711
FXUS61 KOKX 071815
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
215 PM EDT Wed May 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
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After weak high pressure builds into the region tonight, a
stalled front north of New York City will set the stage for a
soaking rainfall later Thursday into Friday. A few showers may
linger into Saturday before high pressure brings drier weather
early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Not seeing much in way of showers on radar this afternoon so
far but satellite loop shows cloudiness rotating into Tri State
Area from upstate NY and PA which will pass through region early
tonight. High-res models/ensembles still indicate a few showers
may develop near lower Hudson Valley into adjacent parts of CT
through sunset. As upper trough rotates through tonight,
cloudiness will linger and should prevent any fog formation
overnight.
Weak cold front approaches overnight and probably stalls to the
north of NYC Thursday. Front has little moisture to work with
so we`re expecting dry weather to persist through much of day,
though a few showers could arrive late Thu afternoon in NE NJ,
lower Hudson Valley, and even NYC. Pressure gradient remains
weak which will allow for coastal sea breezes Thu afternoon.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Key Messages:
* Soaking rainfall of 1-2" Thu night into Fri, perhaps up to 3"
in parts of Orange County.
* Urban/poor drainage flooding possible for the Fri AM commute
but rivers/streams should remain within their banks.
Low pressure will track from mid Atlantic to near NYC Thu night
into Fri before slowly heading into New England Sat, bringing
widespread soaking rainfall to region. Another blocky pattern
taking shape as upper low closes off over eastern Great Lakes
and eventually captures surface low, resulting in slow
improvement (drying) by Saturday.
Pattern certainly favors widespread rainfall with plenty of
large scale lift and broad southerly flow aloft which will bring
deep moisture into Northeast. That said, we`re not seeing a lot
of signals for excessive (flooding) rainfall with many of the
ensemble parameters within 90th percentile, though PWATs of up
to 1.5" are certainly anomalous for this time of year. Area to
keep an eye on is near Catskills (Orange County) where we could
see totals of 2-3" in a few locations.
Ensemble river forecasts show some rises but all within their
banks and despite recent rainfall, global and CAM ensemble
probabilities for 2"+ rainfall are within FFG values.
Nonetheless, we do expect to see pockets of usual urban and poor
drainage flooding around time of Friday AM commute. Given all
of this, we`ll hold off on Flood Watches at this time but if
things trend upwards we would need to consider a Flood Watch
for for parts of the region (especially Orange County).-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Drier pattern takes shape after Saturday as upper flow becomes
more zonal into early next week and yet another upper low closes
off over Gulf Coast. We should also see temperatures rebound to
near or even above normal levels during this time.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A trough of low pressure will remain near the terminals
through tonight before a cold front stalls north of NYC
Thursday.
VFR through Thu with ceilings AOA 050 much of the time. A brief
isolated shower is possible in lower Hudson Valley and into
western CT later this afternoon but not enough confidence to
include in TAFs. Did add mention (Prob30) of showers for NYC
metro airports late Thu afternoon, but showers along with
MVFR/IFR conditions are more likely Thu night into Fri.
SW winds around 10kt through the evening except S sea breeze at
KJFK. Not confident that it reaches KLGA but there is a low
chance 21z-00z. Lighter W winds tonight shift to N/NW overnight,
with sea breezes at KJFK/KLGA Thu afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday: MVFR or lower possible in showers.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, except MVFR or lower possible isolated
showers.
Sunday and Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
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Weak pressure gradient will maintain sub-SCA conditions through
at least Fri. It`s possible we see marginal SCA conditions on at
least ocean waters as low pressure tracks through region Fri
into Sat along with widespread rainfall.
High pressure builds over region early next week with wind and
sea conditions staying below SCA.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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Odds favor a widespread 1-2" rainfall late Thursday into Friday
night, but locally there could be some 2-3" totals near
Catskills including Orange County. Despite recent rainfall,
flood impacts are expected to be minor and limited to usual
urban and poor drainage areas, but if rainfall is expected to be
higher, we may need Flood Watches for parts of the region
(especially Orange County).-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
JWD