784
FXUS61 KOKX 100852
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
452 AM EDT Sat May 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in today and remains in control through
Sunday. Then a weak cold front passes on Sunday with high
pressure gradually moving offshore Sunday night through Monday
night, still remaining in control through much of Tuesday.
Unsettled weather returns the rest of next week as a slow, broad
low pressure system approaches from the south.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
An upper-level low can be seen spinning over Central to southern New
York this morning on water vapor imagery. At the surface, the low is
easy to distinguish by looking at the wind direction. This places
the center of the low over the Forks of Long Island. It
continues to exit east and north. Some areas of fog may still
be linger in the LI Forks or New London county, but should
clear within the next few hours as winds pick up from the
northwest in response to the surface low exiting north and east.
As the surface low and the upper-low both exit towards New England,
cloud cover with gradually decrease through the morning. Its likely
we see plenty of sunshine by the afternoon, but some areas of
southern Connecticut may still hold onto some clouds into the
afternoon, not losing them until the evening.
Light showers and drizzle will also be ending this morning with
the departure of the low. Some slight chances for light showers
may linger in southern Connecticut on the backside of the
exiting low until midday today.
As the low exits northeast, surface high pressure gradually builds
with heights slowly rising aloft. The pressure gradient will be
increased later this morning into the early evening, leading to
breezy NW flow. This may lead to some downslope compression with 850
mb temps also warming aloft. The flow will be strong enough to beat
back any sea breezes. Highs look to be in the upper-60s to mid-70s
for all.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Heights will continually rise tonight through Monday as a ridge
gradually approaches from the west. At the same time, a mid-level
low will be situated over the Gulf States, leaving us on the east
side of a Rex block pattern. This should leave us in a dry and sunny
pattern through Monday. High pressure remains at the surface through
this timeframe, as well, with winds remaining light under a weak
pressure gradient.
An upper-level trough passes far to our north/northeast in Canada on
Sunday, which may help bring a weak cold front to the area, but this
won`t do much for us given dry air in place.
Monday night, the rex block looks to break down with the low to our
southwest finally breaking through the ridge to its north and
approaching our area Monday night. This may lead to increasing cloud
cover towards daybreak Tuesday. Otherwise, we should remain dry
through Monday night.
High temperatures remain primarily at or above average through the
period with highs in the upper-60s to mid-70s. Lows will depart a
little more from average through. Saturday night will see lows in
the mid-50s to mid-40s, which is about average. But due to the weak
cold front, lows may drop into the low-40s in the interior on Sunday
night. Then as a low approaches to our southwest, lows Monday night
will only drop to the mid-50s to low-60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure is positioned to the east of the area on Tuesday as a
large upper level cut-off low over the Southern US begins to
approach the area from the south. Mid-level ridging should remain in
place during much of the day on Tuesday which should allow for the
area to remain mainly dry, though some showers may begin to approach
the area from the southwest as the impacts of the cutoff low begin
to be felt.
By Wednesday and through much of the remainder of the week, a weak
broad surface low pressure under the mid-level low will impact the
area with scattered showers under a general S/SE flow. The low will
slowly meander over the East Coast before eventually pushing
offshore sometime late in the week and into the weekend. There
doesn`t look to be much instability so thunderstorms remain unlikely
at this time. While the second half of the week is not expected to
be a washout, overcast skies will persist with scattered showers
possible through the weekend. A more organized frontal system may
approach from the west into the weekend which may bring another
round of showers.
Temperatures should remain fairly seasonable with highs each day in
the upper 60s to middle 70s and lows each night in the middle 50s to
lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure over the area will track slowly east this morning with
gradually improving conditions.
Conditions will gradually improve over the next several hours
with much of the NYC metro VFR already. While some reductions
back to MVFR remain possible through the morning push, generally
improving categories are expected from west to east through the
morning. Eastern terminals may not improve to VFR until after
daybreak and into the late morning or early afternoon,
specifically for KGON.
There will be also be widely scattered showers into the morning
hours as the upper low moves across the area. The best chance
will across the CT terminals and KSWF.
Winds out of the WNW at 10kt will gradually ramp up toward
daybreak, increasing to 15 to 20kt with G25-30kt by mid to late
morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of improving flight categories tonight could be off by
2-3 hours.
A few gusts may exceed 30 kt on Saturday.
.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday Night: VFR with diminishing W/NW winds.
Sunday through Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible in showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A SCA is up on ocean waters through late this afternoon for 5 ft
waves and gusty NW winds. A SCA is up through late this
afternoon on non-ocean waters for gusty NW winds. Winds and seas
diminish into tonight. Sub-SCA conditions are then expected
through Monday night.
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters through Tuesday night.
Marginal SCA conditions become possible under an increasing S/SE
flow as the pressure gradient tightens with the approach of a weak
frontal system from the southwest. Gusts may approach 25kt on the
ocean with wave heights near 5 feet possible.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through through the end of
next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/MW
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...BR/MW
HYDROLOGY...BR/MW