186
FXUS61 KOKX 091504
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1104 AM EDT Fri May 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system and associated low will slowly track across the
area today. A weak cold front will cross the region Saturday night,
with high pressure building in for early next week. Another low
pressure system approaches for the middle of next week.

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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Forecast has been updated with primarily minor adjustments to PoPs and rainfall amounts. Enhanced lift via llj along with a narrow corridor of instability will be producing moderate to periodically heavy rainfall over eastern Long Island into this afternoon. Farther west, lift is not as strong and likely lacking a convective element, so mainly light to moderate rainfall with still a possibility of brief heavy downpours. Potential impacts remain primarily minor urban/poor drainage/small stream flooding. Still cannot rule out localized flash flooding over eastern LI with up to around 1.50 inch per hour rainfall rates. No severe thunderstorms anticipated with stable low levels and only modest shear. LLJ and deepest moisture begin to shift east out of the forecast area late this afternoon with a lowering threat of showers, but a weak surface low tracking through this evening along with a potent shortwave aloft maintain the threat of additional showers tonight. Flood Watch remains in effect for the time being. Given trends in obs and models, may be able to cancel the watch before its 1 am expiration time.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Dry weather is expected by midday Saturday and into the weekend with the low exiting to the northeast and high pressure gradually beginning to take over. Another shortwave and associated surface cold front moves across the area Saturday night into early Sunday morning with Canadian high pressure building into its wake and gradually rising heights. Breezy NW/WNW winds are expected through the day Saturday due to an increased pressure gradient at the surface from low pressure departing northeast. Highs will remain at or slightly above normal in the upper-60s to low-70s on Saturday and Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will keep conditions dry through at least much of Tuesday. The next chance of precip comes by later Tuesday or Wednesday with the approach of the next low pressure system. Temperatures through the long term will remain at or slightly above normal with highs in the 70s. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Low pressure develops over the area early this afternoon and pulls away to the north and northeast tonight. Weak high pressure off to the west builds closer during Saturday. Eastern most terminals have held on to VFR and MVFR longer than anticipated, but even eastern terminals fall to IFR this afternoon. Primarily IFR conditions will remain through the day and into this evening and through early Saturday morning. LIFR conditions remain possible locally for low ceilings. Regarding the steadier rainfall, this shall come to an end earlier for the NYC terminals, but lingers longer into a portion of the afternoon for KSWF and eastern northeastern terminals like KISP, KGON, and KBDR. Embedded TSRA remain possible, particularly for the eastern coastal terminals such as KISP and KGON where TEMPO groups were utilized, otherwise where confidence of occurrence is lower maintained PROB30 for some terminals. Some lingering showers and vicinity showers this evening into a portion of the overnight, but prevailing showers not expected. IFR conditions give way to MVFR near the morning push Saturday morning, eventually improving to VFR by Saturday mid to late morning. Mainly E winds to start around 10 kt. NYC and LI terminals could become SE for time for the early afternoon. Also a brief period of higher winds of around 15 kt and could be a few gusts to around 20 kt at the eastern coastal terminals. By this evening, the low pressure system moves northeast with winds in its wake becoming W or NW and increasing in speed into Saturday morning. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments likely through this evening with changing flight categories and wind direction changes. Winds could go SE early this afternoon, especially at KJFK. A few gusts to around 20 kt possible. There remains a low chance for thunderstorms until 17Z for KJFK and KLGA. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Saturday: Mainly VFR, except MVFR or lower possible isolated showers. NW gusts 25-30kt possible. Sunday through Tuesday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE...
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Seas build as low pres develops S of the waters and then tracks across LI. A SCA has been issued on the ocean for this. Winds increase all areas late Fri ngt. Speeds are mrgnl so did not issue a sca on any of the protected waters for this. SCA conditions could continue on the ocean waters through Saturday for marginal 25kt gusts and 5 ft seas. Thereafter, conditions look to remain below SCA.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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An additional 1-2 inches of rainfall potential over eastern LI, otherwise a half inch to inch elsewhere. Potential impacts remain primarily minor urban/poor drainage/small stream flooding. Still cannot rule out localized flash flooding over eastern LI. There are no hydrologic concerns Saturday through mid next week.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Flood Watch through late tonight for CTZ005>012. NY...Flood Watch through late tonight for NYZ067>071-078>081-177- 179. NJ...Flood Watch through late tonight for NJZ002-004-103-104. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353- 355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BR NEAR TERM...JC/BR SHORT TERM...BR LONG TERM...JT AVIATION...JE/MW MARINE...BR/JT HYDROLOGY...BR/JT