okx-afd on 2025-05-22

659
FXUS61 KOKX 222002
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
402 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --Low pressure to the east tonight lifts north into New England for
Friday. Low pressure then over the Canadian Maritimes will
slowly weaken Saturday night into Sunday while high pressure
remains to the west. The high will build across on Monday, then
slide east on Tuesday as weak low pressure begins to approach
from the Tennessee Valley. The low will pass south on Wednesday,
followed by a weak low pressure trough approaching from the
west on Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Low pressure center is expected to pass about 100 miles to the east
of Montauk late day/early this evening and head north towards the
Gulf of Maine overnight. Rain/showers become less likely through the
night as the storm shifts away, but the threat remains all night
with a cyclonic flow aloft and weak shortwave lift passing nearby.
Northerly winds diminish through the night with lows in the 40s, but
still a few degrees above record lows for May 23rd. See the climate
section below for more details.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Cyclonic flow aloft remains over the region during the short term
period as an h5 low meanders over New England. For Friday, still a
good amount of cloud cover with plenty of moisture below 700mb.
Thinking is that the day begins as cloudy with partial sunshine
developing in the afternoon. The daytime heating combined with the
cold pool aloft and some shortwave lift could trigger scattered
showers mainly in the afternoon, but likely with not enough
instability for a thunderstorm. High temperatures below normal by 5-
10 degrees, ranging from the upper 50s well inland to the low-mid
60s for coastal locations.

Some improvement for Saturday is anticipated with fewer clouds
and slightly warmer temperatures. It likely remains dry for the
entire area, but still cannot rule out an isolated shower NW of
the city during the afternoon as shortwave approaches.-- End Changed Discussion --

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Sat night and Sunday will feature partly cloudy skies with below
normal temps as cyclonic flow continues around the slowly weakening
Maritimes low. Fcst for now is dry, but with the approach of an
upper level jet streak and mid level shortwave from the NW can`t
entirely rule out some sprinkles or showers especially from NYC
north/west. Sunday night/Mon look dry and milder, with temps near
normal as high pressure builds form the west.

A weak low passing to the south should bring a chance of light rain
mainly to the NYC metro area west for Tue night, and to most of the
area on Wed, with temps once again below normal. Thu should see
temps returning to normal, but with chances for showers mainly from
NYC metro north/west as another trough approaches from the west.-- End Changed Discussion --

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low end MVFR and IFR cigs continue across the terminals this
afternoon, along with period of rain, Gusts have been slow to
develop but are increasing east of NYC. Gusts will be from the
ENE 15G20-25kts. Conditions fall to IFR tonight, with some
terminals possibly falling below IFR if any fog develops. There
is also a low end chance that cigs remain MVFR.

Any IFR or lower cigs start to improve late morning/early
afternoon on Friday. VFR will be possible Friday afternoon.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely mainly for changes in flight categories.
Gusts may be more occasional than frequent.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday afternoon: Chance of showers with MVFR conditions at
times. N winds 10-15G20kt E of the NYC metros Thu evening.

Saturday and Sunday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G15-18kt.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, low end chance of MVFR in any showers/rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --Gales end by this evening over the eastern waters. A SCA through at
least midnight will probably be needed over eastern LI Sound and the
eastern Bays. Meanwhile, a SCA will be needed on the ocean waters
tonight into a part of Friday as seas remain elevated from a
residual swell. Seas probably hover around 4ft thereafter through
Saturday, but could be up to 5ft at times. There will probably be a
long enough period of sub-5ft seas during this time frame such that
the SCA wouldn`t need to be extended beyond 16-18z Friday.

Quiet from Sat night through Tue night as winds and seas subside.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --Additional rainfall through tonight should not cause any
significant hydrologic impacts. No impacts are expected through
the rest of the forecast period as well.-- End Changed Discussion --

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --A prolonged E-NE flow continues, backing N/NE toward evening.
This backing of winds should help limit the magnitude of coastal
flooding for most areas, but potentially enhance impacts along
Peconic and Gardiners Bay and north shore of LI.

The latest forecaster adjusted Stevens (75th percentile
weighting), ETSS, PETSS STOFS guidance blend signals widespread
minor coastal flooding for the south shore of Nassau County, the
twin forks of LI (localized moderate impacts possible for north
facing areas along the bayfront), and along much of LI Sound.

Localized minor coastal flooding likely for NY/NJ harbor where
winds will back to the N/NNE earlier. Magnitude of coastal
flooding for central and eastern great South Bay, Moriches, and
Shinnecock bays will depend on tidal piling trends, but looks to
be localized here.

For Fri evening high tide, coastal flooding looks to be more
localized for the Fri eve high tide cycle, to southern Nassau
and SW CT, in response to offshore flow and subsiding onshore
swells.

Potential for localized coastal flooding Sun into early next
week with approach of new moon, causing areas to need as little
as 1/4ft of tidal departure for minor coastal flooding.

As far as shoreline impacts, along the north shore of the south
fork of Long Island, breaking waves of 1 to 3 ft may cause dune
erosion and localized washovers, as well as enhance splashover
and flooding onto shoreline roads and properties. Along the
ocean front and Orient Point, breaking waves of 4 to 6 ft on an
east to west sweep will result in beach erosion and beach
flooding during the times of high tide. Localized dune erosion
is possible. Along the north shore of Long Island, breaking
waves of 3 to 4 ft will cause dune erosion, localized washovers,
as well as enhance splashover and flooding onto shoreline roads
and properties.

The OKX surf zone forecast season begins on Friday with a high rip
current risk for all the ocean beaches. Various contributing
factors include a 4-ft/9-sec E swell coming off today`s high risk,
with low tide in the morning, then an opposing WSW 10-15 flow in the
afternoon leading to chaotic conditions.

The rip current risk for Saturday should be moderate as seas
gradually subside.

Outlook for the rest of the Memorial Day weekend: RCMOS predicts a
moderate rip current risk for Sunday, and a low risk for Memorial
Day, and winds and seas continue to subside.-- End Changed Discussion --

.CLIMATE...
-- Changed Discussion --Record minimum maximum (coldest high temperatures) are possible
for today, May 22nd. Here are the records for today with the
preliminary high temperature for the day as of 3pm:

NYC: 54/1894, high temp so far: 51
JFK: 55/1967, high temp so far: 55
LGA: 57/2003, high temp so far: 52
EWR: 56/2003, high temp so far: 53
BDR: 54/2005, high temp so far: 52
ISP: 54/2003, high temp so far: 53

The following are the record low temperatures for May 23rd:

NYC: 43/1963
JFK: 44/1963
LGA: 45/1963
EWR: 43/1931
BDR: 42/1963
ISP: 42/2006-- End Changed Discussion --

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
CTZ009>012.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NYZ071-
073-078-176-177.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
NYZ079>081-179.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ178.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-332-340-
350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ335-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ338.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ355.-- End Changed Discussion --

SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...JC