675
FXUS61 KOKX 252229
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
629 PM EDT Sun May 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure near the Canadian Maritimes continue departing
into Monday. High pressure settles over the area on Monday and
then gradually shifts offshore on Tuesday into Tuesday night.
A series of low pressure systems move through the region
for the remainder of the week and into next weekend.

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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Minor adjustments were made to the forecast. Increased coverage of showers towards parts of Lower Hudson Valley and SW Connecticut to scattered. Otherwise, forecast remains on track. Cyclonic flow remains aloft this evening into tonight as the upper low that has impacted our weather only slowly moves east over the Maritimes. Daytime heating and moisture below a subsidence inversion has led a broken deck of stratocu clouds. Forecast soundings are still indicating some very weak instability development between 5-10kft into the evening. Have isolated to scattered showers through early evening, but most places should remain dry. Mixing will continue this evening, but winds should start weakening after sunset and as the pressure gradient slackens through the night. Lows will range from the upper 40s inland to the lower 50s closer to coast. The upper low moves further out to sea on Monday. There still be will be some influence from cyclonic flow aloft, but ridging starts building towards the area with heights rising. Amount of cloud cover should be a bit less than recent days, but still anticipate scattered to broken stratocu late morning into the afternoon. Have kept the forecast dry as instability is lacking, but a brief sprinkle cannot be ruled out across inland locations. Winds will be much weaker with high pressure settling overhead along with weak afternoon sea breezes. Highs should be able to reach close to normal levels in the lower 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure remains in control Monday night, leading to another cool night but closer to seasonable levels. Lows look to fall into the upper 40s and low 50s inland with middle to upper 50s closer to the coast. Ridging will continue building towards the area on Tuesday in response to the next upper low/trough amplifying over the northern Plains. The ridge should remain overhead Tuesday night as a shortwave well ahead of the upper low approaches. The ridge will keep the region dry Tuesday into Tuesday night. However, mid and upper level moisture increases late Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will be increasing cloud cover, especially Tuesday night. Otherwise, dry and seasonably warm conditions are expected Tuesday with highs in the lower to middle 70s. The increasing clouds should bring a milder Tuesday night with lows in the 50s across the region. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Upper levels exhibit a ridge moving east of the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. A series of troughs then move through Thursday into the next weekend. On the large scale, a longwave trough takes shape over the Northeast for the latter half of the week. For the middle to late portion of next week, a series of low pressure areas will be approaching at the surface. A weak low approaches from the Mid-Atlantic with its associated warm front Wednesday into Thursday. Easterly flow at the surface is forecast, which will keep temperatures cooler during the day. The warm front shifts east of the region Thursday into Thursday night along with the low pressure. Surface winds become more south to southwest. Another low pressure system will be approaching from the west along with an associated cold front Friday into Friday night. For the weekend, another area of low pressure approaches the region. Rain is in the forecast throughout the long term. However, this is expected to be in the form of showers and probabilities for these are mostly between 30 and 50 percent. Higher probabilities are for Wednesday night into early Thursday with some likely POPs for western portions of the region. Rain is not expected the entire timeframe of the long term but the chances each day are due to the quick succession of consecutive low pressure area passages mid through late week. Slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast Thursday through Saturday. GFS and ECMWF models indicate increases in low level instability but have differences in timing when the relatively more unstable forecast conditions are in place across the local area. The model differences are also apparent with position and timing of low pressure and upper level troughs. Forecast daytime temperatures during the long term are cooler than normal Wednesday and Thursday with high temperatures more in the 60s and then are close to normal Friday and into the weekend as high temperatures reach more into the 70s. Low temperatures are mostly in the 50s. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A weak surface trough remains across the region through this afternoon. High pressure builds in tonight through Monday. VFR. An isold SHRA cannot be ruled out this afternoon, however, coverage and probability too low and not included in the TAFs. Winds NW, 300 to 310 magnetic, 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt. Gusts end late afternoon/early evening, by 00Z, with winds diminishing. Outlying terminals become light and variable tonight. A light NW to N flow develops Monday morning with afternoon sea breezes developing. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled amendments expected. Sea breeze at KJFK may be an hour or so earlier than forecast. There is a chance that sea breezes do not reach the other metro terminals. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Monday-Tuesday: VFR. Wednesday-Friday: MVFR likely. IFR possible Thursday. Chance of showers. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... A few nearshore gusts close to 25 kt possible into early this evening. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through mid week with a relatively weak pressure gradient in place. Conditions on the waters remain below SCA thresholds in the marine forecast Wednesday but trend to marginal SCA conditions on the ocean for Wednesday night. Non-ocean zones for the rest of forecast are below SCA thresholds. SCA seas remain on the ocean in the forecast Thursday through Friday, although Friday has oceans near 5 ft east of Fire Island Inlet. Gusts up to 20 kt are expected Thursday and Friday on all waters. Some occasional gusts up to 25 kt will be possible. Marine forecast has below SCA conditions in store for Friday night. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts expected through next weekend. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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There is potential for localized minor coastal flooding tonight into early next week during times of high tide. A new moon will occur Monday evening, causing areas to need as little as 1/4 ft of tidal departure for minor coastal flooding. Water levels may just touch or fall short of minor flooding benchmarks along the western CT coast with tonight`s high tide. It continues to look marginal and have held off on the issuance of a coastal flood statement. There is a higher chance of localized minor flooding across the Western Sound and south shore back bays with Monday evenings high tide. There is a moderate rip current risk through early this evening as winds and seas gradually subside. Seas will continue trending downward. Rip current risk reduces to low for Memorial Day, as swells continue to subside with light winds. Rip current risk remains low for Tuesday with light winds and subsiding seas.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM/DS NEAR TERM...JM/DS SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...MET MARINE...JM/DS HYDROLOGY...JM/DS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...