996
FXUS61 KOKX 202012
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
412 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
As high pressure noses down from the north, a back door cold
front will move through from the east tonight. An expansive low
pressure system will then approach from the west on Wednesday,
with a secondary low developing off the southern Mid Atlantic
coast Wednesday night. This second low will then pass south and
east of Long Island into New England Thursday into Thursday
night. The low will remain over the Northeast Friday and
Saturday before slowly moving toward the Canadian Maritimes on
Sunday. High pressure may return early next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Back door front moving across Rhode Island with winds at most
ASOS sites having shifted NE, with a SE wind at KBID. Associated
cloud cover already across most of Long Island and S CT should
expand westward tonight, while clods with the low to the west
also gradually move eastward. Precip with the low to the west
unlikely to make it into the area tonight, but a few showers are
possible with the back door front as it moves westward.

Low temps tonight will range from the lower 50s in the NYC metro
area and across most of Long Island and coastal SW CT, to 45-50
elsewhere.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Rain may be slow to enter the area on Wed especially out east with
upper level ridging only starting to move east, but should make
it into the western half of the CWA by afternoon and then
eastern sections by late afternoon or evening as the ridge moves
E and a lead mid level shortwave trough approaches.

Periods of rain expected throughout from Wed night into Thu,
with the heavier QPF mainly from late Wed night into Thu
morning as an easterly LLJ transports Atlantic moisture into the
area ahead of the approaching coastal low, and as a stronger
mid level shortwave trough approaches from the west. As the low
pulls east Thu night precip should become light and more
intermittent/showery.

High temps both Wed/Thu should remain in the 50s. Lows Wed night
will be 45-50 inland and in the lower 50s along the coast, and
in the 40s throughout Thu night with some CAA on N flow on the
back side of the low as it passes to the east and heads up
toward the New England coast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Key Points:

*Unsettled conditions will continue Friday with cool temperatures
and scattered showers possible.

*Temperatures start to trend warmer Saturday and especially Sunday,
but will remain below normal for this time of year. A shower is
possible on Saturday.

*Mainly dry conditions are currently expected on Memorial Day with
temperatures slightly below normal in the upper 60s and low 70s.

Anomalous upper low and associated trough will slowly move across
the area Friday through Saturday. The upper low slowly shifts
towards the Canadian Maritimes Sunday and pushes further east next
Monday.

The proximity of the upper low and associated surface low Friday
will bring a continuation of mostly cloudy and cool conditions.
The cold pocket aloft and any surface heating should lead to the
development of scattered showers. This potential may continue into
Friday night as the upper trough axis starts to slide east of the
area. Cyclonic flow will continue aloft on Saturday with an isolated
shower possible. Skies will likely remain partly sunny to mostly
cloudy due to the lingering cold pocket aloft. Highs on Friday will
only reach the upper 50s and low 60s. Highs on Saturday will start
to warm a bit, but still remain below normal in the lower to middle
60s.

Improving conditions continue on Sunday with low pressure slowly
pushing into the Canadian Maritimes. Cyclonic flow lingers aloft,
but should see less cloud cover versus Saturday allowing
temperatures to push into the upper 60s and potentially low 70s in
the usual warmer locations. Some guidance is hinting at some energy
rotating around the low to our west, but think the atmosphere will
be dry enough to suppress any shower development.

The evolution of the large scale pattern is much less certain
heading into next Tuesday, but there are hints of another trough
developing over the eastern US. Followed the latest model consensus
(NBM) which is currently keeping conditions mainly dry on Memorial
day as high pressure returns. The next chance of showers may occur
on Tuesday, but this will be dependent on the potential evolution of
another upper trough. Highs will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s,
slightly below normal for the last week of May.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak hi pres builds across the area tngt. Low pres slowly
approaches on Wed.

VFR thru this eve, then MVFR develops as clouds move in from the
ocean. Light rain develops Wed mainly aft 12Z, becoming more
widespread and heavier aft 17Z. VIS attm mainly MVFR, with CIGS
MVFR with ocnl IFR.

Light N winds late today become VRB/NE this eve, then gradually
veer NE/E by 12Z Wed. Winds remain steady around 100 true on
Wed. Speeds increase late tngt, but especially during the day on
Wed.

  ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Wind direction uncertain thru 02Z with some local sea breeze
effects likely in light flow. A TEMPO sea breeze has been
included for JFK.

Timing of the rain onset and MVFR may need to be adjusted. Did
speed up the MVFR tngt slightly with the 18Z TAFs.

Periods of IFR possible on Wed due to CIGS dropping blw 1000 ft.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Rest of Wednesday: MVFR or lower with periods of rain. E wind
gusts up to 20kt, increasing to up to 30kt at night.

Thursday: MVFR or lower with rain. E winds backing to the NE
late in the day with gusts up to 30kt. Winds diminishing at
night and becoming N.

Friday: MVFR or lower with a chance of showers. Light/VRB winds
becoming W.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR in showers. NW flow gusting over 20 kt.

Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Gale watch issued for the ocean E of Fire Island Inlet for late
Wed night into Thu morning. As low pressure passes to the south
and then east during this time, E winds should ramp up, with
gusts to 35-40 kt possible during this time. On the remaining
waters, SCA also issued, beginning 11 AM Wed for the ocean W of
Fire Island Inlet, and for Wed night into Thu for all but
western Long Island Sound, with gusts 25-30 kt. Seas build to
6-10 ft on the ocean during this time and also 4-6 ft on
easternmost Long Island Sound.

By Thu evening winds back northerly and diminish, but seas will
still be as high as 6-8 ft on the ocean and 5 ft on the ernmost
Sound, and should gradually diminish to 4-6 ft and 3-4 ft
respectively.

SCA conditions due to lingering 5 ft ocean seas will likely be
ongoing on Friday. Seas should subside below 5 ft Friday night.
There is a chance wind gusts could approach 25 kt on Saturday.
Otherwise, conditions will remain below SCA levels Saturday and
Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
Rainfall from Wed into Thu night will range from 1-1.25 inches
for most areas, with higher amts of 1.50-1.75 inches across ern
Long Island and SE CT. Rainfall will be light to moderate, with
rates not expected to exceed 1/2 inch per hour. At worst only
nuisance impacts expected mainly from late Wed night into Thu
morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
A strengthening/persistent E-NE flow Wednesday through Thursday
may result in minor coastal flooding mid to late week. Water
levels should remain below minor coastal flood benchmarks during
times of high tide Wed into Thu morning, but a round of more
widespread minor flooding is possible with the high tide late
Thu afternoon into Thu evening, with tidal departures mostly 1.5
to 2.0 ft and locally as high as 2.0 to 2.5 ft out east. These
departures are actually lower than in some previous forecasts,
as it appears winds may start to back N and diminish leading
into this high tide cycle.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight Wednesday night to 6 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ331-332-340.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 6 AM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ338.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight Wednesday night to noon EDT
     Thursday for ANZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to midnight EDT
     Wednesday night for ANZ350-353.
     Gale Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning
     for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to noon EDT Thursday
     for ANZ355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/DS
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...BG/DS
HYDROLOGY...BG/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG