186
FXUS61 KOKX 091504
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1104 AM EDT Fri May 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system and associated low will slowly track across the
area today. A weak cold front will cross the region Saturday night,
with high pressure building in for early next week. Another low
pressure system approaches for the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast has been updated with primarily minor adjustments to
PoPs and rainfall amounts. Enhanced lift via llj along with a
narrow corridor of instability will be producing moderate to
periodically heavy rainfall over eastern Long Island into this
afternoon. Farther west, lift is not as strong and likely
lacking a convective element, so mainly light to moderate
rainfall with still a possibility of brief heavy downpours.
Potential impacts remain primarily minor urban/poor
drainage/small stream flooding. Still cannot rule out localized
flash flooding over eastern LI with up to around 1.50 inch per
hour rainfall rates. No severe thunderstorms anticipated with
stable low levels and only modest shear.
LLJ and deepest moisture begin to shift east out of the forecast
area late this afternoon with a lowering threat of showers, but
a weak surface low tracking through this evening along with a
potent shortwave aloft maintain the threat of additional showers
tonight.
Flood Watch remains in effect for the time being. Given trends
in obs and models, may be able to cancel the watch before its 1
am expiration time.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather is expected by midday Saturday and into the weekend with
the low exiting to the northeast and high pressure gradually
beginning to take over.
Another shortwave and associated surface cold front moves across the
area Saturday night into early Sunday morning with Canadian high
pressure building into its wake and gradually rising heights.
Breezy NW/WNW winds are expected through the day Saturday due to
an increased pressure gradient at the surface from low pressure
departing northeast.
Highs will remain at or slightly above normal in the upper-60s to
low-70s on Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will keep conditions dry through at least much of
Tuesday. The next chance of precip comes by later Tuesday or
Wednesday with the approach of the next low pressure system.
Temperatures through the long term will remain at or slightly above
normal with highs in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure develops over the area early this afternoon and pulls
away to the north and northeast tonight. Weak high pressure off to
the west builds closer during Saturday.
Eastern most terminals have held on to VFR and MVFR longer than
anticipated, but even eastern terminals fall to IFR this afternoon.
Primarily IFR conditions will remain through the day and into this
evening and through early Saturday morning. LIFR conditions remain
possible locally for low ceilings. Regarding the steadier rainfall,
this shall come to an end earlier for the NYC terminals, but lingers
longer into a portion of the afternoon for KSWF and eastern
northeastern terminals like KISP, KGON, and KBDR. Embedded TSRA
remain possible, particularly for the eastern coastal terminals such
as KISP and KGON where TEMPO groups were utilized, otherwise where
confidence of occurrence is lower maintained PROB30 for some
terminals. Some lingering showers and vicinity showers this evening
into a portion of the overnight, but prevailing showers not
expected. IFR conditions give way to MVFR near the morning push
Saturday morning, eventually improving to VFR by Saturday mid to
late morning.
Mainly E winds to start around 10 kt. NYC and LI terminals could
become SE for time for the early afternoon. Also a brief period of
higher winds of around 15 kt and could be a few gusts to around 20
kt at the eastern coastal terminals. By this evening, the low
pressure system moves northeast with winds in its wake becoming W or
NW and increasing in speed into Saturday morning.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely through this evening with changing flight
categories and wind direction changes. Winds could go SE early this
afternoon, especially at KJFK. A few gusts to around 20 kt possible.
There remains a low chance for thunderstorms until 17Z for KJFK and
KLGA.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday: Mainly VFR, except MVFR or lower possible isolated
showers. NW gusts 25-30kt possible.
Sunday through Tuesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Seas build as low pres develops S of the waters and then tracks
across LI. A SCA has been issued on the ocean for this. Winds
increase all areas late Fri ngt. Speeds are mrgnl so did not
issue a sca on any of the protected waters for this.
SCA conditions could continue on the ocean waters through Saturday
for marginal 25kt gusts and 5 ft seas. Thereafter, conditions look
to remain below SCA.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
An additional 1-2 inches of rainfall potential over eastern LI,
otherwise a half inch to inch elsewhere.
Potential impacts remain primarily minor urban/poor
drainage/small stream flooding. Still cannot rule out localized
flash flooding over eastern LI.
There are no hydrologic concerns Saturday through mid next
week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Flood Watch through late tonight for CTZ005>012.
NY...Flood Watch through late tonight for NYZ067>071-078>081-177-
179.
NJ...Flood Watch through late tonight for NJZ002-004-103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-
355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR
NEAR TERM...JC/BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JE/MW
MARINE...BR/JT
HYDROLOGY...BR/JT