369
FXUS61 KOKX 180306
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1106 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front moves east of the area overnight. Low pressure
slowly moves across New England on Sunday sending a series of
surface troughs across the area. The low slowly exits the New
England coast on Monday as high pressure gradually builds in
from the northwest through Tuesday. Another frontal system
impacts the area Wednesday into Thursday, then exits northeast
into Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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A cold front is now exiting far eastern portions of the region.
Any instability is getting shunted east with the front pushing
through.

The cold front will continue to move offshore overnight. This
which will bring an end any shower activity and usher in much
drier air on a W to WNW flow. The drier air will prevent low
cloud and fog development and lead to a partly cloudy to mostly
clear overnight once any lingering mid and high clouds depart.
Lows look to fall into the lower to middle 50s inland and the
upper 50s to around 60 close to the coast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The low pressure system will slowly move across New England on
Sunday. High pressure will be located well to our west with the
area under the influence of cyclonic flow at the surface and
aloft. Sunday should start out mostly sunny before becoming
mostly cloudy into the afternoon. The lingering cold pocket
aloft may be enough to generate a few brief showers across the
interior in the afternoon and evening. The pressure gradient
will steepen through the afternoon as thew low begins pushing
towards the Canadian Maritimes. This will set the stage for
gusty W winds, 25 to 30 mph, especially in the afternoon and
early evening. High temperatures will be close to seasonable
levels in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

The low will only slowly move east Sunday night and may become
nearly stationary near the Maritimes Monday and Monday night.
High pressure slowly builds towards the region during this time
frame. The region will lie between the two systems which will
allow breezy W-NW winds to continue through Monday. Gusts on
Monday are likely to be similar to those on Sunday and generally
25-30 mph. Temperatures will also be similar to those observed
on Sunday. The atmosphere continues to dry out Sunday night
through Monday with the anticipation of skies becoming mostly
clear to start next week.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message:

 * A frontal system may will bring rainfall Wednesday & Thursday,
   possibly into Friday.

High pressure on Tuesday will gradually break down into Tuesday
night ahead of an approaching frontal system. Overall, it should be
a pleasant day with highs in the mid-60s to low-70s. Mostly sunny to
start with increasing clouds in the afternoon and evening. Overcast
skies will lead to less efficient radiational cooling Tuesday night
with lows in the mid-50s to upper-40s.

Most 12Z guidance has honed in on a time frame for impacts from a
frontal system, but track still varies somewhat. A low over KY/OH
late Tuesday will approach the area Tuesday night and pass near or
to the south of the area Wednesday into Thursday, pushing more north
and/or east of the area on Friday. This will bring a period of wet
weather. Given elevated PWATs and ample lift, there is a chance for
a period of moderate rainfall. With some hints at marginal
instability, a few isolated thunderstorms may occur on Wednesday.
Confidence in showers is higher by midday Wednesday into Thursday
afternoon, but confidence is lower Thursday night and especially
Friday as some models have the low lingering in the area a little
longer, while others bring the low to a quick exit.

Overall, temperatures will be near or slightly below normal levels
Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A cold front gets east of the region overnight.

VFR tonight, with mainly VFR and some pockets of MVFR cigs possible
Sunday for northern terminals. VFR is expected to prevail for most
terminals on Sunday. Isolated SHRA can`t be ruled out, but shouldn`t
be impactful and is not included in TAFs at this time.

With the cold frontal passage the winds have shifted to the W/NW,
with gusts from time to time before becoming more frequent towards
12-13z Sunday. Gusts lock in during the day Sunday with upwards of
30kt gusts possible, especially for Sunday afternoon and evening.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low chance of brief MVFR ceilings Sunday.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday night: Slight chance of showers inland for the early evening
with MVFR possible, otherwise mainly VFR. W winds G20-30kt.

Monday - Tuesday: VFR. Monday NW winds G20-25kt into the evening.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower with showers likely, especially in the
afternoon, a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. E wind
gusts 15-20kt.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible in showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Other than brief gusts behind the cold front, conditions on the
waters should remain below SCA levels. An increasing pressure
gradient on Sunday will promote gusty W flow and gusts 25-30 kt.
Winds will likely become NW Sunday night and continue to gust
25-30 kt. Have therefore extended the SCA on Sunday through
Sunday night. The gusty winds should continue on Monday with a
further extension of the SCA probable. Winds weaken Monday
evening bringing gusts below 25 kt. Ocean seas build to marginal
SCA levels Sunday and Sunday night and then slowly subside
Monday and Monday night.

Winds and seas remain below advisory levels on all the forecast
waters Tuesday into early Wednesday.

With the approach of a frontal system Wednesday, easterly flow
will be increasing. By late day, SCA conditions may develop on
the ocean waters. With the increased and persistent east flow
into Thursday, winds and seas on the ocean waters will likely be
at SCA levels. As low pressure tracks northeast of the area
Thursday night a northerly flow develops and winds diminish.
However, ocean seas are likely to remain elevated into Thursday
night.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BR/DS
NEAR TERM...JE/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BR/DS
HYDROLOGY...BR/DS