121
FXUS61 KOKX 080010
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
810 PM EDT Wed May 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will approach from the northwest, preceded by a pre-frontal trough that settles into the area. The cold front will then slowly sag across the area on Thursday, stalling near of just northwest of New York City by evening. This will set the stage for a soaking rainfall later Thursday into Friday. A few showers may linger into Saturday before high pressure brings drier weather early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Mid level cloud deck across much of the region early this evening as pre frontal trough axis shifts overhead. Absent a few spotty showers or sprinkles, mainly across the interior, conditions remain dry thru tonight. Previous discussion follows. Not seeing much in way of showers on radar this afternoon so far but satellite loop shows cloudiness rotating into Tri State Area from upstate NY and PA which will pass through region early tonight. High-res models/ensembles still indicate a few showers may develop near lower Hudson Valley into adjacent parts of CT through sunset. As upper trough rotates through tonight, cloudiness will linger and should prevent any fog formation overnight. Weak cold front approaches overnight and probably stalls to the north of NYC Thursday. Front has little moisture to work with so we`re expecting dry weather to persist through much of day, though a few showers could arrive late Thu afternoon in NE NJ, lower Hudson Valley, and even NYC. Pressure gradient remains weak which will allow for coastal sea breezes Thu afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: * Soaking rainfall of 1-2" Thu night into Fri, perhaps up to 3" in parts of Orange County. * Urban/poor drainage flooding possible for the Fri AM commute but rivers/streams should remain within their banks. Low pressure will track from mid Atlantic to near NYC Thu night into Fri before slowly heading into New England Sat, bringing widespread soaking rainfall to region. Another blocky pattern taking shape as upper low closes off over eastern Great Lakes and eventually captures surface low, resulting in slow improvement (drying) by Saturday. Pattern certainly favors widespread rainfall with plenty of large scale lift and broad southerly flow aloft which will bring deep moisture into Northeast. That said, we`re not seeing a lot of signals for excessive (flooding) rainfall with many of the ensemble parameters within 90th percentile, though PWATs of up to 1.5" are certainly anomalous for this time of year. Area to keep an eye on is near Catskills (Orange County) where we could see totals of 2-3" in a few locations. Ensemble river forecasts show some rises but all within their banks and despite recent rainfall, global and CAM ensemble probabilities for 2"+ rainfall are within FFG values. Nonetheless, we do expect to see pockets of usual urban and poor drainage flooding around time of Friday AM commute. Given all of this, we`ll hold off on Flood Watches at this time but if things trend upwards we would need to consider a Flood Watch for for parts of the region (especially Orange County). && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Drier pattern takes shape after Saturday as upper flow becomes more zonal into early next week and yet another upper low closes off over Gulf Coast. We should also see temperatures rebound to near or even above normal levels during this time. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A pre-frontal trough will settle across the area overnight before a cold front stalls near or just northwest of NYC Thursday. Mainly a VFR forecast with MVFR/IFR conditions to develop in showers after 00Z Friday for the 30H TAF sites. Prob30 mentioned in the NYC, Lower Hudson Valley, and KBDR terminals in the afternoon/early evening. Widespread showers, some moderate to heavy at the 30h TAF sites after 00Z Friday. SW/S winds less than 10kt this evening will become light and variable across most of the terminals before shifting to the N/NE behind a surface trough late tonight into the morning. S/SE winds to develop at the coastal terminals late morning with some locations at times closer to a true seabreeze. There is some uncertainly as to how far south the cold front gets tomorrow evening, but is currently forecast to stall near or just northwest of the NYC terminals. Winds will likely vary from E to N/NE at 10kt or less across the boundary. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Expect multiple wind shifts through Thursday with timing varying by 1-2 hours. Winds generally less than 10 kt. There could also be a few showers late Thursday morning into the afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Thursday Night-Friday: MVFR or lower in moderate to heavy showers. Low chance of a thunderstorm. Saturday: Mainly VFR, except MVFR or lower possible isolated showers. Sunday and Monday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE... Weak pressure gradient will maintain sub-SCA conditions through at least Fri. It`s possible we see marginal SCA conditions on at least ocean waters as low pressure tracks through region Fri into Sat along with widespread rainfall. High pressure builds over region early next week with wind and sea conditions staying below SCA. && .HYDROLOGY... Odds favor a widespread 1-2" rainfall late Thursday into Friday night, but locally there could be some 2-3" totals near Catskills including Orange County. Despite recent rainfall, flood impacts are expected to be minor and limited to usual urban and poor drainage areas, but if rainfall is expected to be higher, we may need Flood Watches for parts of the region (especially Orange County). && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...99 NEAR TERM...DR/99 SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...DW MARINE...99 HYDROLOGY...99