664
FXUS61 KOKX 282337
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
737 PM EDT Wed May 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure along the Mid Atlantic coast this evening will track
to the south and east of Long Island later tonight into Thursday.
Weak high pressure will then briefly build in for Thursday night.
Another low approaches from the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. It passes
through late Friday night on its way to New England for Saturday,
with a trailing cold front moving through late in the day into
Saturday night. The low will meander over eastern Canada early next
week as high pressure slowly builds from the west.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
An upper low over the Great Lakes and Midwest states will drive
an area of low pressure over the Mid Atlantic states northeast
tonight. The low will pass south and east of LI late tonight
into the first half of Thursday. The combination of large scale
warm advection in a deep-layered WSW flow aloft and the thermal
forcing to the north of the low track will produce a light to
moderate rainfall event overnight into Thursday morning. Rainfall
amounts continue to get bounced up slightly with each model
cycle and there is good agreement for about 0.3 to 0.6" across
the area. The highest amounts at this time look to be across NE
NJ, NYC, and LI. The rain will gradually overspread the area
from SW to NE this evening as the dry low-levels slowly moisten.
As the low approaches, winds will back to the east, becoming
strongest at the coast (10-15mph).
Lows tonight are forecast to drop into the mid and upper 50s.
This is close to normal.
On Thursday, rain in the morning may linger across far SE CT and
the twin forks into early afternoon. However, most of the area
should be dry for the afternoon with some partial clearing,
especially back to the west across NYC, NE NJ, and the Lower
Hudson Valley. Winds will then back around from the NE in the
morning to the NW in the afternoon, dropping below 10 mph. Highs
will range from the 60s across CT and eastern LI, to the lower
70s elsewhere. This is a few degrees below normal.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Weak high pressure builds quickly across the area Thursday
evening and then to the east by Friday morning. Not much change
in the airmass with dew points in the 50s and lows in the mid
up to upper 50s. May have to watch for some patchy fog
development late Thursday night due to the light winds and
moisture in place. For the time, have kept dry, but there is
some guidance showing a few showers by daybreak as weak front
approaches from the west.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models in general agreement with an h5 trough axis digging into the
Ohio Valley on Friday before shifting into the forecast area during
Saturday, then remaining nearby on Sunday. Associated surface low
approaches from the Mid-Atlantic Friday night before passing through
late at night into Saturday morning. A cold front then moves through
late in the day into the evening with the low continuing to head
north, tracking through Quebec on Sunday.
Rain will be likely with this system with the highest probabilities
(70-80%) late Friday night into Saturday as the surface low passes
through the area. Hydrologic impacts would appear to be limited in
part due to forecast PWATs and convective chances. See the hydrology
section for more details.
Although a cyclonic flow remains aloft for both Sunday and Monday,
both days likely remain dry as moisture will be limited. Deep-
layered ridging then keeps us dry through Wednesday with moderating
temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak high pressure slides northeast of the terminals this evening,
while low pressure passes just south and east of the terminals
tonight into Thursday morning.
Have pushed back timing of lowering conditions by a few hours.
Still expecting MVFR cigs this evening and IFR cigs around
midnight. Vsbys will largely stay MVFR/VFR for NYC terminals and
KSWF, but could drop down to IFR vsby for KHPN, KISP, KBDR and
KGON. Conditions likely don`t start improving until late
Thursday morning or early afternoon.
SE/E flow around 10 kt this evening, increasing to 10 to 15 kt
with occasional gusts to 20 kt overnight. With the low passing
to our south, winds back through the day on Thursday, starting
out E and becoming S/SW by the end of the day.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
High confidence in MVFR/IFR cigs, lower confidence in MVFR
vsby.
Timing of lowering and improving conditions may be off by a few
hours. Cigs have taken longer to lower than previously forecast
and timing has been pushed back in the TAF.
SE/E flow around 10 kt increasing to 10 to 15 kt with
occasional gusts to 20 kt after 02z. Low confidence wind
forecast on Thursday with the winds consistently backing through
the day.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday night: MVFR/IFR cigs possible late.
Friday: MVFR/IFR cigs likely.
Friday night and Saturday: Chance of showers and possibly a tstm.
MVFR cond likely, IFR possible. SW-W winds G15-20kt in the
afternoon.
Sunday and Monday...VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A strengthening easterly flow will produce a period of marginal
SCA conditions on the ocean waters later tonight into Thursday.
Winds will be marginal with the potential for gusts up to 25kt
late tonight into Thursday morning. Wind become light in the
afternoon. However, a building SE swell will produce a period of
seas around 5 ft late tonight into Thursday, likely lingering
east of Fire Island Inlet in the first half of Thursday night.
Conditions on the waters remain below SCA levels on Friday. A period
of stronger westerly flow gusting to 25 kt may be possible on
Saturday in the wake of low pressure passing through in the morning.
Seas over 5 ft are also likely Sat into Sat night, which may may
take some time to subside E of Fire Island Inlet during the daytime
Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through Friday afternoon.
A half inch to inch of rain with locally higher amounts will be
possible from Friday night through Saturday. Hydrologic impacts so
far appear to be limited to minor urban/poor drainage flooding.
Forecast PWATs are just average to slightly above average for this
time of the year, but elevated convection along with a chance of a
llj and mid level shortwave passing through could help maximize the
potential of the PWAT values late Friday night into Saturday
morning. Anticipating mainly light to moderate rainfall, but a low
threat of heavy downpours exists Friday night and Saturday morning.
Can`t even rule out brief heavy downpours Saturday afternoon since
thunderstorms will still be possible.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides will gradually subside through the end of
the week. Water levels will remain below minor flood stage at
the most vulnerable locations of the south shore back bays and
western LI Sound with high tide tonight. A building SE swell
Thursday may lead to localized minor flooding for these
locations with high tide Thursday night. Additional localized
minor coastal flooding is possible Friday night due to a
intensifying low pressure passing over the area.
There is a low rip current risk at ocean beaches through this
evening with with 1-2 ft seas and winds generally 10 kt or less.
The risk increases to high on Thursday due to a building seas
to 5-6 ft and SE swells.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday
evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 2 AM EDT Friday for
ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Thursday to 2 AM EDT Friday for
ANZ353.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...JT/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...