438
FXUS61 KOKX 311209
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
809 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure lifts north of the area this morning, followed by
a cold frontal passage this afternoon and evening. A surface
trough moves through Sunday evening. High pressure then gradually
builds in and remains in control through mid-week, with a few
more weak surface troughs swinging through early in the week. A
cold front looks to move through sometime Thursday or Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Winds have been increased with this update to account for gusts
that have occurred higher than expected.
Moderate to heavy rainfall is beginning to taper with the low
moving into the Lower Hudson Valley and SW CT. A Flood Watch
remains in effect for the Lower Hudson Valley through 11 am.
This area has racked up 1-3" inches of rain with many of the
higher amounts in Orange county.
Some wrap-around precipitation will move through mid to late
morning through much of the area as the low exits north and
east.
As we get into late morning and early afternoon, the low will
continue to exit northeast of the area. This brings in drier
air & cuts off most of the more intense precip. Spotty to
isolated showers may still occur into the early afternoon.
Another chance for brief downpours with showers and thunderstorms
may occur with a frontal passage behind the departing low late this
afternoon into early tonight. Instability is marginal, so only a few
rumbles of thunder are expected. Flood impacts will be minimal given
the quicker progression of these showers with the front and given
coverage will be less compared to this morning.
Ahead of and with the front, a LLJ with move through west to
east, which could lead to a spike in winds, leading to gusty
conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Following the cold frontal passage, drier and cooler air will get
filtered in tonight. Cooler air will be aided by a large upper-level
low spinning over the northeast US and under westerly flow, locally.
Dry weather remains until late Sunday into early Sunday night. A few
isolated showers may briefly return late Sunday into early Sunday
night aided by pockets of mid-level energy passing with a shortwave
that rotates around the periphery of an upper-level low still
sitting over the northeast. This upper-low will remain in place
through at least Sun night, holding cooler air in the region.
Low temps both tonight and Sunday night drop into the low-50s at the
coast, with mid/upper-40s in the interior. Sunday`s highs will max
out in the mid-60s to near 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Troughing in the mid and upper levels remains over the northeast
through early next week with several shortwaves rotating through. In
turn, several weak surface troughs will swing through as high
pressure tries to build in from the southwest. These features will
not result in anything other than some cloud cover. High pressure
that is centered to our south will slide offshore Tuesday night but
remain in control through at least Wednesday. A cold front then
looks to move through sometime Thursday or Friday resulting in some
showers and thunderstorms.
There is some forecast uncertainty mainly for mid next week as the
ECMWF has shown a cutoff low just to our south that lingers near the
area in some past runs. This would result in cooler temperatures,
more cloud cover and maybe even some precip. However the guidance
does push this feature farther east so the trend will have to be
watched. Other guidance is showing this feature, but much farther
east and not impacting us. General consensus is for ridging to build
in and a deep S/SW flow to bring warm temperatures up into the 80s
for mid week.
Temps will be a bit below normal on Sunday, normal Monday and
then warm for mid week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure has lifted to the NE of the NYC terminals, making
for a very challenging wind forecast this morning. There was
also a period of gusts to around 40kt around the NYC terminals
from 09Z to 10Z. This may have been the result of drier air
wrapping around the low and enhancing winds on the backside of
the low. A cold front will then follow in the afternoon.
Expect improvement to MVFR this morning, then VFR with
occasional MVFR in showers and/or a isolated thunderstorm this
afternoon/early this evening. MVFR ceilings may linger through
the day at KSWF.
Winds will veer around to the WNW this morning with gusts
20-30kt. A few higher gusts will be possible. Winds then
diminish this evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments are likely, especially this morning, for timing of
category changes, wind shifts, and timing of increasing gusts.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday through Wednesday...VFR.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A SCA has been issued on all waters through this evening. Winds
will reach SCA criteria on non-ocean waters while ocean waters
waves will also meet SCA criteria. Its possible some isolated
low-end gales could transpire on ocean waters, but will be to
short in time and not widespread enough for a Gale Warning
issuance. The SCA will continue on ocean waters only (for waves)
into tonight.
SCA conditions linger on the ocean waters into Sunday with very
marginal 20-25 kt gusts and 5 foot seas. Thereafter, sub SCA
conditions expected through at least mid-week. 5 to 6 foot seas
could return late week ahead of an approaching cold front.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
A flood watch remains in effect for Orange County through 11 AM.
This area received 2 to 3 inches in about 6 to 9 hour period.
The area remains under an FLS, with the potential for an
additional quarter to half inch. The current thinking is any
flooding will be minor nuisance, but some longer term flooding
on area river and stream is possible and will need to be
monitored.
There are no hydrologic concerns Sunday through the end of next
week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
No additional coastal flooding is expected this weekend into
early next week.
With a 5-7 ft southerly swell at 7-8 s, high rip current activity is
expected today at the Suffolk County beaches. Swell height and
period are a bit lower farther west, where a moderate risk is
in effect. A moderate risk is expected for all beaches on Sunday
with lowering swell and still no real onshore wind component.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for NYZ067>070.
High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ080-081.
NJ...Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for NJZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
332-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ335-
338.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/JT
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BR/JT
HYDROLOGY...BR/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...//