598
FXUS61 KOKX 111446
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1046 AM EDT Sun May 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure over the area through tonight will move offshore
on Monday. Unsettled weather will then return for much of the
rest of the week as a slow moving, broad low pressure system
approaches from the south on Tuesday and lingers through
Thursday. Another frontal system may move through next weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure at the surface continues to build from the
northwest today, settling over the area tonight. At the same
time, a ridging pattern aloft continues to push eastward toward
us through tonight.
Mainly clear skies expected. Did bump up both NW-N winds for
late morning into the afternoon especially across Long Island
and S CT which should be in the 10-15 mph range with some gusts
over 20 mph. Also bumped up temps per latest guidance, with
highs near 80 in urban NE NJ, in the upper 70s across the rest
of the NYC metro area, and in the lower/mid 70s elsewhere.
Under clear skies and light flow, radiational cooling should be
very efficient tonight. Lows will be in the lower/mid 50s, while
interior locations should drop into the lower/mid 40s. The Long
Island Pine Barrens may even drop into the upper 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The pattern shifts a little on Monday. High pressure pushes
offshore as an upper-level low approaches from the
southeastern US.
This leads to southerly flow returning, bringing moisture back up
with it. While Monday will start sunny, clouds will gradually
increase through the day and into the night as high pressure loses
its hold to the approaching low. Showers may begin, from the
southwest, just before daybreak Tuesday as the low nears with ample
moisture now in place.
Temperatures will be in the lower/mid 70s for many Monday
afternoon. Due to southerly flow returning, the ocean may lead
to highs limited in the mid/upper 60s for areas under more of a
marine influence such as the south shore and eastern Long
Island and coastal CT.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure is positioned to the east of the area on Tuesday
as a large upper level cut-off low over the Southern US begins
to approach the area from the south. The reintegration of this
mid- level energy into the mean flow will allow several waves of
energy to move through the area resulting in shower activity
for the better part of next week. The surface disturbance moves
east by Friday which may result in a day with mostly dry
conditions, however, with the upper trough overhead, widely
scattered shower still can`t be ruled out.
By the weekend, a digging trough with an embedded shortwave
moves into the Great Lakes region. This will allow a surface
frontal system to develop and bring a cold front through the
area sometime over the weekend resulting in additional showers
once again.
Given the uncertain nature of the cloud cover toward the end of
the week with the upper trough remaining generally overhead,
temperatures may move in either direction. Otherwise,
temperatures through the long term are generally around average
with highs each day in the upper 60s to low 70s Tuesday through
Thursday. Temperatures are expected to increase a bit on Friday
and into Saturday but this will ultimately depend on the
evolution of the upper trough and incoming frontal system.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR as high pressure gradually builds in through tonight.
NNW-N winds around 10kt today. Gusts up to around 20kt at some
terminals. Chance of late day sea breezes for some terminals. Winds
veer NE under 10kt early this evening, then E to SE overnight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts 16-20kt possible at KJFK and KLGA. Chance that
gusts at KEWR are only occasional.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: MVFR cigs possible especially from the NYC metros
west.
Tuesday night: Low stratus/fog with IFR cond possible especially
near the coast at KJFK/KISP/KHPN/KBDR/KGON, otherwise MVFR cond
expected. Chance of showers.
Wednesday and Thursday: MVFR cond expected, IFR or lower cond
possible at times especially late night and early morning.
Chance of showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Relatively light winds with a lack of significant swell leads to
sub-advisory conditions through Tue evening. Wave heights on
the ocean running only around 1 ft this morning so lowered them
across the board by a foot today, then gradually trended back
toward the previous forecast of 2-ft seas for tonight into Mon.
Marginal SCA conditions become possible on the ocean early Wed
morning under an increasing S-SE flow as the pressure gradient
tightens with the approach of a weak frontal system from the
southwest. Gusts may approach 25 kt on the ocean, with wave
heights 5-6 feet possible. Sub-SCA conditions are then expected
by late Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
There are no hydrologic concerns through through the end of
next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/BR/MW
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG/BR
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...JC/MW
MARINE...BG/BR/MW
HYDROLOGY...BR/MW