015
FXUS61 KOKX 280943
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
543 AM EDT Wed May 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remains offshore today as low pressure
and its associated frontal system approach from the west. The
system impacts the area tonight into Thursday. Another low
pressure likely develops near the Middle Atlantic on Friday. The
low passes through Friday night on its way to New England on
Saturday, with a trailing cold front moving through on Saturday.
The low will meander over eastern Canada early next week as
high pressure slowly builds from the west.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure centered offshore will continue to ridge back
over the area into this afternoon. At the same time, ridging
aloft will gradually slide to the east of the area through the
evening. A broad area of shortwave energy approaches ahead of a
larger upper low near the Great Lakes. Surface low pressure and
its associated frontal system gradually lift towards the area
from the south and west. Warm advection ahead of the frontal
system is producing light rain across southeast PA and
central/southern NJ, but having a difficult time spreading NE
towards the area due to the lingering ridging. A few sprinkles
and pockets of light rain are possible from the NYC metro west
into NE NJ this morning.
The surface ridging should gradually weaken this afternoon, which
will allow rain to slowly develop from southwest to northeast.
It will still take several more hours to reach eastern Long
Island and southeastern CT, which may remain dry into the early
evening. The rain will continue to be light where it does occur
this afternoon and early evening. Temperatures should remain
below normal in the middle to upper 60s. Cloud cover may be
thinnest across interior southern CT where temperatures could
reach or slightly exceed 70 degrees.
Shortwave energy will move overhead tonight as a broad trough
slides across the area. The surface ridging will continue
weakening, which will allow more organized forcing to spread
northward. A weak secondary area of low pressure will also lift
towards the Long Island coast overnight. The combination of
these features will bring rain tonight into early Thursday
morning. The rain should remain mostly light, but there could be
a few pockets of brief moderate rain, especially the western
half of the area.
Rainfall amounts Wednesday look to range from one quarter to under
a half inch.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The secondary low pressure moves east of the area through
Thursday. Steady rain early in the morning should end by midday
with just a chance of some spotty rain late morning into the
afternoon. Otherwise, the main upper level trough will remain
well to our west through Friday. The frontal system impacting
the area Wednesday night into Thursday may slide south of the
area by Thursday night. Highs on Thursday range from the lower
to middle 60s across eastern Long Island and southeast
Connecticut to the upper 60s and lower 70s elsewhere. Low clouds
may hang on through much of the day across the eastern half of
the area, which could lead to temperatures ending up a bit
cooler than currently forecast.
The upper trough is progged to amplify as it slides slowly towards
the east coast through Friday. Models have come into better
agreement with another low pressure developing over the Middle
Atlantic on Friday in response to the amplifying trough along the
nearby frontal boundary. The main synoptic forcing from this system
holds off till Friday night, but continued SW flow aloft and subtle
areas of energy may pass across the area. This supports the
continuation of slight chance PoPs through Friday afternoon.
Temperatures Friday look to end up slightly below normal in the
lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Guidance coming into sharper focus with evolution of a
longwave upper trough over eastern North America and related
shortwaves pivoting through it Fri night into Sat. One shortwave
trough moving from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic will phase
with the longwave trough Fri night, with an intensifying sfc
low moving over the area Fri night and then heading up into New
England on Sat. Guidance shows a stripe of moderate to locally
heavy rain just W of the low track as it moves through, with
amts over an inch possible inland NW of NYC. Another shortwave
trough pivoting around the longer wave trough over the east is
likely to generate showers and possibly a few tstms on Sat.
Improving wx conditions expected for Sunday into early next week as
the low moves up into ern Canada and weak high pressure slowly
builds from the west.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure to the east will gradually give way to weak
low pressure approaching from the Mid Atlantic region and then
passing just south of Long Island late tonight.
VFR most of today as OVC high/mid level clouds gradually lower.
There is a chance of some light rain at KEWR as early as 14Z-15Z,
then expanding northeast into the NYC metro area early this
afternoon and points north/east during the late day hours.
MVFR cigs arrive at the NYC metros by about 21Z-22Z, with IFR cigs
there and at KISP/KHPN by 03Z. Farther north/east, expect cigs to
lower to MVFR this evening, with IFR at KBDR/KSWF after midnight.
Light S flow should increase to 5-10 kt by this afternoon, then back
SE from late afternoon into this evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
High confidence on timing of lowering cigs late today into this
evening. Winds could back SE sooner than fcst especially closer to
the coast.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Late tonight: Rain likely with IFR cond expected, except mainly MVFR
at KGON.
Thursday: Chance of showers. IFR cond in the morning improve to MVFR
in the afternoon, and to VFR late at the NYC metros.
Thursday night: VFR/IFR cigs possible late.
Friday: MVFR/IFR cigs likely.
Friday night and Saturday: Chance of showers and possibly a tstm.
MVFR cond likely, IFR possible. SW-W winds G15-20kt in the
afternoon.
Sunday...VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Wednesday
with high pressure in control. Increasing SE flow tonight into
early Thursday morning may lead to wind gusts 20-25 kt. Seas
will also build to 5-6 ft through Thursday. Winds look marginal,
but enough confidence in elevated seas for an SCA on the ocean
late tonight through Thursday. 5 ft seas may linger Thursday
night and the Advisory may need to be extended. Conditions on
the waters should then remain below SCA levels on Friday.
A period of stronger WSW-W flow gusting to 25 kt may be possible on
Sat in the wake of low pressure passing through Fri night. Hazardous
ocean seas over 5 ft are also likely Sat into Sat night, which may
may take some time to subside E of Fire Island Inlet daytime
Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through Friday afternoon.
A period of moderate to heavy rain is possible Friday night
mainly inland NW of NYC as developing low pressure passes
through, with amts over an inch possible. No more than nuisance
impacts expected.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides will gradually subside through the end of
the week. Water levels will remain below minor flood stage at
the most vulnerable locations of the south shore back bays and
western LI Sound with high tide tonight. A building SE swell
Thursday may lead to localized minor flooding for these
locations with high tide Thursday night. Additional localized
minor coastal flooding is possible Friday night due to a
intensifying low pressure passing over the area.
There is a low rip current risk at ocean beaches through this
evening with with 1-2 ft seas and winds generally 10 kt or less.
The risk increases to high on Thursday due to a building seas
to 5-6 ft and SE swells.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BG/DS
HYDROLOGY...BG/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...