okx-afd on 2025-05-19

736
FXUS61 KOKX 191744
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
144 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure builds into the area tonight and remains in place
through Tuesday. Tuesday night, the high starts to slide east.
Deepening low pressure passes south of the area Wednesday into
Thursday. The low then moves northeast and into the Canadian
Maritimes Thursday night through Saturday. Weak high pressure
then builds in Saturday night through Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --Winds remain gusty for the remainder of the afternoon/evening as a
surface trough moves across the area. High pressure builds into the
region this evening, and remains nearby overnight. Expect clear
skies this evening and overnight. Any gusty winds will continue to
diminish this evening. Winds should remain just high enough to limit
the effects of radiational cooling across much of the forecast area.
The only exception may be well north and west of NYC where winds
become light and variable late.

Temperatures are expected to range from the lower 40s to the lower
50s.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --Winds continue to diminish Tuesday with weak high pressure over the
area. Expect any northerly winds to become light and variable
by late morning or early afternoon. It should be a mostly sunny
day, however a weak shortwave that passes northeast of the area
may bring some increased cloudiness to the eastern portions of
the CWA.

The weak high over the area slides east late Tuesday into Tuesday
night. This will allow a weather system over the middle portion of
the country to approach the area. Expect an increase in cloud cover
Tuesday night. It should remain dry Tuesday night, however some
light rain will be possible towards daybreak across the western edge
of the area.

High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the middle and upper 60s, to
lower 70s. Tuesday night lows fall into the upper 40s and lower to
middle 50s.-- End Changed Discussion --

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Global models in general agreement regarding the h5 pattern through
the long term. A ridge over us on Wednesday flattens as a closed low
slowly moves from the northern Great Lakes Region eastward through
the Northeast through this weekend, then into the Canadian Maritimes
on Monday. This will bring us an extended period of rain threat with
the greatest chances occurring Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
evening.

At the surface, a double-barreled low moves closer to us from the
south and west on Wednesday. The circulation center emerging off the
Mid-Atlantic Coast during Wednesday night strengthens and eventually
passes not too far offshore during Thursday. Rain slowly overspreads
the forecast area from SW to NE across the area through the day
Wednesday. Rainfall then looks to be more on the moderate side in
terms of intensity Weds night into Thurs morning as a low level jet
enhances lift, coinciding with time that the deepest moisture is
shifting through as indicated by forecast PWATs. See the hydrology
section below for potential impacts with this system. Rain chances
then drop off during Thursday night as the low continues on its NE
path towards Nova Scotia. A cyclonic flow aloft with occasional
shortwaves passing through keeps the threat of a shower on Friday,
which afterwards may be more diurnally-driven for both days this
weekend as well as on Monday.

NBM looked reasonable for temperatures through the long term. Cooler
than normal Weds-Friday, then warming to near normal this weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Low pres remains over the maritimes tngt. A weak high pres ridge
extends swd into the area late Tue.

VFR thru the TAF period.

NW winds 20-30kt thru this eve, then speeds decrease aft 4-6Z, and
veer gradually thru 12Z. Winds mainly aob 12kt on Tue, with N
direction veering to the E/SE aft 18Z. There is some uncertainty wrt
wind direction aft 18Z Tue, as some areas could go full sea breeze
direction due to the weakening flow.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments thru 21Z expected. Sea breeze flow could
develop aft 18Z Tue.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Rest of Tuesday: VFR with lessening winds in the aftn. MVFR possible
aft 00Z Wed.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower with rain by late in the day. E wind gusts
up to 30kt.

Thursday: MVFR or lower with rain, especially in the mrng. E winds
backing to the N thru the day with gusts up to 30kt.

Friday: MVFR or lower with winds becoming light W.

Saturday: MVFR possible with NW flow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until midnight
tonight for all waters as 25 kt gusts may linger. Expect wind gusts
25 to 30 kt gusts. Winds are expected to diminish below 25kt by
midnight, then we are expecting sub-SCA conditions through through
at least Tuesday night.

SCA conditions on most, if not all waters Wednesday through Thursday
as low pressure passes offshore with an east to northeast flow
increasing to 15-25kt with around 30kt gusts. Could be some gale
force gusts on the ocean as well during late Weds night into Thurs
morning, but not enough confidence at this time for a Gale Watch for
a late 4th into 5th period event. Seas probably remain elevated with
a residual swell for a period thereafter, so advisory conditions
probably continue into Friday on the ocean. Sub-advisory conditions
then follow for Saturday.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --Rainfall from Wednesday through Thursday night is anticipated to be
in the range of mostly a half inch to 1.5 inches. The rainfall will
probably be at its heaviest during Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Impacts will most likely be limited to minor urban/poor
drainage flooding and perhaps small stream flooding as well. The
flash flood threat remains low when considering current flash-flood
guidance values plus a lack of convection to enhance rainfall in
only a modest PWAT airmass. NBM could be underestimating rainfall
amounts as it did with last week`s system, so can`t completely rule
out isolated flash flooding. WPC continues with a marginal risk of
flash flooding during this period.-- End Changed Discussion --

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A strengthening and persistent E/NE flow Wednesday through Thursday
could bring widespread minor coastal flooding to the area. The two
high tide cycles of concern as of now are the Wednesday
night/Thursday morning cycle and the Thursday afternoon cycle. There
is a bit higher confidence with the first cycle, as winds for the
second cycle may be northerly enough to give some coastal areas
a more offshore flow.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...