594
FXUS61 KOKX 131435
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1035 AM EDT Tue May 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure slowly approaches from the Mid-
Atlantic this afternoon into Wednesday and passes nearby during
Thursday. Another frontal system impacts the area for the end
of the week into next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast remains on track into the afternoon with only minor
adjustments to account for observations. High pressure continues
to hold through the early afternoon, especially further east.
Low levels continues to indicate drier air winning out through
the next several hours. Showers have tried to make their way
into the western portion of the area but despite seemingly
decent radar returns, much of this rain is falling out of a mid-
level deck and has struggled to reach the ground. Only a few
stations have reported light showers / sprinkles.
High pressure remains to the east of the area this afternoon
with a broad low pressure system approaching from the southwest
through the day. This low will slowly move over the area through
the middle of the week.
Clouds are continuing to gradually build into the area from the
southwest along with a broken shield of light rain showers.
These rain showers should gradually approach NE NJ and the NYC,
but models have largely backed off on the intensity and
eastward progression as the rain pushes into the high pressure
positioned off to the east. As a result, much of the CWA is
expected to be dry for much of the day, perhaps with the
exception of NE NJ and the NYC metro. High temperatures today
will be in the upper 60s to the middle 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The low continues to make its slow progression into the area
tonight with additional showers moving in from the southwest. As
the BL saturates and the high pressure to the east gives way a
bit, showers should be able to make some eastward movement by
tonight with much of the area seeing at least some light rain,
though it may not be until after midnight or toward daybreak for
central and eastern areas.
By Wednesday, the southeasterly flow increases as the low comes
closer to the area. As the upper trough works its way overhead,
the development of some subtle elevated instability may allow
for the development of more convective-type showers and some
embedded thunderstorms. This may allow for briefly moderate to
heavier rain, though it`s expected to be embedded in a more
widespread light rain. Highs Wednesday will be in the middle
60s, given the ongoing precipitation.
On and off showers with perhaps some thunderstorms continue
Wednesday night and into early Thursday as the low continues to
move overhead. By Thursday, much of the precipitation should
move northeast of the area but with the upper trough overhead,
additional scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms will be
possible through the afternoon. The area should begin to dry out
a bit by Thursday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A warm front associated with a cutoff low over the western Great
Lakes region lifts north Friday into Friday night with with ridging
aloft mitigating shower chances. A cold front follows for Saturday
into Saturday night with additional showers and maybe a thunderstorm.
Uncertainty then increases for Sunday and Monday, stemming from
global model disagreement on the placement of the cut off/upper low.
There`s general agreement that it remains to our north, but still
cannot rule out a diurnally-driven shower both days as a surface
trough and cyclonic flow aloft are potentially in the area.
Above normal temperatures are expected for Friday and especially
Saturday with the area warm sectored. Temperatures will be in the
70s to around 80 away from the coast, with low to middle 70s along
the coast. After Saturday, the area will be in a cooling trend, with
slightly cooler readings for Sunday compared to Saturday, and
temperatures close to normal for Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak cold front moves through the forecast area into the
afternoon, stalling near the metro terminals. At the same time,
a weak area of low pressure approaches from the south.
VFR conditions expected through much of the day today. MVFR chances
increase from west to east thereafter for the rest of the TAF
period.
Some light rain is possible this morning for NYC and Lower Hudson
Valley terminals. Chances for rain increase for NYC and Lower Hudson
Valley terminals this afternoon into start of this evening with MVFR
chances also increasing, though MVFR conditions are possible with
any showers in the afternoon. Conditions deteriorate to IFR by late
tonight for these areas. To the east, expecting mainly dry
conditions and VFR conditions to prevail through much of this
afternoon, with MVFR or lower expected by overnight tonight.
There is a low to medium chance of LIFR conditions around 06Z
and thereafter.
Winds through the TAF period are around 10 kts or less. Wind
direction generally S to SE shifting to the SE early this
morning, then E to ESE this afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
MVFR and IFR timing could be a few hours off from TAF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday night through Wednesday night: Low stratus/fog with IFR
conditions at times. Periods of rain. Slight chance of thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. E-SE winds G20kt possible
on Wednesday afternoon into early evening.
Thursday: MVFR possible with a chance of showers.
Friday and Saturday: Mainly VFR, chance of MVFR and showers.
Slight chance of thunderstorms afternoon into early evening.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters through tonight.
Onshore flow will help build seas to 5-6 ft on the ocean waters
during Wednesday along with gusts around 25 kt. Winds weaken
Wednesday night, however a residual swell should keep seas at
advisory levels through the night and into a portion of
Thursday. Sub-advisory conditions then follow for Thursday night
through Sunday with winds remaining at around 10kt or less.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall through Wednesday night is expected to average around
a half of an inch across the area, but locally upwards of an
inch is possible. No hydrologic impacts are expected with this
event, and no impacts are expected thereafter through Monday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MW
NEAR TERM...JE/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...BC/JP
MARINE...JP/MW
HYDROLOGY...JP/MW