024
FXUS61 KOKX 091745
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
145 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system and associated low will slowly track across the
area today. A weak cold front will cross the region Saturday night,
with high pressure building in for early next week. Another low
pressure system approaches for the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast has been updated with primarily minor adjustments to
PoPs and rainfall amounts. Enhanced lift via llj along with a
narrow corridor of instability will be producing moderate to
periodically heavy rainfall over eastern Long Island into this
afternoon. Farther west, lift is not as strong and likely
lacking a convective element, so mainly light to moderate
rainfall with still a possibility of brief heavy downpours.
Potential impacts remain primarily minor urban/poor
drainage/small stream flooding. Still cannot rule out localized
flash flooding over eastern LI with up to around 1.50 inch per
hour rainfall rates. No severe thunderstorms anticipated with
stable low levels and only modest shear.
LLJ and deepest moisture begin to shift east out of the forecast
area late this afternoon with a lowering threat of showers, but
a weak surface low tracking through this evening along with a
potent shortwave aloft maintain the threat of additional showers
tonight.
Flood Watch remains in effect for the time being. Given trends
in obs and models, may be able to cancel the watch before its 1
am expiration time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather is expected by midday Saturday and into the weekend with
the low exiting to the northeast and high pressure gradually
beginning to take over.
Another shortwave and associated surface cold front moves across the
area Saturday night into early Sunday morning with Canadian high
pressure building into its wake and gradually rising heights.
Breezy NW/WNW winds are expected through the day Saturday due to
an increased pressure gradient at the surface from low pressure
departing northeast.
Highs will remain at or slightly above normal in the upper-60s to
low-70s on Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will keep conditions dry through at least much of
Tuesday. The next chance of precip comes by later Tuesday or
Wednesday with the approach of the next low pressure system.
Temperatures through the long term will remain at or slightly above
normal with highs in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure develops over the area this afternoon and pulls away to
the north and northeast tonight. Weak high pressure off to the west
builds closer during Saturday.
Mainly IFR conditions through this afternoon, with pockets of LIFR
due to low ceilings at times for a few terminals. IFR is expected to
prevail through 23-02z for most terminals, but will linger longer
(until 09-13z) for eastern terminals like KISP and KGON. Conditions
improve to VFR towards 07-09z for the city terminals, but later
Saturday morning (mainly just after the morning push) for the more
eastern and northern terminals (KSWF, KGON, KISP).
The steadier rainfall ends earlier for the NYC terminals early this
afternoon, but lingers longer into a portion of the afternoon for
KSWF and eastern northeastern terminals like KISP, KGON, and KBDR.
Embedded TSRA remain possible for KGON where a TEMPO group was
utilized. Some lingering showers and vicinity showers this evening
into a portion of the overnight, but prevailing showers not expected
except out towards KGON.
NYC and LI terminals will have a SE wind direction for a time early
this afternoon. Also a brief period of higher winds of 15 kt and
gusts to around 25 kt at the eastern coastal terminals. By this
evening the low pressure system moves northeast with winds in its
wake becoming W or NW and increasing in speed into Saturday
morning.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely through this evening with changing flight
categories and wind direction changes. A few gusts to around 20 kt
possible.
Timing of improving flight categories tonight could be delayed
by 2-3 hours.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday afternoon: VFR, NW winds 150g25-30kt.
Sunday through Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible in showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Seas build as low pres develops S of the waters and then tracks
across LI. A SCA has been issued on the ocean for this. Winds
increase all areas late Fri ngt. Speeds are mrgnl so did not
issue a sca on any of the protected waters for this.
SCA conditions could continue on the ocean waters through Saturday
for marginal 25kt gusts and 5 ft seas. Thereafter, conditions look
to remain below SCA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
An additional 1-2 inches of rainfall potential over eastern LI,
otherwise a half inch to inch elsewhere.
Potential impacts remain primarily minor urban/poor
drainage/small stream flooding. Still cannot rule out localized
flash flooding over eastern LI.
There are no hydrologic concerns Saturday through mid next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Flood Watch until 1 AM EDT Saturday for CTZ005>012.
NY...Flood Watch until 1 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ067>071-078>081-177-
179.
NJ...Flood Watch until 1 AM EDT Saturday for NJZ002-004-103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-
355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR
NEAR TERM...JC/BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BR/JT
HYDROLOGY...BR/JT