211
FXUS61 KOKX 230258
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1058 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure just south of Nantucket early this evening will
lift northward into New England for Friday, and into the
Canadian Maritimes this weekend, while high pressure remains to
the west. The high will build across on Monday, then slide east
on Tuesday as weak low pressure begins to approach from the
Tennessee Valley. The low will pass south on Wednesday, followed
by a weak low pressure trough approaching from the west on
Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast is on track with only minor changes needed.
The low was just south of Nantucket early this evening and
should head northward toward the Gulf of Maine overnight.
Rain/showers become less likely through the night as the storm
shifts away, but the threat remains all night with cyclonic flow
aloft and weak shortwave lift passing nearby. Northerly winds
diminish through the night with lows in the 40s, but still a few
degrees above record lows for May 23rd. See the climate section
below for more details.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cyclonic flow aloft remains over the region during the short term
period as an H5 low meanders over New England. For Friday,
still a good amount of cloud cover with plenty of moisture below
700mb. Thinking is that the day begins as cloudy with partial
sunshine developing in the afternoon. The daytime heating
combined with the cold pool aloft and some shortwave lift could
trigger scattered showers mainly in the afternoon, but likely
with not enough instability for a thunderstorm. High
temperatures below normal by 5- 10 degrees, ranging from the
upper 50s well inland to the low-mid 60s for coastal locations.
Some improvement for Saturday is anticipated with fewer clouds
and slightly warmer temperatures. It likely remains dry for the
entire area, but still cannot rule out an isolated shower NW of
the city during the afternoon as shortwave approaches.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sat night and Sunday will feature partly cloudy skies with below
normal temps as cyclonic flow continues around the slowly weakening
Maritimes low. Fcst for now is dry, but with the approach of an
upper level jet streak and mid level shortwave from the NW can`t
entirely rule out some sprinkles or showers especially from NYC
north/west. Sunday night/Mon look dry and milder, with temps near
normal as high pressure builds form the west.
A weak low passing to the south should bring a chance of light rain
mainly to the NYC metro area west for Tue night, and to most of the
area on Wed, with temps once again below normal. Thu should see
temps returning to normal, but with chances for showers mainly from
NYC metro north/west as another trough approaches from the west.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure slowly tracks into the Gulf of Maine tonight as
another weak low over the eastern Great Lakes tracks east across
New England Friday.
VFR conditions have returned to many terminals, especially the
metro terminals. Some guidance is pointing to a return to MVFR
closer to daybreak Friday for the metro terminals, while eastern
terminals such as KBDR and KISP may see a return to MVFR by mid
Friday morning and KGON may remain VFR through the TAF period.
Decided to stick with a generally MVFR forecast for now and see
how satellite imagery evolves over the next couple of hours. If
MVFR conditions move back in for the metro terminals, slow
improvement is expected through the day Friday, with a return
to VFR not expected until mid afternoon.
NNE winds will shift toward the N, then NW overnight, then W
Friday morning. A surface trough moving through may shift winds
more to the SW or WSW for a few hours in the morning, but are
then expected to shift back to the W as the trough passes east.
Wind speeds will be around 10 kt or less overnight. There may be
occasional gusts of 15 to 20 kt, especially early in the
evening. Sustained winds of 10 to 15 kt for the metro terminals
by mid Friday morning, most other terminals will see sustained
winds around 10 kt for Friday. Gusts of 15 to 20 by mid morning
increase slightly to low 20 kt for the afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely mainly for changes in flight categories.
Occasional gusts of 15 to 20 kt this evening.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday night: VFR. W wind around 10 kt or less.
Saturday and Sunday: Mainly VFR. NW winds
G15-18kt.
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, low end chance of MVFR in any showers/rain.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Gale warnings replaced with SCA over the ern waters, though
mesonet sites right along the coast suggest there could still be
some 35-kt gusts early this evening over the far ern coastal
waters S of Montauk. SCA in effect for the ern Sound,
Peconic/Gardiners Bays until 2 AM Fri until N winds gusting to
25-30 kt diminish, and on the ocean waters until 2 PM Fri when
hazardous seas should subside below 5 ft.
Ocean seas probably hover around 4 ft thereafter through
Saturday, but could be up to 5 ft at times. There will
probably be a long enough period of sub-5 ft seas during this
time frame such that the SCA probably won`t need to be extended
beyond 2 PM Fri.
Quiet from Sat night through Tue night as winds and seas
subside.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No further impacts expected attm.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels have remained mostly below previously forecast
values. The high tide cycle is just peaking on the wrn Sound,
with minor flooding only at the Stamford and Bridgeport gauges,
so a coastal flood advisory remains in effect there until
10 PM. No more than localized minor coastal flooding possible
with the Fri evening high tide cycle there as well.
Farther down the road, there is potential for localized minor
coastal flooding next week with approach of the new moon,
causing areas to need as little as 1/4 ft of tidal departure for
minor coastal flooding.
The OKX surf zone forecast season begins on Friday with a high
rip current risk for all the ocean beaches. Various
contributing factors include a 4-ft/9-sec E swell coming off
today`s gales and rough seas, with low tide in the morning, then
an opposing WSW 10-15 flow in the afternoon leading to
chaotic conditions. Surf temps have cooled off to the lower/mid
50s, which should keep most people out of the water anyway.
The rip current risk for Saturday should be moderate as seas
gradually subside.
Outlook for the rest of the Memorial Day weekend: RCMOS predicts a
moderate rip current risk for Sunday, and a low risk for Memorial
Day, and winds and seas continue to subside.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record daily minimum high temperatures are possible for today,
May 22nd. Here are the records for today with the preliminary
high temperature for the day as of 8 PM:
NYC: 54/1894, high temp so far: 51
JFK: 55/1967, high temp so far: 55
LGA: 57/2003, high temp so far: 53
EWR: 56/2003, high temp so far: 53
BDR: 54/2005, high temp so far: 52
ISP: 54/2003, high temp so far: 53
The following are the daily record low temperatures for May
23rd:
NYC: 43/1963
JFK: 44/1963
LGA: 45/1963
EWR: 43/1931
BDR: 42/1963
ISP: 42/2006
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Friday through Friday
evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ331-332-340.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...JC/BG/JP
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...