076
FXUS61 KOKX 121844
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
244 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure continues will shift offshore today. A broad area
of low pressure will then impact the area through the end of
the week. A frontal system impacts the area for the end of the
week into the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Just some minor adjustments to reflect latest temperatures and
dew points. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.
High pressure overhead today will result in fairly clear skies and
dry conditions. As the center of the high moves offshore to the
east, a light return flow out of the south will allow low level
moisture to increase. THis southerly flow off the relatively cool
ocean will also prevent high temperatures today along the coast from
rising above the upper 60s to low 70s. Interior areas that aren`t
influences by the flow off of the ocean will see highs in the middle
to upper 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High clouds begin to move into the area tonight with the approach of
a broad surface low from the southwest. This weak, slow moving
surface low is being forced by a mid-level cut-off low that is
slowly becoming reintroduced to the mean flow. This will allow much
of the middle of the week to experience showery conditions.
Increasing clouds and moisture tonight will prevent temperatures
from falling too much with lows in the 50s to near 60 in the NYC
metro. Much of the first half of the night should be dry but the
chance of showers increases a bit for the western portion of the
area after 2-4AM. Showers should remain light in intensity. The
eastward progression of this band of scattered showers remains a bit
uncertain as the showers will be running into the drier airmass from
the high pressure still sitting offshore.
This general pattern continues during the day on Tuesday and Tuesday
night with the best chance for showers being the western portions of
the area with eastern areas possibly remaining mostly dry during
this timeframe. Overcast skies will prevent temperatures from rising
too much Tuesday with highs in the upper 60s to middle 70s for the
northeasternmost areas.
As the low continues to move toward the area late Tuesday night and
Wednesday, the chance of showers expands eastward with increasing
southerly flow increasing the low level moisture across the area.
Highs Wednesday will only be in the middle to upper 60s. By
Wednesday night, showers should overtake much of the area. There may
be enough elevated instability to result in some isolated
thunderstorms.
Rainfall totals over this timeframe should be anywhere from 0.25" to
0.75" with the highest amounts more likely in the western portion of
the CWA. No hydrologic or flooding concerns are expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Unsettled for the long term, though no day seems to be a complete
washout.
Weak surface low and upper level trough will affect the
forecast area on Thursday, pushing offshore Thursday night. This
will be followed by weak upper level ridging into Friday night as a
warm front approaches at the surface during the day. The warm front
lifts north late Friday into Friday night, leaving the area warm
sectored for Saturday. The associated cold front approaches and
moves through Saturday night, with a secondary cold front/surface
trough moving through Sunday.
It becomes more unstable on Thursday with rising temps and the upper
trough moving over the area. This should support initiation, so some
showers and thunderstorms possible especially in the afternoon and
evenings.
As the upper low associated with the frontal system impacting the
forecast area at the end of the week into the weekend slowly treks
east over southeastern Canada, the flow will become more westerly
aloft, and temperatures begin to surge towards 80 on Friday,
especially W of the Hudson. There could be another round of showers
and thunderstorms with energy embedded in the flow, but confidence
is low this far out.
Another warm day on Saturday with the area warm sectored. It should
be a few degrees warmer than Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front will drop south across New England and into the
area toward daybreak Tuesday. At the same time, a large area of
low pressure slowly approaches from the southwest.
This will be a mainly VFR forecast until Tuesday afternoon when
there will be a chance of showers for the NYC and Lower Hudson
Valley terminals. At this time, the forecast area looks to be
on the eastern edge of the rain shield. Plan to use a PROB30 to
address the chance of showers.
SE-S winds around 10 kt this afternoon will veer around to the
S/SW this evening at less than 10 kt. Winds will become light
and variable or light SE late tonight, then ESE at 7-10kt after
14Z Tuesday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low chance of MVFR in showers Tuesday, mainly in the afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday night through Thursday: Low stratus/fog with IFR
conditions possible. Chance of rain. E-SE winds G20kt possible
on Wed.
Friday and Saturday: Mainly VFR, chance of MVFR and showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters through Tuesday night.
The pressure gradient increases with a low pressure building into
the area from the southwest on Wednesday. This will result in gust
near 25 kt on the ocean as well as wave heights near 5-7 feet. SCA
conditions likely linger on the ocean through Thursday before
subsiding Thursday night. Thereafter, winds and waves should
remain below SCA criteria due to lack of any strong pressure
gradient across the waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/MW
NEAR TERM...BC/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JP/MW
HYDROLOGY...JP/MW