343
FXUS61 KOKX 111113
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
713 AM EDT Sun May 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Sunday night. The high
then moves offshore on Monday into Monday night. Unsettled
weather returns much of next week as a slow, broad low pressure
system approaches from the south Tuesday and lingers through
Thursday. Another frontal system may move through next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure at the surface continues to build in from the
northwest today, settling and centering itself over the area
tonight. At the same time, a ridging pattern continues to push
eastward towards us, leading to heights rising aloft through the day
today and into tonight.
Mainly sunny skies are expected today into tonight. We`ll be under a
light N/NW flow. Highs today should be able to get into the upper-
60s to lower-70s. Under clear skies and light flow, radiational
cooling should be very efficient tonight. Lows will be in the
low/mid-50s while interior locations should drop into the mid/low-
40s. The LI Pine Barrens may even drop into the upper-30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The pattern shifts a little on Monday. High pressure pushes offshore
as an upper-level low approaches from the southeastern US.
This leads to southerly flow returning, bringing moisture back up
with it. While Monday will start sunny, clouds will gradually
increase through the day and into the night as high pressure loses
its hold to the approaching low. Showers may begin, from the
southwest, just before daybreak Tuesday as the low nears with ample
moisture now in place.
Temperatures will be in the low/mid-70s for many Monday afternoon.
Due to southerly flow returning, the ocean may lead to highs limited
in the mid/upper-60s for areas under more of a marine influence such
as Long Island, coastal Connecticut, and southeastern
Connecticut.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure is positioned to the east of the area on Tuesday as a
large upper level cut-off low over the Southern US begins to
approach the area from the south. The reintegration of this mid-
level energy into the mean flow will allow several waves of energy
to move through the area resulting in shower activity for the better
part of next week. The surface disturbance moves east by Friday
which may result in a day with mostly dry conditions, however, with
the upper trough overhead, widely scattered shower still can`t be
ruled out.
By the weekend, a digging trough with an embedded shortwave moves
into the Great Lakes region. This will allow a surface frontal
system to develop and bring a cold front through the area sometime
over the weekend resulting in additional showers once again.
Given the uncertain nature of the cloud cover toward the end of the
week with the upper trough remaining generally overhead,
temperatures may move in either direction. Otherwise, temperatures
through the long term are generally around average with highs each
day in the upper 60s to low 70s Tuesday through Thursday.
Temperatures are expected to increase a bit on Friday and into
Saturday but this will ultimately depend on the evolution of the
upper trough and incoming frontal system.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR as high pressure gradually builds in from the northwest
today.
Light and variable flow this morning becomes NNW and increases
to near 10kt by 14Z. Some gusts up to 20 kt east of the NYC
metros, and an occasional gust 15-18 kt from the metros
north/west remain possible today. Absent any thin cirrus, clear
skies prevail. Light and variable winds likely again tonight
becoming SE by Monday morning as the high pushes offshore.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected. A few infrequent gusts to 20kt
possible today.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: MVFR cigs possible especially from the NYC metros
west.
Tuesday night: Low stratus/fog with IFR cond possible especially
near the coast at KJFK/KISP/KHPN/KBDR/KGON, otherwise MVFR cond
expected. Chance of showers.
Wednesday and Thursday: MVFR cond expected, IFR or lower cond
possible at times especially late night and early morning.
Chance of showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Relatively light winds with a lack of significant swell leads
to sub-advisory conditions through Monday night.
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters through Tuesday
evening. Marginal SCA conditions become possible on the ocean early
Wednesday morning under an increasing S/SE flow as the pressure
gradient tightens with the approach of a weak frontal system from
the southwest. Gusts may approach 25kt on the ocean with wave
heights near 5-6 feet possible. Sub-SCA conditions are then expected
by late Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through through the end of next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/MW
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...BR/MW
HYDROLOGY...BR/MW