251
FXUS61 KOKX 171935
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
335 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front moves across the area this evening. Low pressure
slowly moves across New England on Sunday sending a series of
surface troughs across the area. The low slowly exits the New
England coast on Monday as high pressure gradually builds in
from the northwest through Tuesday. Another frontal system
impacts the area Wednesday into Thursday, then exits northeast
into Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Vertically stacked low pressure over the Great Lakes region
will send a cold front across the area this evening. Middle
level drying has taken place this afternoon behind a departing
surface trough and weakening convective shortwave aloft.
Instability has been increasing, but there is no organized
trigger to develop new convection until the actual cold front
enters the area this evening. Most of the area will stay dry for
the rest of the afternoon with an isolated to scattered shower
or thunderstorm possible well NW of the NYC metro. A few showers
or thunderstorms are possible as the cold front crosses the
area this evening. The higher probabilities for showers/storms
continue to be across the Lower Hudson Valley and potentially
interior SW CT. Locations closer to the coast may largely stay
dry with just an isolated shower/storm possible.
SPC still has a marginal risk in place for the entire CWA.
If a severe thunderstorm occurs it will be isolated and should
be north and west of the NYC metro. The main threat is from
damaging wind gusts. Loss of daytime heating after sunset should
limit the already low risk for a severe storm.
The cold front will continue moving offshore through midnight.
This which will bring an end to the shower/storm potential. The
flow behind the front will become W allowing drier air to work
into the area. The drier air will prevent low cloud and fog
development and lead to a mostly clear overnight once any
lingering mid and high clouds depart overnight. Lows look to
fall into the lower to middle 50s inland and the upper 50s to
around 60 close to the coast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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The low pressure system will slowly move across New England on
Sunday. High pressure will be located well to our west with the
area under the influence of cyclonic flow at the surface and
aloft. Sunday should start out mostly sunny before becoming
mostly cloudy into the afternoon. The lingering cold pocket
aloft may be enough to generate a few brief showers across the
interior in the afternoon and evening. The pressure gradient
will steepen through the afternoon as thew low begins pushing
towards the Canadian Maritimes. This will set the stage for
gusty W winds, 25 to 30 mph, especially in the afternoon and
early evening. High temperatures will be close to seasonable
levels in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
The low will only slowly move east Sunday night and may become
nearly stationary near the Maritimes Monday and Monday night.
High pressure slowly builds towards the region during this time
frame. The region will lie between the two systems which will
allow breezy W-NW winds to continue through Monday. Gusts on
Monday are likely to be similar to those on Sunday and generally
25-30 mph. Temperatures will also be similar to those observed
on Sunday. The atmosphere continues to dry out Sunday night
through Monday with the anticipation of skies becoming mostly
clear to start next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Key Message:
* A frontal system may will bring rainfall Wednesday & Thursday,
possibly into Friday.
High pressure on Tuesday will gradually break down into Tuesday
night ahead of an approaching frontal system. Overall, it should be
a pleasant day with highs in the mid-60s to low-70s. Mostly sunny to
start with increasing clouds in the afternoon and evening. Overcast
skies will lead to less efficient radiational cooling Tuesday night
with lows in the mid-50s to upper-40s.
Most 12Z guidance has honed in on a time frame for impacts from a
frontal system, but track still varies somewhat. A low over KY/OH
late Tuesday will approach the area Tuesday night and pass near or
to the south of the area Wednesday into Thursday, pushing more north
and/or east of the area on Friday. This will bring a period of wet
weather. Given elevated PWATs and ample lift, there is a chance for
a period of moderate rainfall. With some hints at marginal
instability, a few isolated thunderstorms may occur on Wednesday.
Confidence in showers is higher by midday Wednesday into Thursday
afternoon, but confidence is lower Thursday night and especially
Friday as some models have the low lingering in the area a little
longer, while others bring the low to a quick exit.
Overall, temperatures will be near or slightly below normal levels
Tuesday through Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A cold front moves across the region this evening.
VFR. There remains a low chance of isolated SHRA or TSRA
from 21- 02Z, with the best chance for impact being at KSWF.
PROB30s carried through the early evening for the low chance of
TSRA.
MVFR cigs possible tomorrow for northern terminals though mainly
VFR categories are expected for most terminals. Isolated SHRA
can`t be ruled out, but shouldn`t be impactful.
S/SW winds around 10-15kt through the afternoon with some
gusts upwards of 23kt possible. A cold frontal passage late this
evening will allow winds to shift to the W/NW, and may become
gusty late tonight. Gusts are more likely during the day Sunday
with upwards of 30kt gusts possible.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low thunderstorm chances for late afternoon and into the
evening.
.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday PM: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers inland with
MVFR possible. W winds G20-30kt.
Monday - Tuesday: VFR. Monday NW winds G20-25kt day into evening.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower with showers likely, especially in the
afternoon, a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. E
wind gusts 15-20kt.
Thursday: MVFR or lower possible in showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Conditions on the waters through tonight will remain below SCA
levels. An increasing pressure gradient on Sunday will promote
gusty W flow and gusts 25-30 kt. Winds will likely become NW
Sunday night and continue to gust 25-30 kt. Have therefore
extended the SCA on Sunday through Sunday night. The gusty winds
should continue on Monday with a further extension of the SCA
probable. Winds weaken Monday evening bringing gusts below 25
kt. Ocean seas build to marginal SCA levels Sunday and Sunday
night and then slowly subside Monday and Monday night.
Winds and seas remain below advisory levels on all the forecast
waters Tuesday into early Wednesday.
With the approach of a frontal system Wednesday, easterly flow
will be increasing. By late day, SCA conditions may develop on
the ocean waters. With the increased and persistent east flow
into Thursday, winds and seas on the ocean waters will likely be
at SCA levels. As low pressure tracks northeast of the area
Thursday night a northerly flow develops and winds diminish.
However, ocean seas are likely to remain elevated into Thursday
night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...BR/DS
HYDROLOGY...BR/DS