445
FXUS61 KOKX 252322
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
722 PM EDT Sun May 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure near the Canadian Maritimes continue departing
into Monday. High pressure settles over the area on Monday and
then gradually shifts offshore on Tuesday into Tuesday night.
A series of low pressure systems move through the region
for the remainder of the week and into next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Minor adjustments were made to the forecast. Increased coverage
of showers towards parts of Lower Hudson Valley and SW
Connecticut to scattered. Otherwise, forecast remains on track.
Cyclonic flow remains aloft this evening into tonight as the
upper low that has impacted our weather only slowly moves east
over the Maritimes. Daytime heating and moisture below a
subsidence inversion has led a broken deck of stratocu clouds.
Forecast soundings are still indicating some very weak
instability development between 5-10kft into the evening. Have
isolated to scattered showers through early evening, but most
places should remain dry. Mixing will continue this evening, but
winds should start weakening after sunset and as the pressure
gradient slackens through the night. Lows will range from the
upper 40s inland to the lower 50s closer to coast.
The upper low moves further out to sea on Monday. There still
be will be some influence from cyclonic flow aloft, but ridging
starts building towards the area with heights rising. Amount of
cloud cover should be a bit less than recent days, but still
anticipate scattered to broken stratocu late morning into the
afternoon. Have kept the forecast dry as instability is lacking,
but a brief sprinkle cannot be ruled out across inland
locations. Winds will be much weaker with high pressure settling
overhead along with weak afternoon sea breezes. Highs should be
able to reach close to normal levels in the lower 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains in control Monday night, leading to
another cool night but closer to seasonable levels. Lows look
to fall into the upper 40s and low 50s inland with middle to
upper 50s closer to the coast.
Ridging will continue building towards the area on Tuesday
in response to the next upper low/trough amplifying over the
northern Plains. The ridge should remain overhead Tuesday night
as a shortwave well ahead of the upper low approaches. The ridge
will keep the region dry Tuesday into Tuesday night. However,
mid and upper level moisture increases late Tuesday into Tuesday
night. This will be increasing cloud cover, especially Tuesday
night. Otherwise, dry and seasonably warm conditions are
expected Tuesday with highs in the lower to middle 70s. The
increasing clouds should bring a milder Tuesday night with lows
in the 50s across the region.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper levels exhibit a ridge moving east of the region
Wednesday into Wednesday night. A series of troughs then move
through Thursday into the next weekend. On the large scale, a
longwave trough takes shape over the Northeast for the latter
half of the week.
For the middle to late portion of next week, a series of
low pressure areas will be approaching at the surface. A weak
low approaches from the Mid-Atlantic with its associated warm
front Wednesday into Thursday. Easterly flow at the surface is
forecast, which will keep temperatures cooler during the day.
The warm front shifts east of the region Thursday into Thursday
night along with the low pressure. Surface winds become more
south to southwest. Another low pressure system will be
approaching from the west along with an associated cold front
Friday into Friday night. For the weekend, another area of low
pressure approaches the region.
Rain is in the forecast throughout the long term. However, this
is expected to be in the form of showers and probabilities for
these are mostly between 30 and 50 percent. Higher probabilities
are for Wednesday night into early Thursday with some likely
POPs for western portions of the region.
Rain is not expected the entire timeframe of the long term but
the chances each day are due to the quick succession of
consecutive low pressure area passages mid through late week.
Slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast Thursday
through Saturday. GFS and ECMWF models indicate increases in low
level instability but have differences in timing when the
relatively more unstable forecast conditions are in place across
the local area. The model differences are also apparent with
position and timing of low pressure and upper level troughs.
Forecast daytime temperatures during the long term are cooler
than normal Wednesday and Thursday with high temperatures more
in the 60s and then are close to normal Friday and into the
weekend as high temperatures reach more into the 70s. Low
temperatures are mostly in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds in tonight through Monday.
VFR.
NW winds under 10 kt tonight veering N Monday morning, followed
by afternoon sea breezes. Winds should remain at around 10 kt or
less.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected. Sea breeze timing may be off
by 1-2 hours, and there is a chance that sea breezes don`t
reach KLGA/KEWR/KTEB.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday night-Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday-Friday: MVFR likely. IFR possible Thursday. Chance of
showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through mid week
with a relatively weak pressure gradient in place.
Conditions on the waters remain below SCA thresholds in the marine
forecast Wednesday but trend to marginal SCA conditions on the ocean
for Wednesday night. Non-ocean zones for the rest of forecast are
below SCA thresholds. SCA seas remain on the ocean in the forecast
Thursday through Friday, although Friday has oceans near 5 ft east
of Fire Island Inlet. Gusts up to 20 kt are expected Thursday and
Friday on all waters. Some occasional gusts up to 25 kt will be
possible. Marine forecast has below SCA conditions in store for
Friday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through next weekend.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
There is potential for localized minor coastal flooding tonight
into early next week during times of high tide. A new moon will
occur Monday evening, causing areas to need as little as 1/4 ft
of tidal departure for minor coastal flooding. Water levels may
just touch or fall short of minor flooding benchmarks along the
western CT coast with tonight`s high tide. It continues to look
marginal and have held off on the issuance of a coastal flood
statement. There is a higher chance of localized minor flooding
across the Western Sound and south shore back bays with Monday
evenings high tide.
There is a low rip current risk for Memorial Day as swells
continue to subside with light winds. The rip current risk
remains low for Tuesday with light winds and subsiding seas.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...JC