076
FXUS61 KOKX 231742
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
142 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over New England will slowly track towards the
Canadian Maritimes through Saturday, then stall and gradually
weaken through Sunday. Weak high pressure will build into the
region on Monday and then slide east on Tuesday. Weak low
pressure begins to approach from the Tennessee Valley midweek,
possibly affecting the region mid or late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main area of low pressure off the coast of Maine within a
broader low over the northeast. A weak trough is currently
moving across the area along with some middle level vorticity
energy. This will continue to produce some pockets of light rain
or sprinkles into the early afternoon, mainly the western half
of the area. Once the trough pushes north and east, some
improvement is expected with cloud cover, especially closer to
the coast mid to late afternoon.
Several areas of vorticity within the upper trough will continue
rotating through this afternoon and evening, which may help
generate some isolated to scattered showers. Soundings indicate
some weak instability between 5-10kft. With a freezing levels
around 5-6 kft, this instability may be enough to develop some
low topped convection in the afternoon. Depth of instability is
thin so any lightning would be isolated at worst, but there
could be brief very small hail if convection were to develop.
The HRRR has been hinting that this low topped convection could
develop where clouds start thinning out across NJ and then shift
towards the NYC metro and Long Island this evening.
Showers should wane tonight as the BL cools, instability
lessens, and the jet streak exits. Skies may even become mostly
clear overnight. A W flow however should keep the low levels
mixed sufficiently to prevent significant radiational cooling.
If any areas do decouple, lows could be 5-10 degrees colder in
those spots than currently forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
Instability recharges on Sat with a slight warming trend across
the cwa. All areas progged to reach the 60s. Cold aloft with h85
blw 0C. With cyclonic flow aloft, feel the NAM is too dry, and
the NBM pops which are basically dry across the cwa too low. As
a result, went at least slight chance all areas during the day
on Sat. Coverage isold-sct, with a few low topped tstms again
possible. It will already be breezy with well mixed flow. Time
heights show unidirectional winds thru h2. Some enhanced gusts
possible with any convection with dcape around 200.
Any pcpn should again dissipate Sat ngt, and likely quickly.
Went with the NBM for temps which produces lows about 5 degrees
blw normal.
A drier fcst for Sun, but again cannot rule out a few aftn
shwrs. Did not stray from the NBM however at this stage, so most
of the cwa except for the nwrn corner has a dry fcst. Enough sun
and mixing expected to keep the warming trend going. Cool again
at night with lows in the 40s to around 50. Wouldn`t be
surprised if the guidance trends a little lower based on the
current idea of better radiational cooling.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Good model agreement in mean troughing to start the week as Canadian
Maritimes closed upper low gradually opens up and slides out to sea,
followed by weak ridging albeit interrupted by a northern stream
shortwave rotating through the area on Wed. Model spread increases
in terms of upper level flow for mid-late week, based on interaction
of a northern plains cutoff upper low and northern stream jet over
Canada.
At the surface, weak high pressure builds into the region Mon and
Tue, with dry conditions and temps near seasonable. Potential for a
southern low to approach the region for midweek, but latest medium
range model trend has been for a slower approach for late week, but
will ultimately be predicated on earlier mention interaction of a
northern plains cutoff upper low and northern stream jet over Canada.
Temps will also depend on mid to late week low pressure, generally
running near to slight above seasonable if the low remains
suppressed, otherwise a few degrees below normal if the low pressure
system ends up affecting the region.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Unusually strong late May coastal low pressure slowly tracks up
the New England coast today, while another weak low over the
eastern Great Lakes tracks east across New England, before both
lift northeast tonight.
MVFR cigs improve to VFR from SW to NE this afternoon with the
potential for isolated to scattered showers through this
evening. VFR conditions expected tonight and into Saturday.
W winds increasing to 10-14kt gusting to 15-20kt this
afternoon, particularly western terminals. Gusts subside this
evening, but winds likely remain in the 7 to 10 kt range
overnight then gusts picks up again Saturday around 20-25kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
VFR conds for eve push, outside of iso/sct shra. Very low and
sparse potential for a tsra btwn 22 and 02z.
Occasional westerly gusts of 15 to 20 kt for this aft/eve push.
VFR with winds increasing to 10 to 15 kt with occasional gusts
to 20 kt for Sat Am push.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday: VFR. W winds 15G20-25kt.
Sunday: MVFR. NW winds 10-15g20kt.
Monday: VFR. NW winds 10-15kt.
Tuesday & Wednesday: VFR. Low probability of MVFR in shra.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Have adjusted the start time to 8pm for the SCA on the ocean
west of Fire Island Inlet as seas have been around 3 ft with
winds well below 25 kt. The rest of the SCA remains in effect
through tonight. Ocean seas should build close to 5 ft tonight.
Winds may be close to sca lvls all waters on Sat. On the ocean,
seas will likely be around 5 ft, so the SCA may need to be
extended through Saturday evening. Lighter winds and subsiding
seas expected Sun. Generally sub SCA conditions Mon thru Wed
with weak pressure regime.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the middle of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Localized minor coastal flooding possible with this evening high
tide cycle for southern portions of Nassau County and SW CT as water
levels approach minor flood thresholds, but confidence is too low
for a statement at this time.
Farther down the road, there is potential for localized minor
coastal flooding Sun into early next week with approach of the new
moon, causing areas to need as little as 1/4 ft of tidal departure
for minor coastal flooding.
The OKX surf zone forecast season begins today with a high rip
current risk for all the ocean beaches. Various contributing factors
include a 4-ft/9-sec E swell and an opposing WSW 10-15 flow in
the afternoon leading to chaotic conditions. Surf temps have
cooled off to the lower/mid 50s, which should keep most people
out of the water anyway.
The rip current risk for Saturday should be moderate as onshore
seas gradually subside.
Outlook for the rest of the Memorial Day weekend: Rip risk likely
reduces to low for Sunday, and a low risk for Memorial Day, as
onshore swells continue to subside.
&&
.CLIMATE...
The following are the daily record low temperatures for today,
May 23rd:
NYC: 43/1963
JFK: 44/1963
LGA: 45/1963
EWR: 43/1931
BDR: 42/1963
ISP: 42/2006
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
Saturday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...JMC/DS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...20
MARINE...JMC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...