867
FXUS61 KOKX 261149
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
749 AM EDT Mon May 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the area through Tuesday. A series
of low pressure systems then move through the region from
midweek through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Minor tweaks to hourly temps this mrng. Otherwise, the fcst is
on track. Rising heights today, so despite some more weak
instability during the daytime hours, this should inhibit the
development of shwrs today. With the steep llvl lapse rates,
skies could cu up quickly and become bkn-ovc at times as the cu
flattens blw subsidence aloft. A light NW flow early today
becomes light sly late as the ocean air attempts to advect in on
weak background flow. High temps are still progged to be
slightly blw normal, although almost the entire are is expected
to hit at least 70 per the NBM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pres ridges across the region on Tue, keeping the cwa dry.
A moderate sly flow develops Tue aftn aided by warming temps
over the land. The NBM suggests that this is the day that highs
reach normal.
Increasing clouds Tue ngt as moisture from the srn Plains
reaches the area. The main sys approaches Wed and looks to be
the result of cycles of convection, with these remnants passing
S of the area on Wed along a nearly stationary front. Slightly
cooler with the clouds, chances for shwrs, and continued onshore
component flow. Went with the NBM pops, but there are some
timing differences with the ECMWF much slower than the GFS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Long term looks rather unsettled with troughing over the Midwest
swinging east through late week with a series of low pressure
systems developing and passing nearby.
Weakening low pressure approaches from the Mid Atlantic to start Wed
night into Thu. Differences in placement and timing continue amongst
the global models, and quite a bit of uncertainty as to the primary
window for precipitation. Can`t rule out convective thunderstorms,
particularly Thursday, though the risk for severe weather appears
low, as does any significant hydro concerns. The next low pressure
quickly follows Friday into the start of the weekend, with
additional rainfall.
While not an entire washout, chances for showers persist through
much of the the period. Despite this, QPF isn`t too impressive, with
ensemble means generally averaging at or under an inch in total.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds in through the day.
VFR.
NW winds under 10 kt veer N this morning, followed by afternoon
sea breezes. Winds remain at around 10 kt or less thru the day,
lightening further tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
Sea breeze timing may be off by 1-2 hours.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday-Friday: MVFR likely. IFR possible Thursday. Chance of
showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through the day on
Wed with a relatively weak pressure gradient in place.
Ocean seas build to 5 ft Wed night or Thursday on the ocean,
and likely remain elevated into the weekend. Elsewhere, sub SCA
conditions expected.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through next weekend.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
Localized minor coastal flooding possible during the next
couple of high tide cycles with astronomically high water levels
from a new moon occurring this evening.
Coastal Flood Statement hoisted for this evening`s high tide cycle
for coastal Fairfield CT along the western LI Sound, as well as for
the back bays of Nassau, Queens, and the most vulnerable locales in
Brooklyn. Water levels here could touch or just exceed minor
flood thresholds.
There is a low rip current risk thru Tue with light winds. The
risk likely increases to moderate on Wednesday with building
seas.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DR
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JC/DR
MARINE...JMC/DR
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...