability this afternoon, especially west of the NYC metro area. There still looks to be enough of a marine influence to keep it more elevated and unlikely to reach severe limits. With the upper low approaching, impulses will move in from the south with additional bands/pockets of rain. Localized amounts up to an inch will be possibly with potential training of cells in a deep-layered southerly flow. Minor nuisance flooding will continue to be possible. Temperatures will climb into the middle and upper 60s to lower 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... The threat of showers and possible thunder continues tonight with the best chances for any storms west of NYC, mainly early in the period where the airmass has its best chance to be unstable. POPs gradually decrease after midnight, but don`t completely go away. As the low lifts north of the region, the trough axis moves over the area. As the trough moves across the area and interacts with a cold pool aloft plus any daytime heating should result in enough instability for at least some showers and thunderstorms from about late Wed morning into the evening. The best chances for any storms right now appear to be N and NW of NYC. Lows tonight fall into the 50s. Daytime highs on Wednesday will be in the 60s and lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... No significant changes in the overall forecast pattern through the long term and stuck fairly close to the previous forecast/NBM. The period starts off Wednesday night with low pressure departing the region with drier conditions working into the area. The drying conditions in the wake of this low will be short lived as the next cold front approaches Thursday afternoon and evening. Good agreement in surface cyclogenesis over the Mid Atlantic region along the cold front Thursday night into Friday as the digging northern stream trough phases with the southern jet and closes off at its base across the Central Appalachians. One change from the previous forecast is the timing, with the latest NBM speeding up the timing of this system. Regardless, Friday appears to be a rather wet day, the question is how quickly does this system depart the region. Will it be Friday later afternoon/evening or does is slow down enough that the does not depart until late Friday night into early Saturday. Either way, expect a period of moderate to locally heavy rain late Thursday night into Friday with deep layered lift and convergence of Gulf/sub-tropical moisture feed over the region as low pressure tracks over or near the region. Conditions improve on Saturday in wake of the low pressure system. Another shortwave likely crosses the area with cold frontal passage Sunday afternoon/evening. Expect dry conditions to start the week as high pressure builds back into the area for Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will be near to slightly above seasonable for Thursday, falling to a few to several degrees below seasonable Friday with low pressure affecting the area. Temperatures then moderate back to normal on Saturday, then above seasonable for Sunday into early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Frontal boundary lingers nearby through tonight, exiting north and east into Wednesday. Mainly IFR or lower with stratus, areas of mist and fog, and periods of rain thru this afternoon. Improvement to MVFR early evening, toward and after 00Z. Showers anticipated to become much more isolated during this time as well. Returning to VFR overnight, though IFR cigs could redevelop in spots and fog potentially lingers for eastern terminals, mainly KGON, past 6Z Wed. Thunder has been omitted from TAFs, but can`t be entirely ruled out this afternoon. A few showers remain possible on Wed, but coverage and chances too low to include in TAF at this time. Winds veer SE this afternoon, speeds around 10 kt. A few gusts toward 20 kt could develop, but expected to largely remain more occasional. Flow lightens and goes southerly tonight, then SW on Wed with speeds once again near 10 kt. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Conditions may fluctuate between LIFR and VFR at times but largely remain IFR or LIFR thru the day. Isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out today. Timing of improvement could be off by a couple of hours. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Wednesday: Possible IFR/MVFR early, then mainly VFR. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Thursday: MVFR possible with a chance of showers, mainly at night. Friday: MVFR possible with a chance of showers. A slight chance of thunderstorms. Saturday: Mainly VFR, except MVFR or lower possible in slight chance of showers. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Marginal SCA conditions for seas around 5 ft will continue through the day Tuesday in an E/SE flow. Latest NWPS guidance has the 5 ft seas continuing into tonight, so will extend the SCA to cover that time period. With uncertainty with just how long the 5ft seas last, will extend all the ocean zones through tonight, however as seas fall, the SCA may be able to end early. Marginal 4-5 ft ocean seas possible Wed into Wed night in mainly a residual E/SE swell, with sub SCA conditions likely on Thu under a weak pressure gradient. Next potential for SCA conditions Fri/Sat on all waters with coastal low pressure. Low prob for gales on the ocean in E/SE flow ahead of the low if stronger coastal development evolves. && .HYDROLOGY... An additional 0.5-1.50 inches of rainfall will be possible with locally higher amounts possible in any thunderstorms or storm training through tonight. Generally looking at nuisance ponding of water with just an isolated flash flood threat. There is the potential for a period of moderate to locally heavy rain for late Thursday night and Friday time period. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353- 355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BC NEAR TERM...BC/JP SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...BR/DR MARINE...BC HYDROLOGY...BC