639
FXUS61 KOKX 241436
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1036 AM EDT Sat May 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over New England slowly tracks into the Canadian
Maritimes this weekend before a broad area of high pressure
builds over the region through the beginning of next week. A
frontal system may impact the area for the middle of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
With the isolated light showers moving through southern
COnnecticut and into Long Island have updated the probabilities,
mainly based on the HRRR which captured current activity.
Otherwise, only minor changes as other parameters mainly on
track.
Closed low trough continues to swing through the Northeast
today, with the surface low drifting from northern New England
into Nova Scotia. Shortwave rotating around the broader trough
could help to instigate showers at times, though the day is far
from a washout.
Given the cold pool aloft, H85 progged near freezing, temperatures
remain unseasonably cool, and afternoon highs in the low to mid
60s run a good 5 to 10 degrees below climo for late May. A bit
tighter pressure gradient with the slowly exiting low and
building high off to the west will lead to a bit stronger flow
from the WNW, supporting gusts 20 to 30 mph thru the day.
Cyclonic flow aloft has led to mostly cloudy skies across much
of the interior, with most of the area then becoming mostly
cloudy this afternoon, and with the shortwave energy and
steeper low level lapse rates with the cold pool, potential for
rain showers to pop up, mainly in the afternoon and evening.
Coverage likely more scattered in nature across the interior
with better forcing, and more isolated for coastal locales.
Continued to go a bit above NBM PoPs to include chance (25-40%)
probabilities inland and slight chance (<25%) along the coast.
Any showers should largely end after sunset with loss of
heating and instability. Skies become mostly clear and set up
another relatively cool night, falling into the 40s inland and
lower 50s closer to the coast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Slow moving low meanders over the Canadian Maritimes on Sunday as
high pressure over the Great Lakes continues to build in locally.
Still additional shortwave energy rotating around the trough
thru late day, which will maintain at least the chance for a
few rain showers at times, though coverage appears lower than on
Saturday. Best chance looks to be in the afternoon across the
interior, mainly north and west of NYC, but can`t rule out
entirely a few isolated showers down to the coast. Plenty of
stratocu development once again, which should lead to more
clouds than sun much of the day.
Temperatures begin to moderate about 5 degrees from the start of the
weekend, and daytime highs range from mid 60s to around 70. A more
relaxed pressure gradient will slacken the flow from the previous
day as well. Any convective activity dissipates by early evening
as temperatures fall back into the 40s and 50s once again overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pres will build over the area Mon and Tue. As nwly flow aloft
develops, despite the high building in, there could be an isold shwr
each day particularly across the interior. A warming trend thru the
period with temps close to normal on Tue.
Zonal flow aloft then develops for Wed-Fri. This will allow for chcs
for shwrs, depending on the exact timing of any embedded shrtwv
energy. Cooler on Wed with a light sely flow off the ocean, then a
waa regime develops thru the end of the week with another slight
warming trend the result. Temps will be held back a little on Thu
due to continued onshore component flow. It would not be surprising
to see some fog develop by Thu mrng, with perhaps some additional
fog Thu ngt.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure will continue to slowly track towards the Canadian
Maritimes this weekend.
VFR. Brief MVFR ceilings possible into the afternoon, especially
in isolated to scattered showers. Coverage and timing too
uncertain to include in the TAFs.
W-WNW winds increasing into the afternoon, 10-15 kt with gusts
20-25 kt. Winds and gusts weaken tonight, settling to around 10
kt overnight. Winds may veer to the NW on Sunday with speeds
10-15 kt gusting around 20 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Isolated showers possible this afternoon.
End time of gusts this evening may be off by 1-2 hours.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: VFR. NW winds 10-15G20 kt.
Monday-Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday: MVFR possible. Chance of showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
No changes to winds and seas with this update.
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) on the ocean remains in effect
through 22Z this evening with marginal 25 kt gusts and 5 ft seas
expected. SCA still includes NY Harbor and LI South Shore Bays
as wind gusts will likely end up near 25 kt late morning into
the afternoon. Winds lighten this evening, and sub SCA
conditions then expected on all waters tonight through Sunday
night.
Winds and seas look to remain blw sca lvls Mon-Thu with a broad
area of high pres in the region.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through Friday of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
There is potential for localized minor coastal flooding Sunday
into early next week with a new moon occurring Monday evening,
causing areas to need as little as 1/4 ft of tidal departure for
minor coastal flooding.
There is a high risk of rip currents along local Atlantic beaches
through this evening due to elevated ocean seas up to 5 ft and
WNW flow near 15 kt with stronger gusts. Modeled rip current
probabilities yields highest threat from late morning into
early afternoon.
Outlook for the rest of the Memorial Day Weekend:
The rip current risk for Sunday is moderate as winds and seas
gradually subside.
Rip current risk reduces to low for Memorial Day, as swells continue
to subside.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ338-
345-350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DR
NEAR TERM...DR/MET
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JMC/DR/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...