761
FXUS61 KOKX 081944
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
344 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A frontal system and associated low will slowly track across the area through Friday. A weak cold front will cross the region Saturday night, with high pressure building in for early next week. Another low pressure system approaches for the middle of next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Shwrs and tstms will continue to generate across mainly wrn portions of the area into this eve. Falling heights combines with instability and now residual boundaries will help to fuel the slow moving activity. The modeling indicates storm motion generally 5kt or less. As a result, there is a flood threat into this eve where this activity continues to develop. As an upr low currently over Ontario continues to drop swd tngt, low pres will begin to develop late with the theta-e ridge beginning to build into the area. This will result in increasing chances for shwrs and perhaps isold tstms to develop nwd early in the mrng. A flood watch has been issued for CT, NY north of NYC, and nrn NJ until late Fri ngt. This captures the chance for isold flash flooding this eve, and the additional rain for Fri as the low begins to wrap up. See the hydro section for more details. There is a chance that some patchy fog develops tngt, particularly ern cstl areas. Increasing clouds and the development of shwrs appear to be limiting factors however, so it was kept out of the fcst for now.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Periods of rain with embedded tstms will continue on Fri, gradually tapering off from SW to NE late Fri ngt. Low pres likely tracks across the cwa during the day. This should keep the heaviest rainfall across the nrn half of the cwa, with a dry slot potentially limiting amounts from srn NJ thru NYC and into LI. LI could be tricky however, with shwrs and tstms developing ahead of the low which could overperform with convection enhanced on the nose of the theta-e ridge and invof the warm front. Any change in track of the low will alter the rainfall distribution for this event. Most of the tstm activity looks to be elevated, so the main threat with this sys is expected to be the rain attm. Widespread urban and poor drainage flooding, as well as some mainly minor river flooding, are the expected primary impacts in the watch area. Cooler temps on Fri with the rain and the NBM was followed there.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Dry weather is expected by midday Saturday with the low exiting to the northeast and high pressure gradually beginning to take over. Another shortwave and associated surface cold front moves across the area Saturday night into early Sunday morning with Canadian high pressure building into its wake and gradually rising heights. The high will keep conditions dry through at least much of Tuesday. The next chance of precip comes by later Tuesday or Wednesday with the approach of the next low pressure system. Temperatures through the long term will remain at or slightly above normal with highs in the 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front stalls nearby tonight with low pressure traveling along the front late tonight into Friday. Mainly a VFR forecast through this evening. Most of the shower activity will be confined to the northern and northwestern terminals (KSWF, KHPN, KTEB, and KEWR). Expect amendments for these terminals for TSRA / SHRA through at least 0z with brief MVFR conditions possible in any heavy showers. Prevailing conditions for the city terminals fall to MVFR towards 04-06z. IFR conditions become more widespread late in the overnight towards 09-12z. IFR conditions prevail Friday morning with pockets of LIFR possible for KGON. Winds will likely vary from N/NE to E under 10kt into this evening, and around or under 5 kt at most terminals late tonight as winds become more light and variable into Friday morning. E Winds increase to up to 10 kt late Friday morning. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Multiple wind shifts possible through early this evening with timing varying by 1-2 hours. Wind speeds generally less than 10 kt. Low chance of thunderstorms this evening for KEWR and KTEB. Confidence remains too low to include in TAFs. Amendments possible through Friday with changing flight categories. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Friday afternoon: Mainly IFR and MVFR in moderate to heavy showers. Low chance of a thunderstorm. Saturday: Mainly VFR, except MVFR or lower possible isolated showers. Sunday through Tuesday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Seas build on Fri as low pres develops W of the waters and then tracks across LI. A sca has been issued on the ocean for this, lasting thru Fri ngt. Winds increase all areas late Fri ngt. Speeds are mrgnl so did not issue a sca on any of the protected waters for this. SCA conditions could continue on the ocean waters through Saturday for marginal 25kt gusts and 5 ft seas. Thereafter, conditions look to remain below SCA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
Around 2 inches of additional rainfall can be expected thru Fri ngt. Locally higher amounts are possible, especially across the interior where slow moving shwrs and tstms will continue to impact the area into this eve. The RFC ensembles indicate minor river flooding possible across CT. FFG is lowest across NJ into NY. For these reasons, a Flood Watch has been issued for all areas N of NYC and LI, including the nrn NJ zones. Some areas of minor urban and poor drainage flooding can be expected outside of the watch area as well, but the more significant flood risk in low attm. There are no hydrologic concerns Saturday through mid next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Flood Watch through late Friday night for CTZ005>012. NY...Flood Watch through late Friday night for NYZ067>071. NJ...Flood Watch through late Friday night for NJZ002-004-103-104. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/JT NEAR TERM...JMC SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JT AVIATION...JE MARINE...JMC/JT HYDROLOGY...JMC/JT