626
FXUS61 KOKX 111957
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
357 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build southeast over the area tonight, then
pass offshore Monday into Monday night. A broad area of low
pressure will then impact the area through the end of the week.
A cold frontal passage is possible over the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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High pressure centered near Lake Ontario will build SE toward
the area tonight. Gusty NW-N winds late this afternoon should
settle down this eve with loss of daytime heating/mixing and
also veer NE then E as the high builds closer. Ideal radiational
cooling conds under mostly clear skies and light winds should
allow temps to fall to the 50s in the NYC metro area into the
40s elsewhere.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As the high passes offshore, E winds to start should veer SE in
the morning and then S by afternoon. The onshore flow should
lead to cooler daytime temps than those of Sunday despite plenty
of sunshine but still above the warmest of the MOS guidance,
from the upper 60s and lower 70s across Long Island and southern
CT, to the mid 70s from NYC north/west.

High clouds will start to increase late day Mon into Mon night,
also also lower/thicken mainly across the NYC metro area and
the lower Hudson Valley late Mon night, with only slight chance
of a shower late for NYC and NE NJ. With the continued onshore
flow low temps should be in the 50s across the majority of the
CWA.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The models have shown decent consistency thru the extended, so
the NBM has generally been followed.

Chances for shwrs for the entire period, although it will not
rain the whole time. It is too far out to pinpoint exact
coverage and timing, but it does appear that there has been a
trend to a slower onset for Tue, particularly ern areas. This
seems reasonable with high pres parked offshore. Perhaps more
coverage on Wed as the upr low approaches the region. Theta-e
increases, and it is likely there will be some shrtwv energy
embedded in the flow.

It becomes more unstable on Thu with rising temps. H5 trof still
over the area should support initiation, so some shwrs and
tstms possible especially in the aftn/eve.

As the next upr low drops out of Canada on Fri, the flow will
become more wly aloft across the area, and temps begin to
surge towards 80, especially W of the Hudson. There could be
another round of shwrs and tstms with energy embedded in the
flow, but confidence is low this far out.

Another warm day on Sat before a cold frontal passage late in
the day or early Sun per the current progs. This would bring
additional chances for shwrs and tstms.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR as high pressure remains in control.

NNW-N winds around 10 kt with gusts up to around 20 kt at some
terminals. Still a chance of late day sea breezes for some
terminals. Winds veer NE under 10 kt early this evening, then
E-SE overnight. SE-S winds around 10 kt for Monday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional gusts 16-20kt possible for KLGA before 23Z. Chance
that gusts at KEWR and KJFK are only occasional. Chance of sea
breeze shifting winds SE at KJFK before 22Z and KEWR before 23Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday afternoon: VFR.

Tuesday: MVFR and showers possible, mainly NYC terminals and
west.

Tuesday night: Low stratus/fog with IFR cond possible especially
near the coast at KJFK/KISP/KHPN/KBDR/KGON, otherwise MVFR
cond expected. Chance of showers.

Wednesday and Thursday: MVFR cond expected, IFR or lower cond
possible at times. Showers likely. E-SE winds G20kt possible
on Wed.

Friday: Mainly VFR, chance of MVFR and showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Winds should remain blw SCA lvls on all waters through the
period. Ocean seas however should build aoa 5 ft early Wed thru
the day on Thu before subsiding again blw sca lvls for Fri and
Sat.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts expected.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/BG
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JMC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JMC/BG