624
FXUS61 KOKX 261424
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1024 AM EDT Mon May 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the area through Tuesday. A series
of low pressure systems then move through the region from
midweek through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to account
for the latest observations of temperature and dew point.
Rising heights today, so despite some more weak instability
during the daytime hours, this should inhibit the development of
shwrs. With the steep llvl lapse rates, skies could cu up
quickly and become bkn-ovc at times as the cu flattens blw
subsidence aloft. A light NW flow early today becomes light sly
late as the ocean air attempts to advect in on weak background
flow. High temps are still progged to be slightly blw normal,
although almost the entire are is expected to hit at least 70
per the NBM.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pres ridges across the region on Tue, keeping the cwa dry.
A moderate sly flow develops Tue aftn aided by warming temps
over the land. The NBM suggests that this is the day that highs
reach normal.
Increasing clouds Tue ngt as moisture from the srn Plains
reaches the area. The main sys approaches Wed and looks to be
the result of cycles of convection, with these remnants passing
S of the area on Wed along a nearly stationary front. Slightly
cooler with the clouds, chances for shwrs, and continued onshore
component flow. Went with the NBM pops, but there are some
timing differences with the ECMWF much slower than the GFS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Long term looks rather unsettled with troughing over the
Midwest swinging east through late week with a series of low
pressure systems developing and passing nearby.
Weakening low pressure approaches from the Mid Atlantic to
start Wed night into Thu. Differences in placement and timing
continue amongst the global models, and quite a bit of
uncertainty as to the primary window for precipitation. Can`t
rule out convective thunderstorms, particularly Thursday, though
the risk for severe weather appears low, as does any
significant hydro concerns. The next low pressure quickly
follows Friday into the start of the weekend, with additional
rainfall.
While not an entire washout, chances for showers persist
through much of the the period. Despite this, QPF isn`t too
impressive, with ensemble means generally averaging at or under
an inch in total.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds in through the day.
VFR.
Winds will be light this morning into early afternoon, and vary at
times from NW to N. Afternoon sea breezes develop early to late
afternoon. Winds become light and variable throughout the area this
evening. A light southerly flow develops Tuesday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
Sea breeze timing may be off by 1-2 hours.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday-Friday: MVFR likely. IFR possible Thursday. Chance of
showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through the day on
Wed with a relatively weak pressure gradient in place.
Ocean seas build to 5 ft Wed night or Thursday on the ocean,
and likely remain elevated into the weekend. Elsewhere, sub SCA
conditions expected.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through next weekend.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Localized minor coastal flooding possible during the next
couple of high tide cycles with astronomically high water levels
from a new moon occurring this evening.
Coastal Flood Statement hoisted for this evening`s high tide cycle
for coastal Fairfield CT along the western LI Sound, as well as for
the back bays of Nassau, Queens, and the most vulnerable locales in
Brooklyn. Water levels here could touch or just exceed minor
flood thresholds.
There is a low rip current risk thru Tue with light winds. The
risk likely increases to moderate on Wednesday with building
seas.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DR
NEAR TERM...JMC/MW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DR/MET
MARINE...JMC/DR/MW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...