344
FXUS61 KOKX 101519
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1119 AM EDT Sat May 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in today and remains in control through
Sunday. Then a weak cold front passes on Sunday with high
pressure gradually moving offshore Sunday night through Monday
night, still remaining in control through much of Tuesday.
Unsettled weather returns the rest of next week as a slow, broad
low pressure system approaches from the south.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Main adjustments made with this update were for winds and
temperatures as NBM is typically too low with both elements in a
setup like this. Surface low pressure to our NE deepens, increasing
the pressure gradient over here for a period today. At the same
time, cyclonic flow aloft becomes more zonal as an upper low to our
east continues to shift farther away. Clouds will continue to be
more prevalent over CT - closer to the cyclonic flow, however
some cu development over western zones anticipated with the
help of some wet grounds from recent rainfall. This complicates
the high temp forecast, but given a strong enough downslope flow
and compressional heating along with progged 850mb temps around
6C, high temps probably end up a little higher than
deterministic NBM across much of the area away from CT. W to NW
gusts 25-35 mph through early afternoon diminish closer to 20-25
mph by late.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Heights will continually rise tonight through Monday as a ridge
gradually approaches from the west. At the same time, a mid-level
low will be situated over the Gulf States, leaving us on the east
side of a Rex block pattern. This should leave us in a dry and sunny
pattern through Monday. High pressure remains at the surface through
this timeframe, as well, with winds remaining light under a weak
pressure gradient.
An upper-level trough passes far to our north/northeast in Canada on
Sunday, which may help bring a weak cold front to the area, but this
won`t do much for us given dry air in place.
Monday night, the rex block looks to break down with the low to our
southwest finally breaking through the ridge to its north and
approaching our area Monday night. This may lead to increasing cloud
cover towards daybreak Tuesday. Otherwise, we should remain dry
through Monday night.
High temperatures remain primarily at or above average through the
period with highs in the upper-60s to mid-70s. Lows will depart a
little more from average through. Saturday night will see lows in
the mid-50s to mid-40s, which is about average. But due to the weak
cold front, lows may drop into the low-40s in the interior on Sunday
night. Then as a low approaches to our southwest, lows Monday night
will only drop to the mid-50s to low-60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure is positioned to the east of the area on Tuesday as a
large upper level cut-off low over the Southern US begins to
approach the area from the south. Mid-level ridging should remain in
place during much of the day on Tuesday which should allow for the
area to remain mainly dry, though some showers may begin to approach
the area from the southwest as the impacts of the cutoff low begin
to be felt.
By Wednesday and through much of the remainder of the week, a weak
broad surface low pressure under the mid-level low will impact the
area with scattered showers under a general S/SE flow. The low will
slowly meander over the East Coast before eventually pushing
offshore sometime late in the week and into the weekend. There
doesn`t look to be much instability so thunderstorms remain unlikely
at this time. While the second half of the week is not expected to
be a washout, overcast skies will persist with scattered showers
possible through the weekend. A more organized frontal system may
approach from the west into the weekend which may bring another
round of showers.
Temperatures should remain fairly seasonable with highs each day in
the upper 60s to middle 70s and lows each night in the middle 50s to
lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will gradually build from the west through Sunday.
Still MVFR at KGON into early afternoon, otherwise VFR with
gusty NW flow mostly between 25-30 kt, gradually diminishing
late this afternoon. A few gusts over 30 kt possible at the NYC
metros. Gusts end this evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
A few gusts over 30 kt possible til 18Z-19Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday through Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower cond possible in showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A SCA is up on ocean waters through late this afternoon for 5 ft
waves and gusty NW winds. A SCA is up through late this
afternoon on non-ocean waters for gusty NW winds. Winds and seas
diminish into tonight. Sub-SCA conditions are then expected
through Monday night.
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters through Tuesday night.
Marginal SCA conditions become possible under an increasing S/SE
flow as the pressure gradient tightens with the approach of a weak
frontal system from the southwest. Gusts may approach 25kt on the
ocean with wave heights near 5 feet possible.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through through the end of
next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/MW
NEAR TERM...JC/BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...BG/MW
MARINE...BR/MW
HYDROLOGY...BR/MW