431
FXUS61 KOKX 022146
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
Issued by National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
546 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Offshore high pressure remains through midweek. High pressure
then weakens, allowing for a frontal system to approach from the
west. The associated cold front enters within the area late this
week and may linger nearby through the weekend before moving
east of the area early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Surface trough moves across this evening. High pressure then
builds thereafter but will have its center well south of the
region. This will keep a relatively warmer airmass in place.
Despite light northerly winds and mostly clear sky conditions,
lows tonight expected to be several degrees warmer than the
previous night, ranging from mid 40s to upper 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Offshore high pressure remains with dry conditions continuing.
The region becomes established with a persistent SW flow. Warm
air advection will increase as a a result. Tuesday`s forecast
highs are about 5 to 8 degrees warmer than the previous day,
ranging from upper 70s to lower 80s for a majority of the
region. Tuesday night, likewise, expect the warming trend to
continue as lows just will be mainly from lower 50s to lower
60s.
Side note, there has been recent smoke aloft reported from
Canadian wildfires. This has resulted in some haze in the sky
but not significant enough to result to reduce visibilities at
the surface. The HRRR model shows a relative increase in smoke
Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night so perhaps another hazy
sunset is in store for Tuesday evening.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The synoptic ridge pattern gradually shifts to more of a trough
structure with rain eventually returning to the forecast late
week and towards the weekend.
At the surface, offshore high pressure remains dominant
Wednesday but eventually weakens Thursday into Friday. A frontal
system from the west then approaches with its associated cold
front. This cold front lingers around the area after it moves in
before eventually shifting east of the area late weekend towards
early next week. Rain shower chances highest Friday through
Saturday night and then these rain shower chances lower
thereafter.
Warming trend continues to start with the warmest forecast
temperatures Wednesday through Friday, with upper 80s to near
90 for some locations. Lower temperature trend thereafter with
more rain shower chances in the forecast and eventually more
northerly flow late weekend into early next week.
There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Thursday, Friday as
well as the first half of the weekend. The more trough synoptic
pattern will allow for greater moisture in the atmosphere with
higher PW values. With warmer temperatures forecast Thursday and
Friday, more low level instability would be available for
thunderstorm growth.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak surface trough moves across early this evening. High
pressure then builds in and quickly offshore through Tuesday
afternoon.
VFR conditions remain through the TAF period. Winds near 10 kts
or less through the TAF period. Sea breezes have developed
across Long Island and the Connecticut coast, with a W to SW
flow at the other terminals. There is some uncertainty if a
late day sea breeze reaches KEWR. Wind direction is variable to
NW flow tonight into early Tuesday.
Expecting more sea breezes Tuesday afternoon along with
slightly higher wind speeds. All terminals get to more southerly
component with winds Tuesday but KSWF likely stays more
westerly.
Smoke aloft from Canadian wildfires may be observed but is not
expected to impact low level visibility.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible pertaining to the timing of the sea breeze.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday: VFR. S-SW wind gusts to near 20 kt possible in the
afternoon.
Tuesday night through Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: Mainly VFR.
Friday: Possible MVFR/IFR with chance of showers/tstms.
Saturday: Possible MVFR/IFR with showers likely. Chance of
tstms.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Conditions expected to remain below SCA thresholds on all waters
through Thursday night.
Thereafter, conditions trends go up with seas on the ocean. So,
SCA will become more probable Friday through the first half of
the weekend on the ocean. Non-ocean zones are forecast to remain
below SCA thresholds.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through midweek. Late week, there are low
probabilities for thunderstorms and forecast models indicates PW
values near 1.5 to 1.75 inches. Some locally heavy rain is
possible, especially with thunderstorms, with minor flooding
possible.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
There is a low risk for the development of rip current at the
ocean beaches Tuesday and Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM/MET
MARINE...JM
HYDROLOGY...JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MET