225
FXUS61 KOKX 270235
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1035 PM EDT Mon May 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the area through Tuesday. For
Wednesday, high pressure will be moving well out into the
Atlantic. A series of low pressure systems move through the
region for the remainder of the week and into the start of the
weekend. Weak high pressure returns Sunday into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast is mainly on track. Dry conditions expected as
surface high pressure builds into the area tonight.
Light northerly flow should become generally light and variable
with a mostly clear sky. This should allow for some efficient
surface cooling overnight. Some outlying locations may drop into
the upper 40s. Otherwise, lows in the low to middle 50s are
expected.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure overhead Tuesday morning will continue to gradually
slide offshore to the southeast into the afternoon. This will result
in generally clear skies during the morning with light synoptic
flow. Seabreezes should become more dominant toward afternoon, aided
by the offshore high pressure. This may limit the cooling of coastal
areas, mainly coastal southern Connecticut and southern Long Island.
Otherwise, highs expected to be in the middle to upper 70s for much
of the area. Coastal areas may only reach the middle to upper 60s.
By afternoon, high clouds will begin to filter in from the southwest
ahead of the next disturbance. This increasing cloud cover and a
light southerly flow off of the ocean advecting more moisture into
the area will limit the extent of cooling Tuesday night. Lows will
be in the middle to upper 50s for most, though some outlying areas
may drop into the low 50s. Despite increasing cloud cover,
overnight Tuesday will be dry.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper levels exhibit a ridge moving east of the region Wednesday
into Wednesday night. A series of troughs then move through Thursday
into the next weekend. On the large scale, a longwave trough takes
shape over the Northeast for the latter half of the week. The trough
shifts east of the region early next week, with ridging moving in.
Low pressure areas approach from the Mid-Atlantic and Great Lakes
Wednesday through Wednesday night. The mid-Atlantic low moves across
the local area Thursday. Another low pressure area then approaches
Friday from near the Appalachians. This low moves across Friday
night into Saturday.
Rain is in the forecast Wednesday through Thursday night with
highest probabilities Wednesday night and Thursday. More chances of
rain showers are forecast Friday afternoon through Saturday.
GFS and ECMWF models indicate increases in low level instability but
have differences in timing when the relatively more unstable
forecast conditions are in place across the local area. The model
differences are also apparent with position and timing of low
pressure and upper level troughs. There is a slight chance of
thunderstorms Thursday night as well as Friday and Saturday.
High pressure then returns to close out the weekend and will become
established offshore for early next week. Mainly dry conditions are
expected Sunday through early next week.
Forecast daytime temperatures during the long term are cooler than
normal Wednesday and Thursday with high temperatures more in the 60s
and then are close to normal Friday and into the weekend as high
temperatures reach more into the 70s. Low temperatures are mostly in
the 50s. Temperatures appear to start warming up next Monday with
forecast highs reaching more in the upper 70s to near 80.
Blended in MAV/MET/NBM/ for high temperature forecast
Wednesday, used a blend of CONSRaw and NBM for lows Wednesday
night and highs on Thursday. Used NBM for temperatures
thereafter.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains over the area through Tuesday.
VFR. Light S-SW to variable winds through the night. Southerly
sea breezes starting late Tuesday morning into afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday night: VFR.
Wednesday-Friday: MVFR likely. IFR possible Thursday and Friday.
Showers likely Wednesday night and Thursday, otherwise, a chance of
showers.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, MVFR possible with a chance of showers. SW
wind G15-20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Generally tranquil conditions expected on all waters through at
least Wednesday afternoon with a weak pressure gradient and high
pressure nearby.
Forecast waves below SCA on non-ocean waters for the marine long
term Wednesday through Saturday night. Forecast seas on the ocean
below SCA Wednesday and much of Wednesday night. SCA seas start to
develop late Wednesday night on parts of the ocean. SCA seas are
expected on the ocean Thursday and Thursday night. The SCA seas
could linger into Friday on eastern parts of the ocean with
otherwise below SCA conditions. Below SCA conditions persist Friday
night and then return to SCA levels is forecast Saturday and
Saturday night.
Forecast wind gusts could get to SCA levels for portions of the
ocean Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. It will be marginal. Non-
ocean zones have gusts maxing out near 20 kt. Below SCA wind gusts
are then forecast Thursday night through Saturday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the weekend.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical levels running high with new moon.
Localized minor coastal flooding possible during the next
couple of high tide cycles with astronomically high water levels
from a new moon occurring this evening.
Coastal Flood Statement remains for this evening`s high tide
cycle for coastal Fairfield CT along the western LI Sound, as
well as for the back bays of Nassau, Queens, and the most
vulnerable locales in Brooklyn. Water levels here could touch or
just exceed minor flood thresholds.
Additional minor coastal flooding possible around times of high
tide mid to late week with easterly flow and fetch. This would
be for the South Shore Bays and perhaps portions of the Lower NY
Harbor and Western Long Island Sound shorelines.
Regarding rip current risk, the forecast has a low rip current
risk for Tuesday and Wednesday along the ocean beaches. Winds
will remain light, generally under 10 kts, along with seas of
only 1 to 2 ft.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MW
NEAR TERM...JC/JM/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JM/MW
HYDROLOGY...JM/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...