819
FXUS61 KOKX 231335
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
935 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure over New England will slowly track towards the
Canadian Maritimes through Saturday, then stall and gradually
weaken through Sunday. Weak high pressure will build into the
region on Monday and then slide east on Tuesday. Weak low
pressure begins to approach from the Tennessee Valley midweek,
possibly affecting the region mid or late week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Main area of low pressure off Cape Cod with weaker and broader
low over the rest of the northeast. Some pockets of light rain
or sprinkles will pivot through this morning. Areas out east
have actually improved briefly due to subsidence between the low
off Cape Cod and the broader low centered over upstate NY. Think
any breaks will be brief with the area remaining mostly cloudy
through the afternoon. The best chance for some breaks looks to
be closer to the coast in the afternoon as some drier air in the
low levels works in from the southwest.
Several areas of vorticity within the upper trough will rotate
through this afternoon and evening, which may help generate some
isolated to scattered showers. Soundings indicate some weak
instability between 5-10kft. With a freezing levels around 5-6
kft, this instability may be enough to develop some low topped
convection in the afternoon. Depth of instability is thin so any
lightning would be isolated at worst, but there could be brief
very small hail if convection were to develop. The HRRR has been
hinting that this low topped convection could develop where
clouds start thinning out across NJ and then shift towards the
NYC metro and Long Island this evening.
Showers should wane tonight as the BL cools, instability
lessens, and the jet streak exits. Skies may even become mostly
clear overnight. A W flow however should keep the low levels
mixed sufficiently to prevent significant radiational cooling.
If any areas do decouple, lows could be 5-10 degrees colder in
those spots than currently forecast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
Instability recharges on Sat with a slight warming trend across
the cwa. All areas progged to reach the 60s. Cold aloft with h85
blw 0C. With cyclonic flow aloft, feel the NAM is too dry, and
the NBM pops which are basically dry across the cwa too low. As
a result, went at least slight chance all areas during the day
on Sat. Coverage isold-sct, with a few low topped tstms again
possible. It will already be breezy with well mixed flow. Time
heights show unidirectional winds thru h2. Some enhanced gusts
possible with any convection with dcape around 200.
Any pcpn should again dissipate Sat ngt, and likely quickly.
Went with the NBM for temps which produces lows about 5 degrees
blw normal.
A drier fcst for Sun, but again cannot rule out a few aftn
shwrs. Did not stray from the NBM however at this stage, so most
of the cwa except for the nwrn corner has a dry fcst. Enough sun
and mixing expected to keep the warming trend going. Cool again
at night with lows in the 40s to around 50. Wouldn`t be
surprised if the guidance trends a little lower based on the
current idea of better radiational cooling.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Good model agreement in mean troughing to start the week as Canadian
Maritimes closed upper low gradually opens up and slides out to sea,
followed by weak ridging albeit interrupted by a northern stream
shortwave rotating through the area on Wed. Model spread increases
in terms of upper level flow for mid-late week, based on interaction
of a northern plains cutoff upper low and northern stream jet over
Canada.
At the surface, weak high pressure builds into the region Mon and
Tue, with dry conditions and temps near seasonable. Potential for a
southern low to approach the region for midweek, but latest medium
range model trend has been for a slower approach for late week, but
will ultimately be predicated on earlier mention interaction of a
northern plains cutoff upper low and northern stream jet over Canada.
Temps will also depend on mid to late week low pressure, generally
running near to slight above seasonable if the low remains
suppressed, otherwise a few degrees below normal if the low pressure
system ends up affecting the region.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Unusually strong late May coastal low pressure slowly tracks up
the New England coast today, while another weak low over the
eastern Great Lakes tracks east across New England, before both
lift northeast tonight.
MVFR cigs (patchy IFR) and isolated showers/sprinkles across
western terminals early this morning with approach of a weak
trough, gradually spreading to KBDR and KISP thru 14z. MVFR cigs
continue through much of the day with iso to sct showers (MVFR
vsby possible w/ -shra) mid morning thru late afternoon,
particularly for northern terminals. A slow improvement to VFR
from SW to NE in the mid to late afternoon. Potential for
scattered late day showers/evening showers (very slight and
sparse tsra potential as well).
Light N winds for the morning push, give way to a SW or WSW
wind 5 to 10 kt for a few hours in the morning ahead of
approaching trough, backing to the W and increasing to
10-14g15-20kt in its wake this afternoon, particularly western
terminals. Gusts subside this evening, but winds likely remain
in the 7 to 10 kt range.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
MVFR conds in -shra likely for morning push. Low probability of IFR
cigs between 10z and 15z.
VFR conds for eve push, outside of iso/sct shra. Very low and sparse
potential for a tsra btwn 22 and 02z.
Light and variable wind for AM push, becoming SW/W. Occasional
westerly gusts of 15 to 20 kt for this aft/eve push.
VFR with winds increasing to 10 to 15 kt with occasional gusts
to 20 kt for Sat Am push.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday: VFR. W winds 15G20-25kt.
Sunday: MVFR. NW winds 10-15g20kt.
Monday: VFR. NW winds 10-15kt.
Tuesday: VFR. Low probability of MVFR in shra late day.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winds diminish this morning, then increase again from the W
this afternoon. Waves may fall blw sca lvls for a bit on the
ocean, then return again tonight. The sca was therefore
extended through tonight. Winds may be close to sca lvls all
waters on Sat. On the ocean, seas will likely be aoa 5 ft.
Lighter winds and subsiding seas expected Sun. Generally sub SCA
conditions Mon thru Wed with weak pressure regime.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected thru the middle of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Localized minor coastal flooding possible with this evening high
tide cycle for southern portions of Nassau County and SW CT as water
levels approach minor flood thresholds, but confidence is too low
for a statement at this time.
Farther down the road, there is potential for localized minor
coastal flooding Sun into early next week with approach of the new
moon, causing areas to need as little as 1/4 ft of tidal departure
for minor coastal flooding.
The OKX surf zone forecast season begins today with a high rip
current risk for all the ocean beaches. Various contributing factors
include a 4-ft/9-sec E swell and an opposing WSW 10-15 flow in
the afternoon leading to chaotic conditions. Surf temps have
cooled off to the lower/mid 50s, which should keep most people
out of the water anyway.
The rip current risk for Saturday should be moderate as onshore
seas gradually subside.
Outlook for the rest of the Memorial Day weekend: Rip risk likely
reduces to low for Sunday, and a low risk for Memorial Day, as
onshore swells continue to subside.
&&
.CLIMATE...
The following are the daily record low temperatures for today,
May 23rd:
NYC: 43/1963
JFK: 44/1963
LGA: 45/1963
EWR: 43/1931
BDR: 42/1963
ISP: 42/2006
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-
355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...JMC/DS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...