625
FXUS61 KOKX 240917
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
517 AM EDT Sat May 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over New England slowly tracks into the Canadian
Maritimes this weekend before a broad area of high pressure
builds over the region through the beginning of next week. A
frontal system may impact the area for the middle of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Closed low trough continues to swing through the Northeast today,
with the surface low drifting from northern New England into Nova
Scotia. Shortwave rotating around the broader trough could help
to instigate showers at times, though the day is far from a
washout.
Given the cold pool aloft, H85 progged near freezing, temperatures
remain unseasonably cool, and afternoon highs in the low to mid
60s run a good 5 to 10 degrees below climo for late May. A bit
tighter pressure gradient with the slowly exiting low and
building high off to the west will lead to a bit stronger flow
from the WNW, supporting gusts 20 to 30 mph thru the day.
While some clearing to start the morning, cyclonic flow aloft
will yield mostly cloudy skies by afternoon, and with the
shortwave energy and steeper low level lapse rates with the cold
pool, potential for rain showers to pop up, mainly in the
afternoon and evening. Coverage likely more scattered in nature
across the interior with better forcing, and more isolated for
coastal locales. Continued to go a bit above NBM PoPs to include
chance (25-40%) probabilities inland and slight chance (<25%)
along the coast.
Any showers should largely end after sunset with loss of
heating and instability. Skies become mostly clear and set up
another relatively cool night, falling into the 40s inland and
lower 50s closer to the coast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Slow moving low meanders over the Canadian Maritimes on Sunday as
high pressure over the Great Lakes continues to build in locally.
Still additional shortwave energy rotating around the trough
thru late day, which will maintain at least the chance for a
few rain showers at times, though coverage appears lower than on
Saturday. Best chance looks to be in the afternoon across the
interior, mainly north and west of NYC, but can`t rule out
entirely a few isolated showers down to the coast. Plenty of
stratocu development once again, which should lead to more
clouds than sun much of the day.
Temperatures begin to moderate about 5 degrees from the start of the
weekend, and daytime highs range from mid 60s to around 70. A more
relaxed pressure gradient will slacken the flow from the previous
day as well. Any convective activity dissipates by early evening
as temperatures fall back into the 40s and 50s once again overnight.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pres will build over the area Mon and Tue. As nwly flow aloft
develops, despite the high building in, there could be an isold shwr
each day particularly across the interior. A warming trend thru the
period with temps close to normal on Tue.
Zonal flow aloft then develops for Wed-Fri. This will allow for chcs
for shwrs, depending on the exact timing of any embedded shrtwv
energy. Cooler on Wed with a light sely flow off the ocean, then a
waa regime develops thru the end of the week with another slight
warming trend the result. Temps will be held back a little on Thu
due to continued onshore component flow. It would not be surprising
to see some fog develop by Thu mrng, with perhaps some additional
fog Thu ngt.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure will continue to slowly track off the eastern New
England coast then meander over northern New England through
this afternoon.
VFR. Isold shwrs producing a brief drop to MVFR possible today,
but coverage and timing too uncertain to include in the TAFs.
Increasing W winds thru 12Z. W winds continue for Saturday at
around 15 kt to 20 kt, with gusts of 20 to 25 kt by mid to late
morning. Speeds decrease a little Sat ngt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
There is a chance of isold shwrs 14-22Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Tonight: VFR. W winds 5-10 kt.
Sunday: MVFR. NW winds 10-15G20 kt.
Monday: VFR. NW winds 10-15 kt.
Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday: Chance of showers with possible MVFR cond.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) on the ocean remains in effect
through 22Z this evening with marginal 25 kt gusts and 5 ft seas
expected. SCA still includes NY Harbor and LI South Shore Bays
as wind gusts will likely end up near 25 kt late morning into
the afternoon. Winds lighten this evening, and sub SCA
conditions then expected on all waters tonight through Sunday
night.
Winds and seas look to remain blw sca lvls Mon-Thu with a broad
area of high pres in the region.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through Friday of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
There is potential for localized minor coastal flooding Sun into
early next week with approach of the new moon, causing areas to need
as little as 1/4 ft of tidal departure for minor coastal flooding.
There is a high risk of rip currents along local Atlantic beaches
through this evening due to elevated ocean seas up to 5 ft and
WNW flow near 15 kt with stronger gusts. Modeled rip current
probabilities yields highest threat from late morning into
early afternoon.
Outlook for the rest of the Memorial Day Weekend:
The rip current risk for Sunday is moderate as winds and seas
gradually subside.
Rip current risk reduces to low for Memorial Day, as swells continue
to subside.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ338-
345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JMC/DR
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DR