164
FXUS61 KOKX 231145
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
745 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure near Cape Cod will track into the Canadian
Maritimes today, then stall and gradually weaken through the
weekend. Weak high pressure will build into the region on
Monday and then slide east on Tuesday. Weak low pressure begins
to approach from the Tennessee Valley midweek, possibly
affecting the region mid or late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LAPS analyzed a 990s low just E of Cape Cod early this mrng.
Some light pockets of rain or sprinkles on radar rotating thru
the cwa on the back side of the sys. As the pcpn associated with
the low dries up and exits the area this mrng, a jet streak
approaches this aftn. With the cold pool aloft, steep lapse
rates thru about h85. The NAM has some sbcape across srn areas
where the clouds break up and temps rise into the 60s. With
these ingredients, would expect at least some sct aftn shwrs,
with a few low topped tstms possible. Some small hail possible
with the cold air aloft but limited residence time.
Shwrs should wane tngt as the BL cools, instability lessens,
and the jet streak exits. Skies may even become mostly clr
overnight. A wly flow however should keep the llvls mixed
sufficiently to prevent significant radiational cooling. If any
areas do decouple, lows could be 5-10 degrees colder in those
spots than currently fcst.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
Instability recharges on Sat with a slight warming trend across
the cwa. All areas progged to reach the 60s. Cold aloft with h85
blw 0C. With cyclonic flow aloft, feel the NAM is too dry, and
the NBM pops which are basically dry across the cwa too low. As
a result, went at least slight chance all areas during the day
on Sat. Coverage isold-sct, with a few low topped tstms again
possible. It will already be breezy with well mixed flow. Time
heights show unidirectional winds thru h2. Some enhanced gusts
possible with any convection with dcape around 200.
Any pcpn should again dissipate Sat ngt, and likely quickly.
Went with the NBM for temps which produces lows about 5 degrees
blw normal.
A drier fcst for Sun, but again cannot rule out a few aftn
shwrs. Did not stray from the NBM however at this stage, so most
of the cwa except for the nwrn corner has a dry fcst. Enough sun
and mixing expected to keep the warming trend going. Cool again
at night with lows in the 40s to around 50. Wouldn`t be
surprised if the guidance trends a little lower based on the
current idea of better radiational cooling.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Good model agreement in mean troughing to start the week as Canadian
Maritimes closed upper low gradually opens up and slides out to sea,
followed by weak ridging albeit interrupted by a northern stream
shortwave rotating through the area on Wed. Model spread increases
in terms of upper level flow for mid-late week, based on interaction
of a northern plains cutoff upper low and northern stream jet over
Canada.
At the surface, weak high pressure builds into the region Mon and
Tue, with dry conditions and temps near seasonable. Potential for a
southern low to approach the region for midweek, but latest medium
range model trend has been for a slower approach for late week, but
will ultimately be predicated on earlier mention interaction of a
northern plains cutoff upper low and northern stream jet over Canada.
Temps will also depend on mid to late week low pressure, generally
running near to slight above seasonable if the low remains
suppressed, otherwise a few degrees below normal if the low pressure
system ends up affecting the region.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Unusually strong late May coastal low pressure slowly tracks up
the New England coast today, while another weak low over the
eastern Great Lakes tracks east across New England, before both
lift northeast tonight.
MVFR cigs (patchy IFR) and isolated showers/sprinkles across
western terminals early this morning with approach of a weak
trough, gradually spreading to KBDR and KISP thru 14z. MVFR cigs
continue through much of the day with iso to sct showers (MVFR
vsby possible w/ -shra) mid morning thru late afternoon,
particularly for northern terminals. A slow improvement to VFR
from SW to NE in the mid to late afternoon. Potential for
scattered late day showers/evening showers (very slight and
sparse tsra potential as well).
Light N winds for the morning push, give way to a SW or WSW
wind 5 to 10 kt for a few hours in the morning ahead of
approaching trough, backing to the W and increasing to
10-14g15-20kt in its wake this afternoon, particularly western
terminals. Gusts subside this evening, but winds likely remain
in the 7 to 10 kt range.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
MVFR conds in -shra likely for morning push. Low probability of IFR
cigs between 10z and 15z.
VFR conds for eve push, outside of iso/sct shra. Very low and sparse
potential for a tsra btwn 22 and 02z.
Light and variable wind for AM push, becoming SW/W. Occasional
westerly gusts of 15 to 20 kt for this aft/eve push.
VFR with winds increasing to 10 to 15 kt with occasional gusts
to 20 kt for Sat Am push.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday: VFR. W winds 15G20-25kt.
Sunday: MVFR. NW winds 10-15g20kt.
Monday: VFR. NW winds 10-15kt.
Tuesday: VFR. Low probability of MVFR in shra late day.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds diminish this mrng, then increase again from the W this
aftn. Waves may fall blw sca lvls for a bit on the ocean, then
return again tngt. The sca was therefore extended thru tngt.
Winds may be close to sca lvls all waters on Sat. On the ocean,
seas will likely be aoa 5 ft. Lighter winds and subsiding seas
expected Sun. Generally sub SCA conditions Mon thru Wed with
weak pressure regime.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected thru the middle of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
Localized minor coastal flooding possible with this evening high
tide cycle for southern portions of Nassau County and SW CT as water
levels approach minor flood thresholds, but confidence is too low
for a statement at this time.
Farther down the road, there is potential for localized minor
coastal flooding Sun into early next week with approach of the new
moon, causing areas to need as little as 1/4 ft of tidal departure
for minor coastal flooding.
The OKX surf zone forecast season begins today with a high rip
current risk for all the ocean beaches. Various contributing factors
include a 4-ft/9-sec E swell and an opposing WSW 10-15 flow in
the afternoon leading to chaotic conditions. Surf temps have
cooled off to the lower/mid 50s, which should keep most people
out of the water anyway.
The rip current risk for Saturday should be moderate as onshore
seas gradually subside.
Outlook for the rest of the Memorial Day weekend: Rip risk likely
reduces to low for Sunday, and a low risk for Memorial Day, as
onshore swells continue to subside.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.CLIMATE...
The following are the daily record low temperatures for today,
May 23rd:
NYC: 43/1963
JFK: 44/1963
LGA: 45/1963
EWR: 43/1931
BDR: 42/1963
ISP: 42/2006
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...