okx-afd on 2025-05-24

217
FXUS61 KOKX 250237
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1037 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the Canadian Maritime remains through Sunday,
then moves east and weakens Sunday night into Monday. High
pressure builds into the northeast Monday and Monday night
through Tuesday night. By midweek, high pressure moves offshore
into the Atlantic with a series of low pressure system moving
through late in the week.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --The forecast is mainly on track. The threat of showers has
ended for the rest of the night with more stability in place.

An upper trough over the northeast, with a closed upper low,
will remain nearly stationary tonight through much of Sunday
before beginning to shift east and weaken late Sunday afternoon.
Spokes of energy rotate around the upper low.

With daytime heating and instability Sunday a few showers will
be possible once again. With the cyclonic flow continuing into
Sunday, and a cool airmass over the region, daytime cloudiness
Sunday will increase, and temperatures will remain below normal.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
An upper closed low and trough over the northeast begins to move
eastward as an elongated trough remains over the region. A ridge
will be approaching to the west late Sunday night and heights will
begin to rise, and continue rising into Monday night as a broad flat
ridge builds toward the east coast. Surface high pressure also
builds toward the area and will be overhead late Monday and
Monday night. With slowly increasing subsidence not expecting
any showers to develop Monday. However, there may be a few well
inland, but not enough to have probabilities. Temperatures
modify Monday with a little more sunshine likely.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper levels exhibit a ridging pattern Tuesday through the middle of
next week. At the surface, the center of high pressure will be close
to the local region Tuesday. The high pressure area builds offshore
Tuesday night and continues to move farther offshore out into the
Atlantic Wednesday.

Dry conditions are expected to prevail Tuesday through much of
Tuesday night. Temperatures are forecast to rebound, reaching more
into the 70s for more areas on Tuesday with southerly flow and warm
air advection.

For the middle to late portion of next week, low pressure will be
approaching at the surface. Aloft, the ridge axis moves across
Wednesday and then moves east of the region Wednesday night.
Meanwhile, a strong cutoff low approaches and moves through the
Great Lakes. The cutoff low transitions to a strong trough and
approaches the local region Thursday through Friday. One strong
embedded shortwave moves across early Friday. The overall synoptic
pattern of trough over the Northeast remains heading into next
weekend.

At the surface, multiple areas of low pressure approach, one from
the Great Lakes and one from the mid-Atlantic. Both appear to be
rather weak in magnitude. For Thursday through Thursday night a
frontal system approaches the area. Associated cold front passes
east of the area Friday with another one to follow for next Saturday.

Rain returns to the forecast late Tuesday night for parts of
Northeast NJ but just a slight chance of rain showers. Chances for
showers remain in the forecast Wednesday through Saturday. With
models indicating some weak low level instability Thursday night and
Friday, also have a slight chance of thunderstorms.

Regarding temperatures, cooler days forecast Wednesday and Thursday
when there is forecast to be more onshore flow during the day. Range
of high temperatures forecast mid 60s to lower 70s for those days.
For Friday and Saturday, the forecast high temperatures those days
are well into the 70s with more westerly component to the surface
winds.

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure will continue to slowly track over the Canadian
Maritimes through Sunday.

VFR. WNW winds settling to around 10 kt or less overnight. Winds WNW-
NW ON Sunday increase to 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday night: VFR.

Monday-Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday-Thursday: MVFR possible. Chance of showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

.MARINE...
Low pressure remains over the Canadian Maritime tonight into
Sunday, with gusty northwest winds once again during Sunday.
Conditions are below SCA thresholds this evening and are
expected to remain below SCA thresholds through Sunday. Some
gusts to 20 kt are still expected.

Gusts Sunday are likely to be below 25 kt. There may be a few
nearshore gusts near 25 kt, but will not issue a SCA for Sunday.
High pressure then builds toward the waters through Monday
night. Once wind gusts diminish below 25 kt by early this
evening, winds and seas will remain below advisory levels on all
the forecast waters through Monday night. Pressure gradient
remains relatively weak Tuesday through Thursday night, keeping
below SCA conditions on the forecast waters. Conditions are
actually forecast to stay well below SCA criteria much of the
time.

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is potential for localized minor coastal flooding Sunday
into early next week with a new moon occurring Monday evening,
causing areas to need as little as 1/4 ft of tidal departure for
minor coastal flooding.

The rip current risk for Sunday is moderate as winds and seas
gradually subside. There will still be a residual easterly
swell around 1-2 ft with period of around 8 sec. Ocean seas
will have a general downward trend during the day.

Rip current risk reduces to low for Memorial Day, as swells
continue to subside.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

SYNOPSIS...JM/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...