169
FXUS61 KOKX 141501
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1101 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
The surface ridge weakens today as a broad area of low pressure
approaches from the southwest. The low weakens on Thursday, with
another frontal system will move across from Friday into Saturday.
High pressure will gradually return early next week as low pressure
lingers just east of New England.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Stream of showers gradually working north and east through the
region late this morning, and should push into much of eastern
Long Island and southern CT thru early afternoon. Can`t rule out
a few embedded thunderstorms later today, mainly south and west
of NYC, but activity should remain rather tame, and not
anticipating any severe or hydro issues.
The upper level low that as been gradually approaching the area
is finally becoming less defined over the Ohio Valley on
satellite imagery and is progged to continue to open up. At the
surface, a ridge extending from offshore high pressure is
holding its ground over far eastern portions of our area. This
ridge will continue to weaken today as broad surface low
pressure slowly approaches from the southwest. These features
will result in a prolonged easterly flow, with wet and cloudy
conditions.
These heavier showers look to be right on the nose of a LLJ and
associated with the strongest WAA. This batch should pivot up
to our area as the LLJ shifts north towards us. Model soundings
show very little elevated CAPE, so a rumble of thunder can not
be ruled out with this activity starting late morning. Highest
PoPs will be into the early afternoon, but chances of
showers/isolated thunder continue all day. Overnight, the LLJ
shifts as well as the higher instability, so the threat then
will be greater for eastern LI and CT.
NBM was followed closely for temperatures, with 60s for highs
and 50s for lows. NBM was also followed for Td given the wetter
pattern.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough axis moves through on Thursday and could
spark some isolated to scattered pop-up convection although lift
looks weak. Much of the mid and upper level profile looks
similar to today(Wednesday), but with a warmer and more moist
surface, MLCAPE values should reach 500-1000 J/kg. If anything
does form, organized convection is expected as shear is very
weak.
As previously mentioned, NBM was also followed for T and Td
during the Short Term period. Lows will be similar to
tonight(Wednesday night) and highs will be a bit warmer, low
70s. One other thing to note is the great model agreement of a
very weak pressure gradient for Thursday night. Given this and
multiple days of onshore flow, expecting more fog.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
No significant changes to the long term on this update and
stuck close to the NBM.
Key Points:
* An unsettled weather regime likely continues through the
upcoming weekend, potentially next Monday.
* It will not be a washout Friday and Saturday despite chances
for showers (possibly a thunderstorm each afternoon and
evening).
* Diurnally driven isolated to scattered showers remain
possible Sunday and Monday afternoon.
* Temperatures will mainly run above normal through early next
week.
A blocky synoptic pattern will continue through early next week.
Another upper low and associated trough over the Northern Plains
will then gradually slide eastward towards the Great Lakes
Friday into Saturday and then move across New England late this
weekend. Surface low pressure over the Northern Plains on Friday
will send a warm front across the area. Shortwave energy
associated with the front is weak and dampened out by ridging
over the eastern seaboard. Have largely capped PoPs off at
chance with potential of showers mainly Friday afternoon and
evening. Some CAPE may be available for a slight chance of
thunder. Low pressure weakens as it moves towards the region
this weekend due to the system becoming vertically stacked. The
associated cold front will likely move across the region late
Saturday into Saturday night. This will bring additional chances
for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms as probabilities
for SBCAPE to exceed 500 J/kg are higher in the NBM. The highest
probabilities for precip and thunder currently exist north and
west of the NYC metro.
The lingering upper low and surface system should push offshore
Sunday into early next week. Cyclonic flow and potential of a
lingering cold pool aloft may support diurnally driven isolated to
scattered showers Sunday and Monday afternoons. The upper low and
trough may linger offshore next Tuesday with ridging building just
to our west. Given a consensus of building heights aloft, have kept
the forecast dry for next Tuesday and went slightly lower than the
NBM PoPs.
Temperatures will be in the upper 70s to around 80 away from the
immediate coast, with low to middle 70s along the coast, Friday and
Saturday. Westerly flow on Sunday should allow the entire area to
reach the middle and upper 70s. Temperatures trend a bit cooler
early next week, but still may remain above normal, especially on
Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure remains near the area terminals through the TAF
period.
Rain along with MVFR to IFR conditions can be expected at all
the area terminals. There may be intermittent improvement to VFR
for a few hours, especially this morning.
Winds will be from the E-ESE around 15kt with some gusts 20-25kt
at KLGA/KJFK/KISP/KBDR, then diminish this evening. As the
winds diminish, LIFR conditions are likely to develop again
tonight.
There is the slight chance of a tstm mainly during the afternoon
hours today. Coverage still too vague to mention in TAF.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely for changing flight categories.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday: IFR/LIFR in the morning, then MVFR in the afternoon
with chance of showers and possibly a tstm.
Thursday night: Low stratus/fog with IFR/LIFR cond.
Friday: IFR/LIFR in the morning, then chance of MVFR in the
afternoon/evening with slight chance of tstms.
Saturday: Chance of MVFR and showers. Slight chance of tstms.
Sunday...Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the ocean waters
and has been expanded to include the NY Harbor. The SCA for the
NY Harbor and the ocean waters from Sandy Hook to Moriches Inlet
goes through Thursday. The ocean waters from Moriches Inlet to
Montauk Point starts a few hours later due to winds ramping up a
bit slower. 5 to 6 ft waves should also be expected on the
ocean waters.
Conditions will be below SCA levels by Thursday night, and remain so
into the upcoming weekend with a relatively weak pressure gradient
over the waters.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Although some isolated downpours are possible later today, there are
no hydrologic concerns at this time. Total rainfall amounts will
likely be between 0.50 and 1.00 inches for northeast NJ, NYC, the
Lower Hudson Valley and western LI and CT. Farther east, rainfall
amounts will be closer to 0.25 to 0.50 inches.
There are also no hydrologic concerns Thursday night through early
next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ338.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JT
NEAR TERM...DR/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...DS/JT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DS/JT
HYDROLOGY...DS/JT