739
FXUS61 KOKX 271944
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
344 PM EDT Tue May 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will remain offshore on Wednesday. Meanwhile, low
pressure and its associated frontal system will approach from
the west, moving over the area Wednesday night into Thursday. A
series of low pressure systems move through the region Thursday
night through Saturday night. Weak high pressure returns Sunday
into early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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High pressure remains east of the region tonight. Meanwhile,
low pressure and an upper level trough approaches from the west.
It will remain cloudy overnight. Warm air advection ahead of
the trough, along with some forcing may result in a sprinkle or
light rain around daybreak, but most of the measurable rain
should hold off until after sunrise. Lows tonight will fall into
the 50s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The region will remain stuck between low pressure and upper level
trough to the west and surface high pressure and ridging aloft to
the east. Expect a cloudy day, with rain chances slowly increasing,
mainly across the western half of the CWA through the daytime.
Portions of CT and Long Island may remain dry through much of the
day, as the precipitation runs into drier air. Expect cooler
temperatures with highs only in the 60s. There is a chance interior
CT reaches the lower 70s if cloud cover is thinner across this area.
Rain chances then increase Wednesday night into Thursday as the low
finally moves over the area. Expect POPs to increase and become
likely. The forecast guidance does differ a bit on the amplitude of
the shortwave and associated energy moving across the area. A
flatter guidance generally brings in less precip overall as the
forcing is weaker, while a slightly more amplified solutions have a
bit more precip along. Even with these differences, QPF amounts
remain low, generally remaining below a half inch, CWA wide.
Temperatures Wednesday night will fall into the 50s and Thursday
climb into the upper 60s and lower 70s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A full amplitude trough, with an embedded closed low, from eastern
Canada into the Gulf coast states Thursday night gradually builds
to the east coast Friday and remains into late Sunday before moving
offshore Sunday night into early next week.
With a series of vort maxes rotating through the upper low and
trough, a series of lows will track along a nearly stationary
frontal boundary from off the New England coast into the mid
Atlantic. The last of the waves moves through Saturday bringing a
cold front across the region. So a long period of unsettled weather
is expected from Thursday night into Saturday night.
With rising heights aloft Sunday night into the beginning of next
week, and surface high pressure building into the region, dry
weather returns. Followed the NBM deterministic guidance, which has
trended lower for daytime highs Friday and Saturday, with
temperatures generally below normal. Night time lows will be near
normal.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure situated to the south and east of the area will
gradually give way to a frontal system approaching from the SW
into Wednesday.
This will be a mainly VFR forecast with MVFR conditions expected
to develop in rain late Wednesday afternoon/evening for the 30h
TAF sites.
S winds around 10 kt at the coast, weaker inland, will gradually
diminish and veer this evening to the SSW. Winds will the back
to the SSE at 5 to 10 kt in the morning, becoming ESE in the
afternoon. There is some uncertainty with how quickly winds back
on Wednesday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Winds may vary by 20 degrees on either side of 180 this afternoon.
Timing and lowering categories Wednesday afternoon may be later
than forecast. Wind shift could also be delayed.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday Afternoon: MVFR conditions developing toward evening
with a chance of rain.
Wednesday night and Thursday: Rain likely. MVFR cond expected,
IFR possible late at night into the morning. E-SE winds G15-20kt
at the NYC metro/coastal terminals at night.
Friday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers. MVFR or lower cigs
possible toward evening at the coastal terminals.
Friday night ad Saturday: Chance of showers and possibly a
tstm. MVFR cond likely, IFR possible. SW winds G15-20kt in
the afternoon.
Sunday...VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
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Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Wednesday with
high pressure in control. Increasing SE flow Wednesday night into
Thursday may lead to wind gusts close to 25 kt and seas building to
near 5 ft on the ocean. The flow may weaken a bit on Thursday, but
seas will remain elevated.
Ocean seas remain at SCA levels Thursday night as southerly winds
continue ahead of a cold front. With the passage of the cold front
winds shifts to SW to W and ocean seas gradually diminish below 5
feet by Friday morning. Ocean seas briefly remain below SCA levels
Friday, then with increasing southerly winds ahead of another front
ocean seas likely build to advisory levels late Friday night into
Saturday. Ocean seas remain elevated Saturday night, and gradually
subside below 5 feet west to east during Sunday as winds shift to
the west to southwest.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts expected through early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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There is a low rip current risk at ocean beaches through Wednesday
with 1-2 ft seas and winds generally 10 kt or less.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MET
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...