645
FXUS61 KOKX 251317
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
917 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure meanders near the Canadian Maritimes today, with
high pressure attempting to build in from the west. The high
tracks over the region by late Monday as the low exits farther out
to sea. High pressure over the region weakens by the middle of
the week, allowing a series of weak disturbances to potentially
impact the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast on track. Troughing remains in place over the
Northeast today as the upper low meanders over the Canadian
Maritimes. Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes attempts
to build in from the west.
Cyclonic flow and surface heating will continue to develop
partly to mostly cloudy skies through the afternoon. Additional
shortwave energy rotating around the trough will maintain a
possibility of isolated showers, though coverage appears lower
than on Saturday. Pressure gradient a bit more relaxed than
Saturday, but still anticipating some gusts 20-25 mph in the
afternoon.
Temperatures continue to moderate a few degrees with afternoon
highs ranging from mid 60s to around 70.
Any showers dissipate shortly after sunset and temperatures fall
back once again into the 40s and 50s overnight.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Ridging begins to build in on Memorial Day, as surface high pressure
centered over the Great Lakes noses into the Mid Atlantic.
Expect less in the way of shower activity relative to the rest of
the holiday weekend, with subsidence from the ridge and lack of a
forcing mechanism. Still can`t rule out a spotty pop up late day
shower, especially inland, but not enough at this point to warrant
slight chance PoPs (>15%).
Additional sunshine and a bit deeper mixing on Monday yields
slightly milder conditions, with much of the region away from
the immediate shoreline topping out around 70, or low to mid 70s
in the urban metro and NE NJ. Light flow and dew pts in the 40s
should allow for a comfortable afternoon under a mix of sun and
clouds.
Surface high builds overhead Monday night, and skies attempt to
clear overnight in response. This should set up one more relatively
cool night, falling into the 40s across the interior southern CT and
LoHud Valley, and LI Pine Barrens, with 50s elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pres builds offshore on Tue, resulting in a return flow off the
ocean. Could be some enhanced sea breeze action late in the day as
the general flow couples with the sea breeze circulations. Dry wx
fcst with shrtwv ridging across the area. Temps modified by the
onshore flow, but close to normal nonetheless for the first time
since the 18th.
An upr low stalled over the upr Midwest will then produce a more
zonal flow across the cwa thru the rest of the week, ushering in a
series of disturbances. This will produce chances for shwrs thru the
period. Any track and timing of the rain is uncertain attm, as the
features will be driven in part by convection from the plains to the
Southeast. The latest GFS is actually quite dry for most of the
week, but stuck with the NBM with the blended approach deemed the
best for now.
There is a chance for a more organized low and widespread rainfall
for the weekend, but uncertainty is high this far out despite a 40
pop from the NBM.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure will continue to slowly track over the Canadian
Maritimes today. High pres begins to build in tngt.
VFR. An isold SHRA cannot be ruled out today, but coverage and
probability too low to include in the TAFs.
Winds WNW-NW today increase to 10-15 kt with gusts around 20
kt. Winds decrease aft 23Z and remain light thru Mon mrng. A sea
breeze is likely Mon aftn, especially JFK.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday-Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday-Thursday: MVFR possible. Chance of showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Northwest winds gust up to around 20 kt thru today, and should
prevail below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria. Occasional 25 kt
gusts are possible however, particularly along the near shore waters
this afternoon.
Flow lightens tonight as high pressure builds in, and
conditions remain sub SCA thru Memorial Day with winds under 10
kt, and seas at or below 3 ft across all coastal waters.
Winds and seas then look to remain blw sca lvls Tue-Wed with
high pres weakening over the waters. Seas on the ocean may build
to sca lvls for the rest of the week as a series of weak sys
potentially impact the waters.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
There is potential for localized minor coastal flooding tonight
into early next week. A new moon will occur Monday evening,
causing areas to need as little as 1/4 ft of tidal departure for
minor coastal flooding. Water levels may just touch or fall
short of minor flooding benchmarks along the western CT coast
with tonight`s high tide. It continues to look marginal so have
held off on any statement for now. There is a higher chance of
localized minor flooding across the Western Sound and south
shore back bays with Monday evenings high tide.
There is a moderate rip current risk today as winds and seas gradually
subside. Highest threat in the morning and early afternoon, with a
residual easterly swell around 2 ft with 8 sec period. Ocean seas
will have a general downward trend during the day.
Rip current risk reduces to low for Memorial Day, as swells continue
to subside.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DR
NEAR TERM...DR/DS
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JMC/DR
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...